The seeding picture is a little clearer for the Buffs as they eye next week's Pac-12 Tournament in Las Vegas, but only just so. They currently sit in a three-way tie for 8th place, holding individual tie-breakers over Stanford and Washington State should they be needed (thanks to the home win over current conference leader Oregon). Depending on the results this weekend, the Buffs could finish anywhere from 7th to 10th, with any hope of 6th (or even 5th) dashed by the loss to Utah last week (more on that later). Regardless of how things work out this week, however, the math will be weird.
The first talking point regards that three-way tie mentioned above and that tie-breaker the Buffs supposedly hold. That advantage could be imperiled with a loss to Stanford Thursday night at the CEC, with the three teams still remaining tied when all is said and done. The Cardinal would them hold the multi-team tiebreaker advantage, thanks to their 2-1 record against the Buffs and Cougars (CU would be just 2-2). If Colorado is alone in a tie with either, however, the Oregon win plays, and CU takes a step up the seep sheet. A win against Stanford on Thursday avoids that mess completely, guaranteeing the Buffs no worse than 8th place.
Past that, CU could swing up to 7th with some expected help from Arizona State and a sweep of the Bay Area schools. ASU holds the tie-breaker over Colorado, thanks to their head-to-head win in Tempe, and a half-game advantage in the standings, but only have a game against Arizona left to play -- an assumed loss. To that end, if the Buffs get two wins against Stanford and Cal, leaving them with eight overall, 7th place is probably theirs.
Let's say for a minute that all four teams - ASU, Colorado, Stanford, and Washington State - finish with seven wins, what happens then? In a scenario where CU beat Stanford, the Buffs would still get 7th, thanks to much bullshit and that win over Oregon. In the flip scenario, with the Cardinal winning in Boulder on Thursday, Colorado slides back to 9th. That underscores the value of the game Thursday night. If the Buffs beat Stanford, they're 7th or 8th; if they lose to the Cardinal, it's 9th or 10th. The Cal result would then move them up or down a seed line from there.
What does all of that really mean? With the stunning result in Tucson Saturday evening (more on
that later, as well), the winner of the 8/9 game looks to get Oregon in the quarterfinals, with the 7/10 victor probably getting Arizona. If you think CU can survive the first day, that's your choice: the Ducks or the Wildcats -- pick your poison. Me? I'd favor Arizona, I guess, thinking that a Thursday meeting before the red-clad horde arrives in full wouldn't be as bad as facing the Oregon machine in full post-season mode, but either option is terrible. In each case, I would consider the Buffs, at best, two-and-done in Las Vegas.
--
Today in the bag, I'm talking the loss to the Utes, where the Buffs go from here, and how the rest of the Pac-12 fared over the weekend.
Click below for the bag...