Late on a Tuesday, I'm straight to the action today.
In the bag, I'm talking the bored shrug against Lipscomb, the 70% good of the football program, and women's action against little sister.
Click below for the bag...
Showing posts with label 70% good. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 70% good. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 2, 2014
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
What Harris-Tunk's Injury Means
My full basketball preview won't be up until next week-ish (waiting til the last minute is my forte), but there was plenty of talk today about the impact of the Harris-Tunks ACL tear, and what it could mean to the Buffs postseason chances. To put it lightly, HT being out is a body blow to the Buffs Tourney hopes. No, as Coach Boyle pointed out to Thorburn yesterday, HT wasn't going to grab headlines with his numbers, but we needed his size to not match-up against larger opponents and grab some big rebounds to key the offense, but eat some fouls and possessions as well.
His replacements are none too encouraging. We know what we're going to get from Dufault, and Eckloff has shown some flashes of being able to play at this level, but both were valued under Coach Bz more for their shooting and ability to stretch the opponent than their defense or rebounding (which are emphasized under Coach Boyle). Beyond them, our low post options get crazy thin with the likes of Freshman 7-footer Ben Mills (who I can all but guarantee won't be ready for Big XII play) and a cavalcade of undersized swing-forwards/guards playing out of position. The team will often be forced to play very small this year, and, unlike Mid-Major teams like Drake who can afford to throw 5 guards out there and outscore opponents in a weak league, it's going to hurt for the Buffs to try and do so.
(Players like Trey Eckloff will have to pick up the slack in a big way.)
This team is as comfortable playing small as you can be, but it's a simple fact that you need size of some form to get through a Big XII season. Some times you just need a warm body to eat up minutes. Think of it this way: had CU even had a former big-man scrub like Julius Ashby last season, it probably would've been worth 2 or 3 extra wins on the season; not because he was necessarily any good, but just by the fact that he could eat some possessions with his size. Even when you are guard oriented, you need someone to eat up the block on each end of the court; these guys give you extra chances on offense and slow down opponents on defense.
It's the little things with HT that we're going to miss this year. His help defense, size threat, and (especially) his 5 low-post fouls. We all know of Dufault's penchant for early and compromising cheap fouls in the paint, which will put a major strain on the team this year, but the problems go beyond that; Without HT, you can probably expect to see an extra foul per night for Relphorde and even Burks. Because of their athleticism, they'll have to collapse to the rim on certain defensive possessions that they wouldn't normally have to, involving them in plays that lead to defensive fouls. This could cost us a game or two because a major cog of the offense is on the bench for crucial possessions.
As a result, I'm going to revise my season prediction. Expect a random loss in non-conference play and 12 non con wins (we play a crazy easy non-con schedule). I think .500 in the Big XII is now the benchmark (7-1 at home, 1-7 on the road, a la 2003) and 20 total wins. With our extra weak non-conference schedule, that will place us firmly on the NCAA bubble.
--
Speaking of warm-bodies filling up space in the lane, there is some-what of a dark horse replacement option; Casey Crawford is wandering around with a full year of eligibility left to use. He left the team last year for personal reasons, and still has one more to play. Realistically he's probably out of shape and wouldn't fit into the offense (or really Boyle's style of play at all), but at least he's tall-ish.... This will never happen in a million years (I'm not sure we have a schollie to give up anyway), but all I'm saying is that there is a Buff out there who is 6-8 with Big XII experience and can play one more year.
(Why'd you have to go Casey, we could sure use you right now...)
I'm just grasping at straws right now...
His replacements are none too encouraging. We know what we're going to get from Dufault, and Eckloff has shown some flashes of being able to play at this level, but both were valued under Coach Bz more for their shooting and ability to stretch the opponent than their defense or rebounding (which are emphasized under Coach Boyle). Beyond them, our low post options get crazy thin with the likes of Freshman 7-footer Ben Mills (who I can all but guarantee won't be ready for Big XII play) and a cavalcade of undersized swing-forwards/guards playing out of position. The team will often be forced to play very small this year, and, unlike Mid-Major teams like Drake who can afford to throw 5 guards out there and outscore opponents in a weak league, it's going to hurt for the Buffs to try and do so.
(Players like Trey Eckloff will have to pick up the slack in a big way.)
This team is as comfortable playing small as you can be, but it's a simple fact that you need size of some form to get through a Big XII season. Some times you just need a warm body to eat up minutes. Think of it this way: had CU even had a former big-man scrub like Julius Ashby last season, it probably would've been worth 2 or 3 extra wins on the season; not because he was necessarily any good, but just by the fact that he could eat some possessions with his size. Even when you are guard oriented, you need someone to eat up the block on each end of the court; these guys give you extra chances on offense and slow down opponents on defense.
