Kansas Preview

Now that everyone is resigned to their respective fates, I've been thinking recent Buff history; specifically '06. It's astonishing to look back on the past 5 seasons of Buff football and see the course of events. CU went out and got one of the premier up-and-coming coaching names in an attempt to reshape the program after the "scandal." Immediately, and most shockingly, the program was slapped in the face. With anticipation of things to come, and the possibility of 50+ points being thrown up against lowly Montana St., Buff fans poured in to see CU play its first D-1AA opponents in years. Instead of a rout of the Bobcats from Bozeman, the fans witnessed one of the most demoralizing performances in CU history. Unable to even crack 225 yards of offense, the post-Barnett era got off to the most embarrassing of starts as CU lost at home to a D-1AA team that would lose to a D-2 team the following week.

(Remember these guys? They started it all....)

I bring that-day-which-must-not-be-spoken-of up because the situation is eerily similar to that of Kansas. After a hastily reached decision to fire the previous head coach, the university (Kansas) goes out and grabs the hot, up-and-coming name from a non-BCS school (Turner Gill from Buffalo). After much hype, the team goes out and loses, embarrassingly, to a D-1AA school (North Dakota St., go Bison!) at home. The team then proceeds to win 2 games over the course of the season (fingers crossed on that one). Judging by the resulting 5 years of the Dan Hawkins coaching era, maybe Kansas should just cut it's losses after this year and hire Dave Logan.

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Sasnak

(Baby Mangino can't save you anymore, KU)

Oh, Kansas. You were good for exactly 2 months. I don't know how, or why, they were able to cobble together that talented '07 team, but they certainly have reverted to form recently. You would think that leading a traditionally abysmal football program to a one-loss Orange Bowl season would be enough to buy some leeway, yet KU fired the fat man for being overly aggressive. He yelled at kids during a practice... oooOOOOoooo.

(I'll miss you, fat man!)

Whatever. It's the start of basketball season; does anyone at KU really care?

It is what it is, and it's currently a disaster. After the aforementioned loss to NDSU, the Jayhawks rebounded to randomly beat Georgia Tech (who I'm sure prepared very hard), but have since struggled to even play competitively against a real opponent. The straits are so dire that Coach Gill even praised his team just for leading at half last week.

It's a simple equation, they give up too many points, and don't score enough. Red Zone efficiency is way down (only 68%) and they're getting less than 200 yards per game through the air. Only scoring 16.1 points a game isn't going to help anybody, and offensively, KU looks like they're straight out of the dark ages. While they do get over 320 yards per game from the offense, they don't really do any one thing particularly well, and are often stuck in neutral when they have the ball.

Offensively, the team is lead by... somebody. The team still hasn't announced a starting QB for this week's game. It could be Jr Quinn Mecham... or Fr Jordan Webb who's had most of the snaps this season.... or even So Kale Pick. Say what you will about Cody, at least we know who our starter will be Saturday afternoon. Whoever the QB is, I don't expect a lot of production from the position. When an offense is stuck in the mud, you can usually look at who's under center for the cause of the problem. The rest of the Jayhawks offense is a collection of could-be talent, but with no real go-to stars. WR Bradley McDougald (He's a Sophomore!) is struggling after a break-out freshman campaign. Other go-to targets for whoever the QB is will be Johnathon Wilson and converted DB Daymond Patterson. RB James Sims and the rest of the rushing attack are often just as ineffective as the passing attack. A lot of backs will see touches, and that's not necessarily a good thing...

(Webb, who's handled most of the snaps this year, may not be the QB come Saturday)

Defensively, the Jayhawks are a mess. In their 4 Big XII contests, they've given up an average of 47 points per game. They've given up over 450 yards of offense 3 times this season, and even allowed Baylor to crack them for 678 yards. This unit is porous, especially against the run where they allow 5.1 yards per rush. They only have 8 sacks on the year, so they don't really get after the quarterback, and they only have 2 picks on the year, which makes me think their coverage is soft. Sr Linebacker Drew Dudley, Jr LB Steven Johnson and Sophomore Safety Lubbock Smith lead the defense, such as it is.

Prediction Time
If a game isn't on television, does it really happen? As it is, these sort of match-ups often make for good games; two struggling teams facing off with nothing to lose, etc.

CU should win. Even Vegas agreed as the Buffs were installed at 9 point favorites earlier this week. The problem is that damn road game jinx. Hawk can't coach his way out of a brown paper bag when the game is played outside of Colorado; the team comes out flat, doesn't have the internal fire to kick-start the engines, one thing leads to another, and it's another Buffs loss.

I really want to pick CU to win this week. Even after all the jokes CU does have a shot at a Weedeater bowl, which is important to the kids on the field. CU needs this game for confidence and pride, unfortunately I don't think they'll get it done.


Yes, KU is awful this year, and yes they don't even have a QB, but even bad teams catch breaks once in a while, and this Buffalo program loves to give bad teams breaks. I expect an ugly game; turnovers, bad special teams, poor offensive efficiency, etc. I also expect CU to find a way to lose, as it has every time it's gone on the road the past 3 years. If we hadn't decided to abandon the run game, maybe I'd give us a chance, but the team is playing scared and lifeless, and I just can't overlook it.

But, don't worry CU fans, Hawk will still be employed come Monday morning, because of some nebulous "honor" concept. Sigh...

(At least he's happy...)

KU 19 - CU 12

GO BUFFS!

