Hartford Teaser

The end of non-conference play is upon us.  After beating up on an obviously exhausted and out-classed NAU squad the Friday before Christmas, the Buffs finish the "pre-season" portion of their schedule against another minnow, the Hartford Hawks.

Spencer and the Buffs hope the romp over NAU speaks of good things to come.  From: the BDC

Just think, less than a month ago, the Buffs were in Lawrence, KS, playing the crème de la crème of blue-blood basketball programs in their historic arena.  Tomorrow, they get the University of Hartford at the CEC - a program which, until the schedule was released, I could of sworn was D2. I guess you could say that it's part of the beauty of non-conference play in college basketball, that you get to see a wide swath of the competitive spectrum, but that's a serious drop-off in degree of difficulty.  Much like the NAU game, regardless of outcome, CU's RPI will drop.

I don't intend to demean the Hawks (and their empty wikipedia page), who I'm sure are rightly proud of both their school and program, and you only have to look back to the Texas Southern game to see what can happen if you let the little fish get acclimated to the water, but holy hell it's tough to get excited about this one.  The Buffs play at Arizona Wednesday.  How are they not looking past the lowly Hawks towards the Pac-12 title rematch in Tucson?  I certainly would be.  Shit, up until 10 minutes before writing this teaser, the #4 Wildcats had been dominating my hoops-related thoughts.

You can talk all you want about how the next game is the most important, and how you can't look ahead, but human nature dictates that Hartford would be getting second-billing in the minds of the players.  They're certainly getting second billing in mine. 

Therein lies the danger.  It's cold, campus is dead, the players have spent more time at home with their families than on the court practicing, and the opponent looks like a cake-walk.  I'm not going to come out and call this a trap game, 'cause CU should win easily regardless of how focused they are on the Hawks, but the avalanche of distracting factors is enough to give me pause.  Hopefully, the Buffs come out red-hot, like they did against Northern Arizona, and put to bed any hope of a competitive effort the Hawks may have.

Tip-off is scheduled for high noon tomorrow.  For those out of town, you can watch the proceedings on the Pac-12 Network.  Radio coverage is set for 850 KOA.

Third year Hartford coach John Gallagher seems to believe in two things: creating turnovers, and taking buckets of three pointers.  In that vein, the Hawks are quite successful.  Over Gallagher's tenure, Hartford has routinely posted defensive turnover rates near 24% (well above the national average), and in his first two seasons at the helm, the Hawks bordered on taking 50% of their shots from behind the arc (top-3 in 3ptA/FGA in '10-'11, and '11-'12).

Coach Gallagher loves to see some threes.

Still, those two and a half years as head Hawk have been mostly losing years for Gallagher, as the team struggled through 42 losses in his first two seasons.  You can kind of excuse last season's struggle, as the team was mostly freshmen, including three frosh starters, in '11-'12, but the numbers don't lie, and 42 losses is a huge anchor.  Throw in one of the worst offensive efficiencies in the nation (consistently right around .9 ppp), and ugliness has followed the losing.

The ship may be righting itself, however.  Starting with conference play last season, the Hawks have been on a strong run of 16 wins in 30 games.  None of the wins are against any team that will ruffle feathers, but you can at least notice some improvement as Gallagher continues to mold the program.

For a team that is so reliant on taking (and sometimes making) three pointers, it's surprising that their primary scoring option is a post-forward.  6-6 sophomore post Mark Nwakamma leads the team in both points (12.8) and rebounds (5.3) per game, and winds up taking nearly 32% of his team's shots when he's on the court.  The Austin, TX product was an America East Conference All-Rookie selection last year.  His biggest problem is not only struggling to get to the line enough for his position and volume, but also missing nearly half his attempts when he gets there (54% on the year).

Nwakamma is a good small-conference power forward.

Sophomore Yolonzo Moore II is the primary deep threat.  The 6-2 sophomore makes over 48% of his outside shots, and is the team's best pure shooter.  Fellow sophomore Wes Cole is more of a volume shooter, as he's taken nearly twice as many 3's as he has free throw and 2pt attempts combined.  The 6-0 sophomore is not an Omar Strong-level hucker (no one else is, for that matter), but he could still hurt if he gets hot. 6-0 freshman Evan Cooper rounds out the back-court, and makes over 43% of his deep attempts.  Perimeter defense, long a hit-or-miss prospect with the Buffs, will be key.

