Oregon Basketball Preview #1: Ridin' the Storm Out

I find this song appropriate for the weekend:

Is there confirmation that the Ducks were even able to make it to Boulder?  With the Valley blanketed by levels of snow usually seen up in the mountains, it's time to warm up the CEC to host yet another school from Oregon.

Tomorrow's game is a battle for second place.  While Washington has taken hold of a 1-game advantage, Cal has fallen into a second-place tie with both CU and Oregon.  With Cal playing host to ASU this weekend, the winner of  this game will probably stay in a tie with the Golden Bears.

It's a pretty good match-up, some even calling it the conference's game of the week, deserving of plenty of attention and a nice crowd.

Tip-off is scheduled for 7pm Saturday evening.  (Finally, a weekend game played at a reasonable hour.)  The storm should be gone by then (crossing fingers), so the roads into Boulder should have all Saturday afternoon to clear up.  Just take it for granted, and plan to head up to the CEC tomorrow night.  There's only three more opportunities to catch the Buffs at home, so there's no reason to stop supporting the team now.

If the snow has you blocked into your abode, you can catch the action on ROOT Sports.  If the radio call is more your style, Mark Johnson will be laying it down on 850 KOA, with the expanded coverage that has become the norm on the station.

Click below for the preview...





Opponents season so far - 


The Oregon program has been battered by transfer woes over the past few seasons.  The biggest blow to the Duck program came when super-freshman Jabari Brown decided to leave Eugene for Mizzou.  Yet, despite the player attrition, the Ducks have continued to play successful, balanced basketball.


With incoming transfer Devoe Joseph finally eligible after waiting through the fall semester, the Ducks are playing well.  A close loss at home to in-state rival Oregon St is all that separates them from the league lead.

A tough loss to OSU is the only thing keeping Oregon off the top spot in the Pac-12

They're very similar to the Buffs statistically, holding nearly identical points per game (70.1 : 69.8) and points per possession (1.05 : 1.04) stats.  CU is a better rebounding team, but that's about the only area of separation.

On offense, much like the Buffs, the Ducks do a good job of using athleticism to get to the line, and have a nice eFG% to boast of (51.2).  They have a deep bench, as they have nine players who have seen significant minutes on the year (over 35% of available minutes, the Buffs only have six).  That's where the addition of the mid-season qualifier helps, because their bench players were forced to play significant minutes early on.

On defense, they're solid, if not average.  They don't cause many turnovers, which is weird since they like to press a bit.  I'm interested to see how that press holds up over 40 minutes at altitude.  When not pressing, the Ducks often drop into a 2-3 zone.  While a worry a month ago, the Buffs have seemed more than capable of breaking down zones in recent weeks.

Solid on D, the Ducks have proven comfortable on the road,  even sweeping the Arizona schools on a recent road trip.

If there's any team on the schedule that won't be scared stepping into the CEC, it's Oregon, who have won four times away from Eugene.  That's the most in the conference.




Coaching - 


Coach Dana Altman spent 16 years in Omaha, Nebraska, leading the Creighton Blue Jays to seven Tournament appearances (pretty good for a mid-major).  Success on the banks of the Missouri River, however, began to stagnate, and Creighton could only secure trips to lower-level tournaments his final three years with the Jays.

After Oregon swung and missed at luring Gonzaga's long time head man, Mark Few, to Eugene in 2010, the Ducks backed up the Nike-emblazoned Brinks truck to Dana Altman's office.  After spending two decades in the Midwest (he also coached at KSU), Altman followed the money to the West Coast to helm Oregon.  There he replaced long-time Oregon head coach Ernie Kent.

Altman brings experience and a steady hand to Eugene.

While Oregon was expected to struggle last season under the weight of losing five players from the 09-10 roster, Altman lead them to a respectable 21-18 (7-11) record, and a CBI championship.  That CBI title, ironically, concluded with a best-of-three series with the Creighton Blue Jays.  This season, Altman has only continued to improve the Ducks.

He is a well respected, veteran leader.  Through 23 years as a head coach, and only four stops, Coach Altman has proven capable of building a program.  I'm interested to see how high he can get the Ducks in future years.




Star Players - 

Since regaining his eligibility after sitting out the first few games due to transfer restrictions, Devoe Joseph has proven to be the most explosive offensive threat for the Ducks.  The 6-4 senior guard comes to Oregon after bailing on Minnesota.  Dropping near 16 per night, he's coming in off of back-to-back 20-point performances against Utah and OSU, and has been in double-figures in all but one game this season.  A great outside shooter (45%) and a pretty good ball-handler (near 3 assists per game) the Buffs will need to keep an eye on him.

Joseph is the primary Duck threat.

Fellow transfer Olu Ashaolu didn't have to sit out a season, getting the senior graduate transfer exemption from the NCAA.  The 6-7 forward hasn't shown the rebounding promise he exhibited at Louisiana Tech, only grabbing five per game (he averaged over nine at LaTech).

He may not get the rebounds he used to, but Ashaolu can still throw down.

6-1 senior guard Garrett Sim is a very efficient offensive threat.  Creeping close to the magical triple slash of 50/40/90, his efficiency places him the the top-100 in the nation.  His eFG is up near 64%!  He's deadly from outside (46% from behind the arc), and will combine with Joseph to test the Buffs perimeter D.

Sim is a great shooter, and can make himself a pest on both sides of the court.

Junior E.J. Singler, the younger brother of Kyle, is a versatile offensive threat.  The 6-6 swing forward has seen his 3-point shooting drop a bit this season.  Still, he provides 13/5 each night.

The hair... yep, that's a Singler.

Prediction - 


This Duck team is no joke.  Kenpom has them all the way down in the low 100's, but I think they're much better than their adjusted stats would have you believe.  They're comfortable winning on the road, and all of their losses are to teams in the top-75.

I'm expecting a close game Saturday afternoon; the two teams are quite similar in the advanced stats, and both are well coached.  If the Buffs win, it'll be late.

Assuming the wake of the blizzard doesn't keep Buff Nation away, I'll take the Buffs to win.  #YouCan'tWinAtAltitude

CU 74 - UO 70


GO BUFFS!  BEAT THE DUCKS!