2014-15 CU vs Utah Basketball Preview #1 - The Road Trip of Death Begins

So, just how rough is the next stretch of three games?  Well, the Buffs now go on the road to the two best teams in the league, before a finishing visit to the program that has been a personal demon in recent years. It's not just that Utah and Arizona are the Pac-12's best; they're clearly the best, (seriously, back to back visits to SLC and Tucson? *smh* Fuck the dude who dreamed that beast up) and Arizona State, while not nearly as good as they were the last two years, should still make things mighty uncomfortable for Colorado in Tempe. Friend of the blog @Hyperhedman asked my thoughts on the chances that CU could go 2-1 or 3-0 on this trip (15%, 3%, respectively).  What he didn't ask were my thoughts on the chances CU could go 0-3. I honestly figure it's about a 50-50 proposition.

It's not that I've completely forgotten the goings on at the CEC over the weekend - when the Buffs roared past the SoCal duo of UCLA and USC - it's just that going on the road is a completely different matter, and the environments in play (yes, even Tempe), are no joke.  Even with the probable return of Josh Scott, and the recent emergence of the bench as a scoring threat, this road trip will test the Buffs to no end.  Should they come home 1-2, wining any of the three, while staying relatively competitive in the others, I would take it as an overall victory. 

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Of course, first up on this Road Trip of Death is a particularly uncomfortable jaunt to Salt Lake City.  The Utah Utes, now the #9 team in the country, have come out of essentially nowhere (6-25 three years ago) to become a dark horse Final Four contender.  They've turned the Huntsman Center into a house of horrors for visiting opponents (haven't lost there since Arizona came calling last February), and seem to be an insurmountable challenge for Colorado.  But, of course, that's why they play the games.

Tip-off from the Beehive State is set for 7pm this evening.  Coverage can be found on ESPN2, with the radio call on 850 KOA.

Click below for the preview...

Tuesday Grab Bag: Back on Track?

With a short turn around to tomorrow's game with Utah, there's little time for idle chit-chat.  Straight to business!

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Today in the bag, I'm talking the beat down of USC, how the rest of the Pac-12 fared over the weekend, and a little NFL playoffs.

Click below for the bag...

2014-15 CU vs USC Basketball Preview #1 - Needing to Capitalize

No Josh Scott, 16 allowed offensive rebounds, and as many turnovers (18) as made baskets.  If you would've handed me those facts before Friday night's tilt with UCLA, I would've told you there was no chance that CU would win.  Instead, thanks to a series of intense efforts inside the paint (and a little luck), Colorado made the plays necessary to grab a crucial 62-56 win over the Bruins in the conference opener. A welcome change of pace.

A deservingly happy group of Buffaloes.  From: the BDC.

So how, given the numerous second chances and turnovers afforded to the visitors, did the Buffs manage to come away with such a massive win?  It comes down to UCLA's three point shooting (abysmal), and CU's free throw rate (superb).  The Bruins were ice cold beyond the arc, only making 6-26 for the game.  It wasn't so much that Colorado's perimeter defense was that good (although Jaron Hopkins did a solid job on Bryce Alford - 0-9), the kids from Westwood were just blatantly missing open looks from the wing.  The performance struck me as more flukish than telling, but I'll certainly take it.  From the line, at least, it was all about Colorado getting their shit together, as crunch time attempt after crunch time attempt went down.  The Buffs were 21-25 on Friday, salting the game away to stave off frantic UCLA comeback attempts.

The lack of Scott was made known about a half hour before the game.  Colorado's prized power forward was sidelined with back spasms, leaving the still-developing grouping of Wes Gordon, Dustin Thomas, and Tory Miller to go toe-to-toe with one of the better forward corps in the West.  The thing is, forced to dig deep, the trio answered the bell with a ferocious defense of the rim that really helped CU cover up the loss of Jelly.  Keyed by a career performance for Gordon, who finished three blocks shy of a triple-double with an 11/14/7 line, the Buffs more than held their own in the paint.  More importantly, they got their counterparts embroiled in foul trouble to open up the lane, keeping options open for the offense.

Wes Gordon stepped up on defense in Scott's absence.  From: the BDC

The three young forwards were helped by the energetic presence of Xavier Johnson.  The fiery Californian played significant minutes in the four-slot, showing a tenacity down the stretch that UCLA had no chance of countering.  The lefty would finish with 14/6 and three steals, but his contagious exuberance in the final minutes ended all doubt of a CU win.

On the perimeter, the tandem of Askia Booker and Jaron Hopkins continued to develop, with both proving able to push the pace and break down the defense.  I'm really starting to like what I see from the pair, and the offense has a different timbre to it when both are on the court.  They combined for 27/9/5/4 against UCLA, and, while there were still mistakes, played well.