Moore II is the primary back-court threat.

The final starting piece of the Hawk puzzle is 6-6 swing forward Nate Sikma.  The sophomore also appeared on the AEC's All-Rookie team last season, and posts a respectable 7/5 each night.

The big thing to note about the Hawks is their youth.  All of their key contributors are either freshman or sophomores, with only two upper classmen, junior Oren Faulk and senior John Peterson, seeing any meaningful action.  Combined with the recent turn towards .500 play, that makes me believe that the future bodes well for the Hawks from the University of Hartford.  It wouldn't surprise me at all to see them take the AEC's automatic bid in either of the next two seasons, and appear as a 15-ish seed in the Tournament.

For tomorrow, however, they look to be a long-shot to challenge CU.  Nwakamma isn't nearly enough to scare CU inside, and the shooters don't make up enough of a volume to frighten with the "streaky" factor.  Unless they all get outrageously hot, the Buffs should claim victory. 

CU 81 - Hartford 61

GO BUFFS!  PROVE ME RIGHT, AND END NON-CONFERENCE PLAY WITH A BANG!

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Since you're all going to be up at the CEC tomorrow watching the man's team take down the vaunted Hawks, why not stick around after the conclusion to check out the #23 CU women's squad take on New Mexico?  The tentative tip for that one is 2:30, and your men's admission is good for both games.

Go Buffs!

NAU wrap

While the Buffs were tipping off against Northern Arizona, I was making my way to DIA for a flight home to Chicago.  All along the ride across E-470, the wait in security, and the downtime at the gate, Mark Johnson and Chad Brown were my companions, neatly describing the nearly perfect CU performance.  It made the experience fly by (pun mostly unintended).

Too easy, Master Chief.  From: the BDC

While my trip to the airport was smooth and uneventful, the clash with NAU was even more so.  The Buffs came out of the tunnel red-hot, and never seemed challenged by the Lumberjacks en route to a breezy 98-51 victory.  I kind of felt bad for the Lumberjacks.  Playing their third game in five days, they were ill prepared to march into the CEC and pose any level of challenge to the Buffs, who had been on break for the last week.

This was the body-bag game CU had been looking for, more scrimmage than actual contest.  The blowout allowed Coach Boyle and crew to work on a few things in sore need of addressing, while still resting up for the start of Pac-12 play.

Askia Booker lead the way, scoring 10 of CU's first 12 points, before finishing up with 17.  Spencer Dinwiddie also had a spectacular game, dropping 15/6/5/4 in only 16 minutes of play.  The pair of sophomore guards combined to hit 14 of the 16 shots they took from the field, sparking the team to a 66.7% shooting night.  Imagine what they could've done with a full compliment of minutes against the underwhelming Lumberjacks...

Ski also found some time to welcome new football coach Mike MacIntyre to Boulder.  From: the BDC

The 47-point spread also allowed the bench to get involved in a way that they hadn't before.  Xavier Johnson notched a career high 17 points, including 3-of-3 from behind the arc, to easily lead the bench mob in scoring.  Jeremy Adams and Xavier Talton also had nice evenings, combining for 14 points.

The 10,034 in attendance saved many of their loudest cheers for seldom used reserves Beau Gamble and Ben Mills.  Each scored their first points of the season, adding some character to the laugher of a game.  Mills, who has become a cult-hero with the C-Unit (akin to Preston Slaughter and Billy Boidock from the Patton era), heard his name chanted early in the second half.  He obliged his adoring fans with two points and five rebounds, before fumbling away a last-second chance for the team to crack the century mark.  Such is life.

Oh my God!  It's Ben Mills!  On the court!  With the clock running!  From: the BDC

In the end, the best thing I can take away from the game is this quote from NAU guard DeWayne Russell:

This is a really good program, they're really well coached. You could just see the discipline, that was the biggest thing. You could just feel the discipline and how good they were on defense.   (-link)

Coming from Russell, who has now played, and lost to, three of the Pac-12's best teams (Arizona and Oregon are the others), that means something.