It's the little things with HT that we're going to miss this year. His help defense, size threat, and (especially) his 5 low-post fouls. We all know of Dufault's penchant for early and compromising cheap fouls in the paint, which will put a major strain on the team this year, but the problems go beyond that; Without HT, you can probably expect to see an extra foul per night for Relphorde and even Burks. Because of their athleticism, they'll have to collapse to the rim on certain defensive possessions that they wouldn't normally have to, involving them in plays that lead to defensive fouls. This could cost us a game or two because a major cog of the offense is on the bench for crucial possessions.
As a result, I'm going to revise my season prediction. Expect a random loss in non-conference play and 12 non con wins (we play a crazy easy non-con schedule). I think .500 in the Big XII is now the benchmark (7-1 at home, 1-7 on the road, a la 2003) and 20 total wins. With our extra weak non-conference schedule, that will place us firmly on the NCAA bubble.
--
Speaking of warm-bodies filling up space in the lane, there is some-what of a dark horse replacement option; Casey Crawford is wandering around with a full year of eligibility left to use. He left the team last year for personal reasons, and still has one more to play. Realistically he's probably out of shape and wouldn't fit into the offense (or really Boyle's style of play at all), but at least he's tall-ish.... This will never happen in a million years (I'm not sure we have a schollie to give up anyway), but all I'm saying is that there is a Buff out there who is 6-8 with Big XII experience and can play one more year.
(Why'd you have to go Casey, we could sure use you right now...)
I'm just grasping at straws right now...
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
A real victory is not a moral victory.
Yesterday I rather flippantly referred to this week as a "lost week" for the CU Men's Basketball team. Considering that Coach Bz rather tersely jumped on a reporter's comments that the team doesn't have "a lot to play for," I feel that I should clarify my comment.
(Both Coach McClain and Coach Bz find you lack of perspective disturbing)
Writers love the story of the lost cause; the team sailing into the wind, and eeking out competitive fire from situations where hope is lost. It gives them something to write about. To me it makes sense that a reporter would view the Buffs from afar through the lens of "nothing to play for." But that view is as ignorant as the question.
In response to the reporter, Bz had this to say “I resent that statement that we don't have a lot of play for. We're very blessed to play college basketball and to do the things that we are allowed to do. ... We still have a winning season within our grasp.” That response says everything about the place the Buffs envision themselves as they reach the final stretch of the season. They are living the plan. The goal, as stated at the beginning of the season, is to be .500 and reach the postseason, and they are within reasonable reach of that goal. Any implication that this season has been a disappointment because their postseason opportunities don't include the "big dance" is short-sighted. The Buffs still have plenty to play for simply because their stated goal is within reach. Any business model tempers it's expectations with reality, and the reality is championship level programs are not built over night.
I have always steadfastly believed that the concept of a "moral victory" is a load of soccer-mom hog-wash. But, make no mistakes, CU making the post-season, any post-season, is not a moral victory. It is a serious right-of-passage on the road to building a successful program.
To meet the goal, CU needs to win 3 of its remaining 4 games. From a realistic perspective, it would be very difficult for the Buffs to go into Columbia, MO and take a win tomorrow night from a tough Missouri team (I expect difficulties playing with Missouri as long as Coach Bz is in town, much the same way that we will cause major difficulties for OU as long as Coach Bz is in town). That perspective on the upcoming game coupled with the concept of a currently-sub .500 team going on the road to face the #1 team in the land lead me to have low expectations for the week. This is why I referred to this week as "lost." If CU is going to win 3 more games, it probably won't be coming against this weeks slate of competition.
The following weeks, however, offer greater opportunities. The Buffs will have 2 home games against weaker opponents (ISU and Texas Tech) and a road game against a very weak Nebraska team. It is very conceivable that those three games will be three wins, giving the Buffs their .500 season record and a very good shot at making some post-season play. In addition, winning 3 of the next four would seriously improve our conference standing, possibly getting CU as high as the #8 seed in the upcoming Big XII tournament. That #8 seed would allow the Buffs to play a team like Tech or OU (teams they match up very well against) giving CU a pretty darn good shot at a win in Kansas City.