Great win, Coach, but are you sure about that color of shirt when playing UCLA?  From: the BDC

Overall, it wasn't a particularly pretty effort, but this program has made a lot of hay in recent years winning ugly.  As disappointing as the start to the year has been, if this is a sign of things to come, I'll happily take it. The conference campaign is all that matters now, and the team is off to a perfect 1-0 start.  So far, so good.

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The focus now turns to the USC Trojans.  CU needs a win today to fully capitalize on Friday's victory over UCLA. Southern Cal is a youthful enigma, and should be beatable, especially at home, but I'm still not convinced that the Buffs are fully on the mend.  How they approach today's game will tell us all a lot.

Tip-off from the CEC (now with beer!) is set for high noon today.  For those not able to make it up to Boulder, coverage can be found on Pac-12 Networks, with the radio call on 850 KOA.

Click below for the preview...

2014-15 CU vs UCLA Basketball Preview #1 - Into conference play

Happy New Year!  I took the last week off recovering from my miss-adventures in the Aloha State, but am back and ready for more!

It strikes me that, with all the excitement of Christmas Day, I never got around to posting my Hawai'i game recap.  For those who didn't get a chance to watch, the game played out like a greatest hits album of what's been troubling the Buffs recently. Fighting for third place on the final day of the Diamond Head Classic, CU held a late lead over the host Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors. However, stunted by an inability to defend the perimeter (what new) and a painful scoring drought over the final five minutes (a new take on an old tune), CU coughed up that 62-58 lead, eventually losing 69-66. It was the second time in as many games that the team couldn't turn a second half advantage into victory.  The loss left the trip to the Islands at an uncomfortable 1-2, and the team with more questions than answers.

Hawai'i got to celebrate on Christmas Day.

Perimeter defense continues to be CU's Achilles heel.  Opponents are scoring almost 35% of their points from deep this season against Colorado, which is simply criminal.  The Warriors, playing inspired ball in front of their home crowd, were always going to be a tough nut to crack, but it's hard to beat any team when you're allowing 9-18 shooting from behind the arc. Down the stretch, however, the story was more about play making - as in the ones Colorado wasn't converting. The Buffs would go the final 5:07 of the game without hitting a field goal.  As the clock ticked down, CU would turn the ball over more times (4), they they even attempted shots (3). It was a painful inability to mix clock management with a struggling offense.

Generally, it was hard for CU to find any offensive rhythm.  Hawai'i forced 16 turnovers, muscled out six blocks, and grabbed nine steals.  Only the big three of Askia Booker, Xavier Johnson, and Josh Scott could find any joy with the rock, scoring all but six of Colorado's points.  The inconsistency from the second unit was paramount.  While Coach Boyle shortened his bench, the inability of anyone other than those three to make a damn basket really limited the Buffs in the second half.

Not enough from players like Dustin Thomas. 

Look, CU proved good enough to play with both George Washington (the eventual tournament champions) and Hawai'i (a home team leveraging their advantage well), but lost both because they couldn't make the plays in the final minutes.  There'd be a sudden breakdown on defense, or a lack of creativity on offense, and the team would fall into defeat.  Those were both games this program would've found a way to win over the last few years, and they're a prime example of what is wrong in 2014-15.  Against good teams, the Buffs are just too good at finding ways to lose - the how and why a team full of talent goes 7-5 in non-conference play.

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And so, the Buffs return home searching for answers, only to find conference play waiting.  This is a dangerous time for CU.  The opening rounds of Pac-12 action are brutal, and the season could completely spin out of control if they aren't successful this weekend in the home games against the SoCal schools.  Up first: a similarly inconsistent UCLA squad.  Colorado has yet to beat the Bruins in the Pac-12 era, losing the four matchups by an average of 13 points, and could surely use a buck of the recent trend this evening.

Tip-off from the CEC is set for 8pm.  Those still on Winter Break can avail themselves of either the Fox Sports 1 broadcast, or Mark Johnson's radio call on 850 KOA.

Click below for the bag...

2014 Diamond Head Classic: Day 3

Honolulu, HI, the Diamond Head Classic, Dec 25th --

Mele Kalikimaka!  I hear there's a white Christmas in Boulder today.  I don't mean to brag, but that is not going to be the case in Honolulu.  80 and sunny.  The sacrifices I make for being a basketball fan...

Of course, all is not well in BuffNation after Tuesday's 53-50 loss to George Washington in the semifinal of the Diamond Head Classic.  After a rough start, CU fought back, and looked to have a shot to win before a final minute letdown saw the Colonials get the 'W.'  A final play that involved Askia Booker going 1-on-2 with a pair of tall GW defenders yield the expected results (a blocked shot), and the Buffs were left wondering 'what if.'