In the soccer world, they talk in terms of form and class.  Form is temporary, but class is permanent.  What Russell was talking about was the class of CU, rather than the form.  You can get caught up in the 66.7% shooting, or the impressive 24 assists the Buffs handed out, but those numbers are easily forgotten when playing against better competition.  Discipline, organization, good coaching... those are the things that will serve the team well going forward, and they were on display Friday night.

Onward and upward.

Northern Arizona teaser

Before you ask, no, I do not think Coach Boyle is "looking past" Northern Arizona.  That has been the concern around BuffNation since word came down that the CU head coach was planning to turn to his bench a little more against tomorrow night's Big Sky Conference opponent.  The players are simply tired after a brutal two-week stretch (followed by finals), and the next two opponents afford a nice opportunity to play around with the roster.  But, rest assured, Tad's not going to spike a game just to prove a point.  If the reserves aren't getting it done, I have no doubt that the starters will be back on the court.

Just in case the game gets out of hand early, however, you better bring your camera, because there could be a Ben Mills sighting.

The "baby giraffe" lies in wait for his next victim.  From: the BDC

Tip-off is set for 6:30pm tomorrow evening.  Television coverage is set for Pac-12 Networks, with radio coverage on AM760.

The Lumberjacks are still trying to recover from a rough 2011-12 season which ended on a 16-game losing streak, and a particularly ugly regime change.  Last December, NAU head coach Mike Adras raised some eyebrows when he abruptly resigned from his post.  As we saw with TSU, an abrupt resignation is never a good sign, and this case was no exception. 

It was later revealed through an NAU report - which includes more redaction then most black ops files - that Adras was playing fast and loose with practice time regulations, and had a penchant for bringing boosters over for dinner with recruits. While certainly violations, a few extra practice hours and a booster-fueled dinner usually aren't enough to chase a coach.  No, what seems to be the root of the Adras resignation is a bit more salacious.  The report alleges that Adras not only created an environment of "extreme fear" amongst his charges, but that "(The players') plights appear to be systematically ignored and dismissed at every level."  Abusing your players is generally frowned upon, even more so when you're losing, so Adras suddenly found his position untenable.

For his efforts, Adras received the remainder of his salary, and a letter gratitude from the university.  You gotta love this country...

New head coach Jack Murphy, a former scout with the Nuggets and assistant at Memphis, seems to have brought with him a breath of fresh air.  Already this season, the Lumberjacks have recorded more wins over D-1 competition then they had all of last year.  The road to recovery is long, but hopefully lead with compassion.  The players certainly deserve a leader who doesn't run them into the ground. 

Murphy has NAU headed in a better direction in his first year.

The primary NAU threat is 5-11 freshman guard Dewayne Russell.  With an eFG around 53% and an offensive rating above 100, he's one of the best freshmen players in the Big Sky.  Averaging 17/4/4 each night, he's been a revelation for the beleaguered Lumberjacks.

Back-court compatriot Gabe Rogers is much less efficient.  The 6-2 senior scores nearly 16 points per game, which is not all that surprising when you consider he takes over 35% of NAU's shots when he's on the court (he averages over 9 3-point attempts per contest).  Unfortunately, that 16 ppg comes at a cost, as he's very inefficient with his attempts.  His eFG is south of 42%, and his offensive rating is stuck in the mid-80's.  Not really what you want from one of your leading scorers, although the Buffs have been burned by streaky outside shooter before...

Could Rogers "Omar Strong" the Buffs tomorrow?

Both Russell and Rogers hit 85% of their free throws, so it'd be best to keep them off the line.


The front-court is pretty light on worrying talent.  6-8 junior forward Max Jacobsen is probably their best post-threat, as he brings 8/5 to the table with a solid offensive rebounding rate (10.7%).  6-6 sophomore forward Gaellan Bewernick can also cause some headaches, but the Luberjacks are mostly devoid of any star forwards.  This is one of the shortest teams in all of division one, and CU should be able to dominate in the post.

