Tourney Talk

With the Buffs now firmly entrenched on "the bubble", it's time to talk not only where CU can end up in the conference tournament, but the national one as well.

Alec and the Buffs still have work to do in order to fight their way into the Tourney.  From: The BDC

In order to make their first Tourney appearance in 8 years, CU should win each of the final 2 regular season games to make it to 20 overall wins.  While the mystical "20-win" round number marker no longer means what it used to, it is a general indicator, in a power conference, that you belong in the Tourney. 

If CU can get to 20, it'll be hard to keep them out, weak non-conference schedule be damned.  Additionally, 2 more wins probably vaults CU into the 5th seed in next weeks conference tournament (with that plum 1st-round game against ISU) as I'm still assuming Kansas can beat Missouri on the final day of conference play (Although, as we all saw last night with KSU/Texas, things don't always go as planned).

Could CU still make the Tournament after losing one of the next two ballgames?  Sure, but it would take an outstanding run in the Big XII tournament, possibly to the final, to make the selection committee forget a late-season loss to a lesser opponent.  Best to win these final 2.

The good news is that getting those final 2 wins comes at a slightly easier cost than getting the 18th last Saturday.  CU just needs to beat struggling Iowa State on the road tomorrow night and defeat rival Nebraska at what will probably be a sold-out CEC this Saturday to reach the 20-win plateau.  While I'm not going to sit here and count my chickens before they've hatched, this schedule is more favorable than if CU still had to play one of the Kansas schools or travel to College Station.

Having to go through the Huskers to make the Tourney will be tough, but it could be worse.

Once CU gets to KC, and assuming KSU doesn't stumble against ISU in their final game of the season, the Buffs will have a first round opponent.  It is absolutely imperative that they win this game.  Even with 20 wins, a CU team who loses to a low-RPI team in the first-round of the Big XII tournament could still end up in the NIT should other bubble teams play deeper into their respective tournaments.

So essentially, CU still needs 3 wins.  Go get 'em, boys!

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When looking at the national implications, without a run to the semi-finals of the conference tournament, I think the Buffs are probably going to end up in the "First Four" mini-tournament in Dayton, OH.  That soft non-conference schedule (ranked in the 320's nationally) is like an anchor around the Buffs necks, keeping them tied to the lower reaches of the bracket.  Things could certainly shake out to keep them off the bottom line, but I think most scenarios at this point have CU as "sneaking" into the Tournament.  I still don't like Tournament expansion (from the 34 at-large teams of previous years to 37 this year), but I'll keep my mouth shut if the Buffs get in because of it.

I guess pre-Tournament is better than no Tournament at all.

Obviously, this time of year invites scoreboard watching.  While there are plenty of teams anxiously playing out their final few games left on the schedule, here are a few that Buff fans may want to follow with some extra attention (read: root against them):  Illinois, Richmond, Alabama, Michigan, Baylor, Wichita St, Clemson, Boston College, Colorado St. Maryland, Nebraska, and Memphis.  A few of these teams play tough games this evening.  Here's a list of 5 games that CU fans should be follow closely tonight, along with a short explanation as to what the game could mean:

Illinois @ Purdue - I still think the Illini could play themselves out of the Tournament.  They've played a tough schedule, but have lost some howlers this season (UIC, @Indiana, @Northwestern).  Their saving grace might be that final game against Indiana; losing in Bloomington is one thing, losing to them in Champaign is another matter entirely.

Alabama @ Florida - How can a team who lost to St Peter's be in Tourney discussion?  Well, they're the #1 team in the SEC West (which is like wining the Big East in football), and if they win this game would probably be in the Dance.  Here's to them falling on their face.

Mizzou @ Nebraska - Nebraska is way on the outside the Tourney discussion.  They would have to win out, and have a strong showing in KC to make it in my estimation.  Not out of the question with their defense, but very unlikely.  If they win tonight it would set up a titanic match-up on Saturday, possibly for a spot in the Dance.

Baylor @ OSU - Hanging around, hanging around, this team's got alligator blood.  Baylor just won't die off.  CU needs to find separation from them to better their conference seed, but just can't seem to slip by them.  Any trip to Stillwater, even when the Cowboys are playing bad basketball, is tough, but CU may have to wait untill the weekend to leap-frog the Bears.

Boston College @ Virginia Tech -  BC is a team with similar resume to the Buffs.  They started 3-0 in conference before falling on hard times.  They even have a loss to Harvard and a win against Indiana.  If the Eagles have any hope of making the Dance, they have to beat VaTech tonight.  C'mon Hokies!

96 team tournament would be a mistake

America loves brackets. This is a mantra I repeat often; mostly because I love the NCAA Tournament.... as currently constituted. There has been increased rumblings this year that the tournament will expand to 96, and I've touched on my thoughts earlier this year. But today brings the news that Big 10(11) commissioner Jim Delany, one of the most powerful individuals in collegiate athletics, used the word probable when discussing the possible expansion. If he's talking "probable," then it's probably coming.

It's easy to see why he would view expansion as probable. The NCAA will make more money; CBS, who I'm assuming will re-up their contract, will be able to show more games, over a longer period of time (making more money); Universities will have an easier time making the dance, and its lucrative exposure, thereby making more money; coaches get to keep their jobs (and make more money). Everybody wins in this equation... except people who care about regular season basketball.

As it is, the importance of the regular season is being diminished. Conference tournaments, combined with the tournament itself, kill the excitement of the college basketball regular season. Wins and losses only set you up for the two March tournaments. Relatively speaking, a big win (or loss) in January means nothing; as long as the rest of your "body of work" is acceptable, and you can always make up for lost time in your conference tournament. This concerns Delany too. In the linked article he is quoted as saying "I'm not looking to see the basketball season made less relevant because we do an expansion without knowing a lot about this." He knows, as well as anybody else who follows basketball, that this idea will be ruinous to the regular season.

For an example of what an expanded field would look like, you can simply add 31 of the 32 teams from the NIT to the Tourney. Expand the tournament to 96 games, and the diluted regular season issue is intensified. Suddenly anybody with an above .500 record (in a major conference) is "on the bubble." As much as I love the CU basketball team, there is no way they should've been in any sort of NCAA tournament discussion this season. Same goes for UNC, UCONN, Seton Hall, Texas Tech, Northwestern, South Florida, NC St., Cincinnati, Illinois, St. John's, or most of the other teams in the NIT that failed to make the current 65 team Tourney field. Who of this group really needs to be represented in the dance? If you're expecting some sizable amount of small schools to get tossed in, you've just fooling yourself; it's gonna be big schools, from big conferences, with 17-15 records.

("You're fooling yourself" if you don't think that this is just a cash grab)

Yes, only 19% of the 347 Div 1 basketball teams make the tournament, but that number is just eye candy. I doubt the true div 1 credentials of many of those teams, and that stat just leads me to believe that div 1 basketball needs to be split up in much the same way that football is.

(That's a lot of teams. link for full view)

At the end of the day, I just don't believe that there are 96 teams in division 1 on a yearly basis that deserve a chance to compete for a national championship. The Tournament should be exclusive. Yes, it is a shame that some deserving teams miss out. But you don't need to include 31 more teams to ensure that one or two deserving teams don't get jobbed. That'd be like performing surgery with a chainsaw: you'll probably do more damage than good. Expand the Tourney to 68 teams (4 play-in games) if there must be expansion. It's a much more sensible solution to an almost non-existent problem.