(Yes Coach Bz, it is a tall order, but I have faith)
All of these milestones (getting to .500, the post season, and winning a game in KC) lead to some serious team pride and momentum heading into next year. The program has some seriously high hopes for next year, and, if they can take the steps that Coach Bz hopes that they will take over the next few weeks, they will be in a good position to live up to those hopes. Couple that with groundbreaking on the new practice facility, the arrival of Shannon Sharpe, and another year of basically the same team and CU is definitely moving in the right direction. The Buffs aren't just playing out season, they have some legitimate things to play for, and the normally patient Jeff Bzdelik is right for calling out anyone who can't see that.
(Both Coach McClain and Coach Bz find you lack of perspective disturbing)
Writers love the story of the lost cause; the team sailing into the wind, and eeking out competitive fire from situations where hope is lost. It gives them something to write about. To me it makes sense that a reporter would view the Buffs from afar through the lens of "nothing to play for." But that view is as ignorant as the question.
In response to the reporter, Bz had this to say “I resent that statement that we don't have a lot of play for. We're very blessed to play college basketball and to do the things that we are allowed to do. ... We still have a winning season within our grasp.” That response says everything about the place the Buffs envision themselves as they reach the final stretch of the season. They are living the plan. The goal, as stated at the beginning of the season, is to be .500 and reach the postseason, and they are within reasonable reach of that goal. Any implication that this season has been a disappointment because their postseason opportunities don't include the "big dance" is short-sighted. The Buffs still have plenty to play for simply because their stated goal is within reach. Any business model tempers it's expectations with reality, and the reality is championship level programs are not built over night.
I have always steadfastly believed that the concept of a "moral victory" is a load of soccer-mom hog-wash. But, make no mistakes, CU making the post-season, any post-season, is not a moral victory. It is a serious right-of-passage on the road to building a successful program.
To meet the goal, CU needs to win 3 of its remaining 4 games. From a realistic perspective, it would be very difficult for the Buffs to go into Columbia, MO and take a win tomorrow night from a tough Missouri team (I expect difficulties playing with Missouri as long as Coach Bz is in town, much the same way that we will cause major difficulties for OU as long as Coach Bz is in town). That perspective on the upcoming game coupled with the concept of a currently-sub .500 team going on the road to face the #1 team in the land lead me to have low expectations for the week. This is why I referred to this week as "lost." If CU is going to win 3 more games, it probably won't be coming against this weeks slate of competition.
The following weeks, however, offer greater opportunities. The Buffs will have 2 home games against weaker opponents (ISU and Texas Tech) and a road game against a very weak Nebraska team. It is very conceivable that those three games will be three wins, giving the Buffs their .500 season record and a very good shot at making some post-season play. In addition, winning 3 of the next four would seriously improve our conference standing, possibly getting CU as high as the #8 seed in the upcoming Big XII tournament. That #8 seed would allow the Buffs to play a team like Tech or OU (teams they match up very well against) giving CU a pretty darn good shot at a win in Kansas City.
(Yes Coach Bz, it is a tall order, but I have faith)
All of these milestones (getting to .500, the post season, and winning a game in KC) lead to some serious team pride and momentum heading into next year. The program has some seriously high hopes for next year, and, if they can take the steps that Coach Bz hopes that they will take over the next few weeks, they will be in a good position to live up to those hopes. Couple that with groundbreaking on the new practice facility, the arrival of Shannon Sharpe, and another year of basically the same team and CU is definitely moving in the right direction. The Buffs aren't just playing out season, they have some legitimate things to play for, and the normally patient Jeff Bzdelik is right for calling out anyone who can't see that.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
60-59
60-59.... That score has haunted me since January of 2003. It started out as a good thing... a win over nationally ranked Kansas that eventually lead to an NCAA tournament appearance (albeit a brief one). But, slowly over the past seven years, that score, or more precisely that game, has haunted my dreams.
It was almost deja vu all over again last night. Kansas was in the building, exhausted from the weight of a high (in this case #1) ranking on their shoulders, in a year that has seen a number of top teams stumble (including Kansas themselves earlier in the year). Through grit, determination, and some impressive coaching, the Buffs found themselves with a 60-59 lead with less than a minute left.
(For reference, that's what grit looks like. From: The Daily Camera)
60-59... in the seven years since Stephane Pelle drained his jumper, I never thought I'd see that score in a CU-KU game again... I had imagined that that game was some unicorn of an event that would elude me forever. But there it was again last night... staring me in the face. I tried to convince myself that in all reality that score couldn't last the 55 seconds remaining in the game, someone would have to score, but just the memory gave me the shakes.