With Russell, Jacobsen, and Bewernick all scheduled to return next season, the Lumberjacks could be a team on the rise in future years.  For now, however, CU should be able to take a solid victory from them.  Barring a ridiculous shooting display that would make Omar Strong blush, I can't help but see a Buff victory.

CU 77 - NAU 60

GO BUFFS!  BEAT THE LUMBERJACKS!

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With that, I'm off for Christmas in Chicago.  While I can't be at the CEC tomorrow night, I'll try and have some level of re-cap up Saturday before taking a few days off for the holiday.  I'll be back on the 27th to preview the final non-conference game against Hartford.

A Merry Christmas and Happy Holiday Season to you all!  Go Buffs!

Nervous fidgeting over finals break

Finals break sucks.  I had gotten used to the new-normal of life with basketball, only to have it rudely ripped away for me while the team "studies" and "practices."  Lame.  I want to see the Buffs in action, damnit!

Since basketball is now set for slow-drip until conference play starts, I've been left to pour over stat sheets to get my hoops fix.  That can only lead to one thing: freaking out over minutia.

Ever since the champions of Charleston returned from their victorious southern swing, the team has slowly dipped into stretches of inconsistent basketball, and less-than-appetizing play.  The Daily Camera's Ryan Thorburn touched on this last week, but the primary culprits have been three factors: The Pac-12's worst turnover-to-assist ratio, anemic production from bench players (only 18% of scoring comes from the bench), and woeful free throw shooting (66.4%, 230th in the nation).

Assist-to-turnover ratio is certainly worrying on the surface.  Turnovers have been abnormally high over the last two weeks (averaging 15 per game since returning from Charleston), and, while Coach Boyle's system has never relied all that heavily on dishing dimes (CU was in the 250's nationally in Assist/FGM each of the previous two seasons), this year has been especially bad (A/FGM of 39.2, good for 341st nationally).

I just chalk it up as a product of an offense that emphasizes individual creativity, while still relying on underclassmen.  Juniors and seniors have dominated the backcourt in each of the previous two seasons, and it all may just be a factor of Nate Tomlinson withdrawal.  I would expect the assist-to-turnover number to improve as the year progresses, and the young players get used to their roles (especially Spencer at the point).  Essentially, I am unconcerned.

I'm also not overly concerned with the lack of production from the bench.  Sure, only 18% of team scoring has come from non-starters, and anyone paying attention can see the team gets drastically weaker when the starters are resting, but that drop-off from the front-line is not necessarily out of the norm.  Last year, bench scoring made up only a slightly higher 24% of total production, while the Burks/Higgins year featured only 17% scoring from the reserves. 

I just don't get the feeling that it matters in the long run. The reality is that Coach Boyle has never relied on a deep bench, with bench minutes staying largely consistent over the last three years (if trending downwards) - usually in the 26% range, good for about 250th nationally.  Boyle will try to get the reserves into the flow a little more over the next two games, but I think that's more a reaction to the level of opponent and time of year. 

Honestly, is anyone really clamoring for more of what currently resides on the bench?  That'll just result in repeat appearances of the dreadful Talton/Stalzer/Chen/Booker/Harris-Tunks lineup that has popped up recently.  God help me if I have to watch any more of that garbage. 

That just leaves free throw shooting.  Nothing is more aggravating than missed free throws, and that is especially true when you consider that CU is extremely dependent on production from the line.  To date, CU scores nearly 26% of its points from the free throw line (top-20 nationally), and is 5th in the country in FTA/FGA ratio.  With that level of dependency on makes from the line, a team average just over 66% is inexcusable. 

Outside of Josh Scott, who is shooting a very respectable 76%, everyone is under-performing.  Spencer is 8% off his average from last season, Ski is an even more depressing 14% off, and Andre Roberson, who I begged to get close to 70% in my season preview, is barely cracking 50% (even worse than his freshman campaign). 

Luckily, the free throw woes have yet to cost the Buffs a game, but they will if this keeps up. There's just no shrugging off 66% shooting from the line. 

Still, in spite of these deficiencies, the Buffs have an excellent chance to enter conference play at 10-2, leaving them in prime position for a third consecutive 20-win season, and yet another post-season run.  It's easy to forget, but the program also played excruciatingly inconsistent ball in the doldrums of non-conference play in both '10-'11 and '11-'12, only to explode once conference play began. To be in this position in mid-December should be very encouraging by itself.

