Stanford Preview #2

For the first time this season, the Buffs enter a rematch looking for revenge.  The Cardinal blitzed the Buffs last month, looking near perfect in the process.  The loss drove Coach Boyle to call his team "mediocre," and sent Buff Nation into a tizzy of self flagellation.

What a difference a month makes.  Despite the sweep in NorCal, the Buffs have played well enough to find themselves alone in 3rd place headed into the final two weeks of conference play.  This team has proven well above "mediocre," and has put the memory of that second half disaster in Palo Alto to rest.

With an unthinkable conference title still a possibility, the Buffs now host those same Stanford Cardinal to kick of the final stretch of the regular season.  Into what will surely be a mad house, the Buffs step with revenge on their minds.

The biggest week of the season tips off at 8:30 from the stuffed CEC.  If you couldn't find a ticket for the game, you can still watch the action on ROOT Sports.  Those who prefer Mark Johnson, and the radio call, can find him on 760 AM.

 My preview for the first game can be found here.

Click below for my preview of the rematch...


When last we met - 

Way back on January 14th, Stanford rode a 10-minute, 32-5 run in the second half to turn a close contest into a laugher.  The result; a 84-64 loss, and a stunned basketball team.

The Cardinal were all smiles last month.

Andre Roberson, of course, lead the way for the Buffs, scoring 15 points and exhibiting a nice jumper along the way.  Unfortunately, with Stanford hitting almost every shot they took (53% for the game), 'Dre's rebounding opportunities were scarce, and he was held to a paltry four boards.

The biggest issue for the Buffs was that, when smacked in the mouth in the second half, they weren't able to get up.  The Cardinal out-hustled them on both sides of the court, and crushed them on the boards.  When the 32-5 avalanche came, CU had answer for it.

The Buffs had no answers when the shit hit the fan.

Stanford was lead by freshman sensation Chasson Randle; his 18/5 performance, with 4-8 shooting from 3, set the pace.  Reserve guard John Huestis also stuck it to the Buffs with the jumper, shooting 5-9 from the floor and contributing 13 points.  Forward Josh Owens also chipped in 10/7 for the Cardinal.

Those 84 points scored by Stanford are notable for a few reasons.  Most importantly, they were the most scored by a CU opponent since Kansas dropped 90 on the Buffs in the Big XII semi-finals last March.  Additionally, if you take away that outburst, CU has averaged allowing a sterling 54 points per Pac-12 contest this season.  Throw in 60% second half shooting from the Cardinal, and I'm more inclined to take that result as an outlier than an actual indication of how comparatively better this Stanford team is.

Without that 32-5 run, it's a whole different ballgame.  I'm not saying the Buffs would've won, I'm just saying that the 20-point margin was aberrant.


What's changed? - 

The biggest difference from six weeks ago is that the Cardinal have run into a brick wall. After that win over CU, which set Stanford up for a run at the top of the Pac-12 with a 5-1 record, the Cardinal stumbled to a 1-5 mark over their next six contests, even dropping a 12-point decision at Washington St.

After expending a lot of energy beating the Buffs, Stanford hasn't found much success on the court.

The problem is, they started playing decent teams on the road.  That 1-5 stretch featured four road losses, all by double-digits.  In fact, their road swing through the conference only shows wins against lowly USC and Oregon St (that four OT thriller).

My primary reasoning to say that the 20-point loss last month has a fluke-ish taint to it is the way the Cardinal followed up on that victory through the meat of their Pac-12 schedule.  Stanford isn't nearly as good as that 20-point victory over CU would lead you to believe.


Prediction -  

The 32-5 run in the first game was an aberration, and it would be a complete failure by both the players and coaches to let it happen a second time.  I've come to expect more from Coach Boyle and Co.

The Cardinal played their version of a perfect game last time.  Since then, the wheels have fallen off, meaning that, while that level of success is replicable, I feel it's beyond their reach at the moment.  Throw in the road environment, and I'm sensing a solid win for the Buffs this evening.

If anything, the Pac-12 has learned how to handle Stanford away from Maples... and this game is at altitude, where I hear opponents have a hard time winning.  Uh oh.

Stolen from: dply @ Allbuffs

Welcome to altitude, Stanford.  Ever heard of a tree line?

CU 75 - Stanford 68


GO BUFFS!  CHOP DOWN THAT TREE!