Oregon St Preview #2

If you like defensive basketball (or are a Big 10 fan), I hope you weren't watching last night.  The Buffs and Ducks combined for 171 points on over 54% shooting, as they strained the scoreboard through the 90-81 Oregon win.  Can't somebody please have the common decency to miss an open jumper!

It's painful to think about the fact that the Buffs were up five at half, shooting 63%, and silencing the home Oregon crowd in the process.  The Ducks, however, took the Buffs example and only improved on it, scoring 54 points on 65% shooting in the second half.  Are we sure those rims were regulation size?

The offense was so contagious that even slumping Buffs guard Carlon Brown regained his scoring touch, as he provided 20 points on 8-11 shooting (3-3 from deep).  'Dre was close to his season averages, dropping 12/8, and probably only missed yet another double-double due to no one missing a damn jumper all night long.

The reports of Carlon's demise were clearly mistaken.  Hopefully his performance carries over into next week.  From: the BDC.

Duck stars Devoe Joseph and Garrett Sim combined for 43 points on 17-26 shooting, including 7-11 from beyond the arc.  They decimated the Buffs perimeter defense, and kept any hopes of a CU comeback at bay.

I was shocked to find that Joseph and Sim did in fact miss some shots last night.  From: the BDC

Other than the glaring defensive stats, there were some other cracks in the Buffs effort last night.  After a week in Boulder spent holding onto the basketball (only 11 combined turnovers against Cal and Stanford), CU got back to coughing the ball up, allowing 27 points on 15 TO's.  Additionally, the Buffs allowed 11 offensive rebounds.

The Buffs simply didn't play enough defense to win.  While the offense looked about as good as it has all season, you can't allow a home team to shoot over 60% in the second half and expect to win.  With any hope of a first-round bye probably dashed, the only thing left to do is go for that 20th win against Oregon State.

Speaking of which, tip-off from Corvallis is set for 2pm tomorrow.  The regular-season finale can be seen on FSN/ROOT affiliates, while Mark Johnson will have the radio call on 760 AM.

My preview of the first game can be found here.

Click below for my preview of the rematch...


When last we met - 


For the second consecutive year, the Buffs housed the Beavers in Boulder.  Despite some early trouble with the full court press, the Buffs quickly pulled away from OSU, and sped to a comfortable 82-60 win.  The game was never really in doubt come the second frame, and the home fans were treated to appearances from seldom used bench players Trey Eckloff, Ben Mills, and even Beau Webb.

Carlon and the Buffs easily flew past the Beavers for the second consecutive year.  From: the BDC

For the game, the Buffs shot 52%, doled out 19 assists, and out-rebounded the Beavers by 12.  It was the very definition of domination.  Hell, the Buffs even managed to hold the Pac-12's leading scorer, Jared Cunningham, to 12 points on 5-12 shooting.

It was the front-line Buffs who lead the way.  Andre Roberson had his traditional double-double, dropping 16/15, and he received support from senior Austin Dufault, who chipped in 14 on 6-7 shooting.  A total of five Buffs scored in double-figures, and everyone seemed to get into the action.

If only CU could play the Beavers in Boulder a few more times...




What's changed? - 


If anything, OSU has gotten worse.  After a strong non-conference start (really the only Pac-12 team who can lay claim to such a thing), they ran a flat once Pac-12 opponents began to appear on the schedule.  Even after their losing trip to Boulder, they've only managed two victories (both over Utah), and have lost their last six games against non-Ute opponents.

Jared Cunningham can't do it all, and the Beavers have struggled as a result.

A season that, with early wins over Texas and Cal, had once seemed promising, has now turned into a nightmare for beleaguered head coach Craig Robinson.

This is a team adrift if a sea of sub-par performances, seemingly capable on offense, but well off the page defensively.  They haven't held an opponent not named USC or Utah under 70 points once since beating Chicago St back in late December.  Solid teams score seemingly at-will against them.  Maybe that 1-3-1 match-up zone isn't the answer afterall...

The Beavers' bright spot continues to be Jared Cunningham.  He's scoring over 18 points per night, and has scored in double figures in each conference game this season.  Barring some final day craziness, he's got the scoring title locked up.




Prediction -

Obviously, if this game were being played in Boulder, I'd like the Buffs by more than 20.  CU has proven that they can crush the Beavers at altitude, and have won the last two meetings by a combined 48 points.  Considering that, I'm sure the Beavers would like the regain a bit of pride against Dear Old CU, and try and make the second half at least competitive.

Still, I like the Buffs to win.  Home court advantage is only worth so much, and Coach Boyle seems to know how to break the Beaver press. 

CU gets their 20th win, and a little momentum headed into Los Angeles.

CU 76 - OSU 65


GO BUFFS!  POUND THE BEAVERS!