In addition, CBS has CU with the 5th toughest schedule in the nation, which is not surprising when you consider that, as TZISK pointed out last night, CU opponents are 69-25 in games not against the Buffs, and five of the 10 opponents have received at least one AP vote this season.  That difficult schedule may have a lot to do with some of the head-scratching statistics that have emerged over the first 10 games.  The comfort and familiarity of Pac-12 play could release some of the pressure.

In retrospect, I should probably just shut up, trust in Tad, and be happy.

Monday Grab Bag: #DontWorryBeLappe

A hearty congratulations to the CU women, who reeled in the statement win the program has been looking for.  Linda Lappe has that program running on all cylinders.

Today in the bag, I'll be recapping the win over Louisville, discussing why I wasn't there to witness it, and taking a quick look around the nation of basketball.

Click below for the bag...

Quick post: Fresno wrap

Shrugging off yet another inconsistent offensive performance, the Buffs trudged to a 50-43 win yesterday evening over the Fresno State Bulldogs.  It was a nice bounce back performance from the weekend's disastrous trip to Lawrence.  While not 'pretty,' the team got the job done, overcoming only one point from leading scorer Spencer Dinwiddie, a pair of missed dunks, 18 turnovers, and 57% shooting from the free throw line to claim their first true road win of the season.

Of course, it helps when you have a monster like Andre Roberson patrolling the paint on both ends of the court.  He dropped 17/20 on FSU, notching the first 20-plus rebound performance for CU in over a decade.  If Coach Boyle is to be believed, he even did it all without boxing out once.  'Dre is a special player, and CU needed every ounce of his talent to overcome the feisty Bulldogs away from the CEC.

'Dre had a huge night when his team needed him the most.  From: BuffStampede.com

It's probably best to look away from the CU offense right now, which continues to sputter and stall like an under-serviced engine.  I'm going to choose, instead, to focus on the defensive effort.  Fresno was held to under 30% shooting, and, despite being handed those 18 turnovers, could only turn them into 10 points.  Defense won the day, a fact I'm sure Coach Boyle will be enthused about. 

I'd also like to snidely point out that the 43 points scored by the Fresno State basketball team is 12 points fewer then the FSU football team scored against CU in the first half of their game last September.  Maybe newly minted head football coach Mike MacIntyre should ask Tad to join his still forming staff as the defensive coordinator...

Coach Boyle knows defense.  From: BuffStampede.com

The Buffs will now enjoy eight days of rest before their next game: a home date against Northern Arizona on Dec 21st.  After that, it'll be another eight days before the final non-conference game tips-off against Hartford on the 29th.   It's an expended break the team could really use.  They've played the nation's 4th toughest schedule according to CBS, and look physically and mentally drained by the early slog.  Time for rest, recuperation, studying for finals, and practice.

Onwards, and upwards...

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The annual CU non-conference road win was brought to you by Dr Andrew Maxwell: the world's first LASIK surgeon/international super-spy.

2012 Fresno State Basketball Teaser

Road woes have been the topic du jour for BasketBuffs this week, especially in light of last weekend's disastrous trip to Lawrence.  Of course, road struggles have long been a concern for almost all CU athletic programs, and the men's basketball team has been no different.

Even in the Coach Boyle era, CU has struggled away from the friendly confines of the Coors Events Center.  The non-conference road win list from the past two seasons looks like this: Cal St Bakersfield, and Air Force.  That's it, one per year.  Even then, that win over Air Force looked more like outright robbery than an actual victory, and the win over CSU-B was far from easy.  While conference play has been kinder - with wins over K-State, Texas Tech, USC, ASU, and Utah populating the record book - the point remains: the Buffs just aren't good in road games.

Which brings me to this evening.  On paper, a trip to play the Fresno St Bulldogs shouldn't be much of a problem for the Champions of Charleston.  However, with the Buffs' recent and extended road history, all bets are off.