It wasn't to last, Sherron Collins hit the second of his two free throws with 38 seconds on the clock to wipe away the possibility of 60-59 being the final. Cory Higgins would miss a pitiful look at a long 3 with 2 seconds left, and the Buffs would go on to fall in overtime.
I don't mean to get lost in the shuffle of my longing for moments past, it just tends to happen that way. More importantly, that's not what I take away from last nights game.
What I do take away from last night is the tremendous effort put forth by the Buffs. If you would've given me 500-1 odds on a $50 bet that the buffs would out-rebound the #1 Jayhawks through 40 minutes of play, I still wouldn't have taken it, yet Marcus Relphorde and a revolving door of big men, crashed the boards with tenacity.
But, there were even more bright spots. Casey Crawford and Austin Dufalt(!) made All-American KU center Cole Aldrich's time in Boulder a living hell. Levi Knutson actually hit multiple open shots in a game(!). And, outside of the final 4 minutes and overtime, Nate Tomlinson showed why he's one of the best point guards in the Big XII. It was a performance that I hadn't believed was possible.
But in the end, a loss is, as "they" say, a loss. Just another missed opportunity.
It does comfort a little to remember that Al Burks (for the record, I call him Al), and his near 17 points a game, was out. Perhaps the re-match 16 days from now in Lawrence will have a better outcome in store, or possibly next year will finally show as the year those single-digit losses become wins. Either way, being 70% good and constantly coming close to, but not actually, breaking through is starting the get old.
It was almost deja vu all over again last night. Kansas was in the building, exhausted from the weight of a high (in this case #1) ranking on their shoulders, in a year that has seen a number of top teams stumble (including Kansas themselves earlier in the year). Through grit, determination, and some impressive coaching, the Buffs found themselves with a 60-59 lead with less than a minute left.
(For reference, that's what grit looks like. From: The Daily Camera)
60-59... in the seven years since Stephane Pelle drained his jumper, I never thought I'd see that score in a CU-KU game again... I had imagined that that game was some unicorn of an event that would elude me forever. But there it was again last night... staring me in the face. I tried to convince myself that in all reality that score couldn't last the 55 seconds remaining in the game, someone would have to score, but just the memory gave me the shakes.
It wasn't to last, Sherron Collins hit the second of his two free throws with 38 seconds on the clock to wipe away the possibility of 60-59 being the final. Cory Higgins would miss a pitiful look at a long 3 with 2 seconds left, and the Buffs would go on to fall in overtime.
I don't mean to get lost in the shuffle of my longing for moments past, it just tends to happen that way. More importantly, that's not what I take away from last nights game.
What I do take away from last night is the tremendous effort put forth by the Buffs. If you would've given me 500-1 odds on a $50 bet that the buffs would out-rebound the #1 Jayhawks through 40 minutes of play, I still wouldn't have taken it, yet Marcus Relphorde and a revolving door of big men, crashed the boards with tenacity.
But, there were even more bright spots. Casey Crawford and Austin Dufalt(!) made All-American KU center Cole Aldrich's time in Boulder a living hell. Levi Knutson actually hit multiple open shots in a game(!). And, outside of the final 4 minutes and overtime, Nate Tomlinson showed why he's one of the best point guards in the Big XII. It was a performance that I hadn't believed was possible.
But in the end, a loss is, as "they" say, a loss. Just another missed opportunity.
It does comfort a little to remember that Al Burks (for the record, I call him Al), and his near 17 points a game, was out. Perhaps the re-match 16 days from now in Lawrence will have a better outcome in store, or possibly next year will finally show as the year those single-digit losses become wins. Either way, being 70% good and constantly coming close to, but not actually, breaking through is starting the get old.
I rumble on...
I reserved this blog address about 2 years ago... since then nothing.
Originally, I promised myself that I would dive right in to the glamorous life of an amateur blogger, but life, as it often does, got in the way.
Now, however, the days of this space on the lost edges of the interwebs lying fallow are at an end! (FYI, this is probably not a good thing)
I intend to use this space to ruminate on the goings on as I see it. Mostly, I plan on focusing on my favorite topics of sports, beer and video games. I apologize in advance.
Originally, I promised myself that I would dive right in to the glamorous life of an amateur blogger, but life, as it often does, got in the way.
Now, however, the days of this space on the lost edges of the interwebs lying fallow are at an end! (FYI, this is probably not a good thing)
I intend to use this space to ruminate on the goings on as I see it. Mostly, I plan on focusing on my favorite topics of sports, beer and video games. I apologize in advance.
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