Missouri Preview

It's Missouri week.... again. We all know the story: Hawk has yet to beat Gary Pinkel's Missouri Tigers, losing all 4 contests by a combined score of 177-40. (!!!!!!!) The Buffs have been atrocious against Missouri; the players, coaches, media, and fans all know it. It's starting to become a "thing." Last year, down 33-3, I left Folsom Field early for the first time since I stepped foot on campus, such was the level of putridity that the Buffs displayed. Everyone involved with the program is fed up with the teams performances against the hated Tiger, yet I don't know if we can change the script this weekend.

Combined with our recent bad juju against Mizzou is the fact that yesterday was the 20th anniversary of the "Fifth-down" game. While I would contend that it should be called the "Mizzou was so terrible that they had to resort to destroying their own field to get an edge" game, it is what it is. You would think 20 years would be enough time to get over an officiating mistake, but the citizens of the Show-Me-State have a long history of never letting shit die. Some people were speculating that this 20th anniversary would be the last time the collective football world would have to hear about it, but I wouldn't count on it.

(He got in, end of story)

The Buffs enter the contest off the heels of their yearly emotional home-victory over a team that has more physical talent. Even when taken in the context of the opponents record, the Georgia win was very impressive. So, has CU really turned the corner, or was it just another isolated blip on an otherwise static EKG monitor?

I might just be ready to buy this teams exit from futility. CU out-played those SEC dawgs from the opening kick-off (which Hawk chose to receive, thank God). The Buffs controlled the line of scrimmage, running the ball 47 times for 235 yards. I'll tell you right now, I didn't expect us to put up 200+ yards rushing against a SEC team. CU has created a run-first identity that looks to be here for good.

(Rodney can be a hell of a weapon when used right. From: the BDC)

For a team that has been identity-less for 4 years, to finally have something that they can point to as a legitimate strength is encouraging. The Buffs didn't seem to care that they were playing a bigger/stronger opponent then they had played all season; they just wanted to pound the ground game until Georgia begged for mercy. In the two games since CU switched up the offensive line, the Buffs have gained a total of 487 rushing yards on 99 attempts. That is a dedication to the ground game that we haven't seen since 2002. And we're going to need that same dedication this week.

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T-I-Double guh-Errrr


Missouri is, once again, a strong team. While they have bought into the Big XII North tradition of playing a soft out of conference schedule (they haven't left the state of Missouri yet), and even hiccuped against Sand Diego St., they are a good football team hoping to compete for the north crown.

Before the season started they were forced to deal with team leader Derrick Washington, who had assaulted his former tutor. The Tigers kicked him off the team and went into scramble mode to replace his running production. So far, so good as their running back by committee has yielded 154 yards per game. RB's De`Vion Moore, Henry Josey and Kendial Lawrence have stepped up to put up some impressive numbers, and the constant rotation keeps their backs fresh and ready for big gains.

While the trio of young running backs has stepped up, passing is what the Tigers do best. QB Blaine Gabbert (who spurned Nebraska to go to MU) has a plethora of talented targets to throw to in WR's T.J. Moe, Michael Egnew and Jerrell Jackson. While they only get 277.5 yards per game through the air, this offense is capable of much more. While they may not have the Chase Coffman's, Chase Daniel's, or Jeremy Maclin's of the world on the team anymore, they are still a talented and explosive offense that needs to be respected.

(Gabbert is turning into one hell of a QB)

Defensively, the Tigers have struggled a little bit this year. While playing a soft schedule, the MU defense has given up almost as many yards on the ground as their offense has gained (699-680). Slightly inconsistent, they allowed big TD runs of 75 and 93 yrds to spur a SDSU comeback that almost stunned the Tigers at home 2 and a half weeks ago. On the edges it's a slightly different story. The Tiger defense is slightly stauncher against the pass, holding opponents to under 200 yards per game.

Overall, their defense could be considered a weak point. Yards can be gained here; If SDSU can run for 250 yards, CU's emergent run attack should rack up as many (if not more) against this Missouri d-line. Team leaders are LB's Zaviar Gooden and Andrew Gachkar, and while they can play, they have allowed some big "gashers" on the ground.

Prediction Time

It would be foolish of me to pick CU to win. Foolish. With our recent road woes combined with the Missouri burr up our ass, anyone coming out and flat predicting victory is looking through the rosiest of rose-colored glasses. You just simply can't ignore 3 years of road losses and a 137 point 4-game deficit to these Tigers. That is not to say that I don't think that CU will be competitive.

The key is staying in the game. Part of the cause of the Cal disaster was falling behind early. Because of our offensive proclivities, it will be very hard for this team to come from too far behind. While we have come from behind in each of the past two weeks, the 10 point deficits in each game were relatively small. Should Missouri get ahead early, watch out.

If CU stays close through, let's say, the 1st quarter, then the ground game can start to go to work. I fully expect CU to get over 200 yards rushing on Saturday, and with those numbers we might just keep it close. Who knows, if CU gets those 200 rushing yards, and limit special teams mistakes (long-shot), maybe we could pull the upset.

What's funny is, should CU win, the schedule sets up of a hell of a year. With home games against Baylor and Texas Tech, CU could be 6-1 heading into the Oklahoma game. After that, with an easy-ish trip to KU and home games against ISU and Big XII north strongmen Kansas St., CU could make that final trip to Nebraska actually mean something.

Of course, for that to happen, CU would need to beat Missouri.... on the road.... at night. Not going to happen.

CU falls, but competes: MU 31 CU 20

GO BUFFS!