Tip-off from the Save Mart Center (*sigh* that's an awful name) in Fresno, CA is set for 8pm MT, with radio coverage on AM760.  Unfortunately, there's no TV coverage, and your only remaining video option requires buying a $10 subscription to the FSU website.  (No, I haven't decided if it's worth it, yet.)

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Hard-core followers of the Buffs from back in the Big XII days should recognize head coach of the Bulldogs: longtime Texas assistant Rodney Terry.  Known primarily at UT for his recruiting prowess (he helped bring stars like Kevin Durant, LaMarcus Aldridge, D.J. Augustin, T.J. Ford, and Tristan Thompson to the Lone Star capital), he's tasked with the monumental challenge of bringing an underwhelming FSU program into the Mountain West, one of the country's best basketball conferences.

Terry brought Big XII cred to Fresno.

His first season in the Valley didn't go so well, with the Bulldogs struggling in their final season as a member of the WAC.  They went 3-11 in conference play, barely avoiding last place thanks to a truly horrific San Jose St squad. 

In response, Coach Terry ramped up recruiting efforts, landing a whale of a prospect in the form of top-50 player Robert Upshaw.  The 7-0, 250lb behemoth has yet to make a huge impact on the court, but his presence on the Bulldog roster is an eye-opener from multiple perspectives.

While Upshaw gets used to the collegiate game, the Bulldogs rely on a trio of 6-2 juniors to run the team:
 Kevin Olekaibe, Tyler Johnson, and Allen Huddelston. Olekaibe and Johnson combined for 37 points last year against the Buffs, helping the Bulldogs recover from a 15-point halftime deficit to make a close game out of what could have been a laugher.  Huddelston, a first-year transfer from Pacific, has been the Bulldog's leading scorer from the point this season, contributing 12 points per game.

Olekaibe gave CU fits last season. From: the BDC

All three would probably prefer to play off the ball, but size and simple roster math dictate one has to take the point.   That task has fallen to Huddelston, but that unnatural switch to running the offense has hurt the Bulldogs.  As a result, they only hand out 8.8 assists per game, good for 339th nationally.  That poor supply has especially stunted the once high-scoring Olekaibe.  After averaging nearly 18 points per game in '11-'12, he's only scored in double-figures twice this season.

The dysfunction in the backcourt was particularly evident in last month's 39-30 win over UC Riverside.  Using 56 possessions, that translates to a shockingly awful .66 ppp.  My head hurts just thinking about that.  The lesson, as always, is that point guard play is important.

Outside of the three guards, the Bulldog starting five is in near-permanent flux.  One player who should see extended minutes, while not necessarily a starter, is 6-8 sophomore forward Kevin Foster.  When on the court, the Florida native sees a ton of the ball, getting used on close to 27% of possessions.  He's a strong rebounder, with better percentages than 'Dre does this season (27.7% of defensive opportunities/13.5% of offensive), but his offensive touches are a drag on the team (84.1 ORtg).  He makes less than 30% of his two-point shots, which is downright criminal coming from a forward.

Foster's best attributes are not found on the offensive end.

Overall, Fresno St comes off as a pretty lousy shooting team (eFG under 44%), which relies on strong perimeter defense to keep themselves in games.  They've been holding opponents to under 27% shooting from beyond the arc, with a scant 18.4% of opponents points coming from outside makes (the national average is around 27%)  The Buffs will have to get interior penetration, and get foul calls to win this game.

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It was pointed out to me by friend of the blog Matthew Robbins that I've been quick to pick against CU this season.  I'll show you Bups; I am nothing if not rebellious, so, K-BOOSH, pickin' the Buffs!

CU should matchup well with the guard-heavy Bulldog rotation.  If the Buffs can get anywhere near the trips to the free throw line they received last year (32, making 27), they should be just fine.  Additionally, I expect Josh Scott and Andre Roberson will have a nice game against the FSU front-court.

So, I'll go out on a limb, and take the Buffs to get their annual non-conference road win this evening.  What's more, I'll say our hoops heroes hold the Bulldogs to fewer points than their football-playing compatriots managed to do this past September.

CU 67 - FSU 62

GO BUFFS!  PROVE ME RIGHT, AND COLLAR THE BULLDOGS!