Arizona Preview #2: Time to put up or shut up

It's February.  Football's done, and pitchers and catchers haven't even reported yet.  It's time for college basketball to hit the national spotlight.  Right on cue, tonight's game against Arizona is set for national TV.  Full-on ESPN no less; the BasketBuffs have arrived at a much larger stage than I'm used to.

It's not like it's an accident that the Buffs are finding themselves in the featured primetime game on the World-wide Leader.  As the #2 team in a "power" conference, this level of coverage is to be expected.  If anything, it's a gift.  The Buffs have a chance to make a statement on national television - this is a new breed of Colorado basketball, everyone come look at how awesome this is.

If CU has any thoughts of grabbing an at-large big for the Dance, this is a must win game.  What's more, a win, and the Buffs are not only in serious contention for a league title, but one of the favorites to capture it.   It's a tough trip, to be sure, walking into the home of a perennial league power, but this is the kind of game that serious basketball teams find a way to win.  Plus, they're a rival now, or something.

Tip off from the McKale center is set for 7pm.  If you can't find ESPN on your television package, you should seek medical attention immediately, because, I promise you, it's there.  Mark Johnson can be heard on 760 if the ESPN crew gets too annoying.

My preview of the first game can be found here.

Click below for my preview of the rematch...


When last we met - 


Finally, it's time for the season's first rematch.  The beauty of this point in the year is that there are no surprises.  Each team has seen every one of their remaining opponents within the last month, so games will be well scouted and intense.

In this case, it was only two and a half weeks ago that Arizona, and a bunch of their fans, cruised into Boulder.  It was supposed to be a close contest, with the two teams being very similar statistically, and the resulting game would not disappoint.  Back on Saturday, January 21st, the Buffs scratched and clawed their way to a 64-63 win.

It was a big win for Coach Boyle and crew.  From: the BDC

A defensive stop sealed it, as Wildcat Kevin Parrom air-mailed the potentially game winning shot with time expiring.  Left without a timeout, as 'Zona coach Sean Miller had been spending them like found money, the 'Cats struggled with their final possession, and the Buffs escaped with the win.

In the game, the Buffs were lead by Carlon Brown, who hit a few huge shots down the stretch, including the eventual game-winning three with just over one minute to play.  His 19/6 performance was what you expect from a senior scorer.  On the flip side, Andre Roberson struggled mightily on offense, scoring no points.  While he did contribute seven boards and four blocks, his silence on offense was deafening.

Carlon hit some big shots down the stretch, but has struggled a bit since.  He needs to get back into 'Zona form tonight.  From: the BDC

The biggest story, however, was the tenacious Buffs defense.  The Wildcats were held to 35% shooting on the night, and only 15% from behind the arc.  Arizona relies heavily on the outside shot, so containing them to 3-20 shooting from behind the arc was key.


What's changed? - 

While CU was holding serve at the CEC, the Wildcats were making a huge statement in San Francisco.  Their sweep last weekend in NorCal vaulted them back into the Pac-12 title race.  Particularly, their upset of Cal a week ago was an eye-opener, and stands as the biggest road win in the conference.  Not without a whiff of controversy, the win is a nice thing for the 'Cats to have on their resume.  I can't wait for the rematch of that one in the conference tourney.

It got a little testy late, but I'd like to see a rematch of that one.

Arizona has also been suffering through some injury woes.  Key reserves Kevin Parrom and Jordan Mayes will both miss tonight's game, leaving the 'Cats with a perilously thin bench.  If you check out their Kenpom profile (subscription required), after the five starters, there's a precipitous drop in production without the likes of Parrom and Mayes, with no other player over 15% usage.

Picking up the minutes dropped by the injured players is reserve forward Angelo Chol.  The 6-9 freshman out of San Diego was a highly regarded piece of 'Zona's lauded '11 recruiting class.  He has a sterling block rate, and will change the Buffs offensive dynamic in the paint, but has yet to shine with the ball in his hands.

Chol will be a big obstacle inside.

For the Buffs, the biggest thing of note is the recent play of freshman Askia Booker.  "The Scrat" was the primary catalyst of last weekend's sweep of the Oregon schools.  In the two games he combined for 32/11 while shooting 14-15 from the line.  Overall, he's scored in double-figures in four of the past five games.  He's a critical part of the offense now, and a contender for the league's 6th man of the year (the Pac-12 has that, right?).


Prediction -

I certainly know one thing, Andre will score tonight. His goose-egg last time was an anomaly.  I'm not saying he's going to drop 20, or anything silly like that, but he'll get on the board, lessening the pressure on the rest of the Buffs O.  He seems to like his jumper better on the road, so look for that surprising step-back of his.

Conversely, Arizona will shoot much better from range.  Holding the 'Cats to 3-20 shooting from behind the arc last time was equally as anomalous, and I expect them to be much closer to their season average of 38%, if not higher.  The Buffs perimeter defense has been better of late, but sometimes good offense will beat good defense, especially when it's at home.  Look for Wildcat marksman Josh Fogg to hit some from outside; he's been on fire lately, shooting over 60% from deep since the Buffs game.

The two teams are still eerily similar, which leads me to lead that homecourt is the deciding factor.  Kenpom has this as the least possible win of the last seven (22%).  While I think the game will be closer than that would indicate, the Buffs will lose in the desert, with Arizona pulling away late. 

UofA 72 - CU 66

GO BUFFS!  PROVE ME WRONG AND BEAT THE WILDCATS!