The team played better than a lot are giving them credit for, but the loss still stings.  From: the BDC.

For much of the game, I was pleased with Colorado's play.  They started out like crap - as Tad screamed, 'LOSING THE TOUGHNESS BATTLE' as the team fell behind by nine in the first half - but eventually began to find a comfort level, and closed the halftime gap to only four.  It only got better into the second half, as CU began to really attack the George Washington zone with the returning Booker (two quick fouls in the first had him on the bench).  By being aggressive, and working the ball, quickly, around the perimeter to open up holes, they built a six point lead with 10 minutes to play.  Given a few better bounces at the rim, it could've been more.

Unfortunately, however, timidity seeped back into the minds of the guards, and working the clock - trying to find the 'perfect' shot, rather than just a good one - really stilted to CU offense.  While the defense continued to play well (overcoming a soft whistle from the over-eager officials [to both sides]), points just weren't coming with enough regularity, and rhythm died.  GW would go on to get a few favorable bounces at the end, and made more plays than CU; a familiar story.

It didn't need to be this way.

The stat sheet is very negative on the offensive side.  1-12 beyond the arc, 11-17 from the line (Josh Scott was an uncharacteristic 4-8), and a 4:14 A:T ratio.  Just ugly.  Wes Gordon was fantastic - only 3-8 from the field, but an active presence - but few others come close to that praise.  All-in-all, a forgettable day. GW was throwing a few zone looks out there, but CU seemed capable, at times, of beating it.  Had they stayed aggressive, continuing to dribble-drive at the gaps, I think the team would've won.

The result is that we know no hardware is coming back on the plane with the Buffs, and the non-conference schedule is guaranteed to be devoid of quality wins.  The loss also drops them into the third-place game with the host Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors; an uncomfortable arrangement.  For their end, the 'Bows took the heavily favored Wichita State Shockers to the limit, forcing them into overtime through a joyous effort in front of their faithful fans.  They'd fall 80-79 in the end, but have proven through two games that they will not back down from a challenge.  While not a 'good' team, the Warriors are at least very capable on their home court, and will push CU this afternoon.

Hawai'i nearly pulled off the upset of the tournament against WSU.

Any road game is a terror, but Hawai'i does a few things that will really cause Colorado some problems. Namely, a combination of a 2-1-2 trapping press and a 2-3 zone should wreak havoc with CU's more patient guards.  Given a few consecutive TOs, the crowd will be in it, and runs will happen. The
'Bows don't have a front line to match up, but I'm worried it may not matter if the Buffs can't consistently get the ball up without it becoming a 'thing.'  Accordingly, I'm expecting a loss this afternoon; an unfortunate conclusion to a week that started with a lot of potential.

If you're wondering what happened in the other games... well don't, because they weren't interesting.  Ohio U laughed past DePaul, 99-78, and Nebraska sleep-walked through a 50-42 OT win over LMU.  Neither efforts were worthy of your time or consideration, and paled in comparison to the two from the winner's bracket.  I have higher hopes for Ohio/Nebraska today, however, which could wind up being interesting.

Day 3 -

Loyola Marymount vs DePaul - 11:30 am MT, ESPN3

Ohio University vs Nebraska - 2 pm MT, ESPNU

Colorado vs Hawai'i - 4:30 pm MT, ESPN2

George Washington vs Wichita State - 6:30 pm MT, ESPN2 


GO BUFFS! BEAT THE RAINBOW WARRIORS!

2014 Diamond Head Classic: Day 2

Honolulu, HI, the Diamond Head Classic, Dec 23rd --

I felt a certain amount of relief when I realized, about 10 minutes in, that DePaul had no chance to win yesterday.  Yes, the Blue Demons were able to pull within three points at halftime, but that was more due to silly CU mistakes and poor play from the subs than anything those in black and blue were doing.  With a little help from #TournamentSki, those mistakes were, largely, patched over in the second frame, and the Buffs cruised to a breezy 82-68 win on Day 1 of the 2014 Diamond Head Classic.

Grind of a few gears aside, CU had little trouble with DePaul.

It's important to note that DePaul is just not a very good basketball team.  They're sloppy, don't really play defense, can't shoot - really at all - and could only score by attacking the rim for cheap foul calls.  The Buffs made a significant amount of hay by forcing them to take long jumpers, and collecting on the resulting misses.  Combined with turnovers (DePaul had 18 of them), it helped Colorado kickstart the fast break, allowing them to keep the pace of the game high.  All told, the action in the Stan Sheriff Center went for 75 possessions - a pleasing tempo to ward off any of the occasional offensive malaise common to non-conference tournament play.

Really, though, this game belonged to Askia Booker.  'The little spark plug,' as MommaRumblin coined him, was a constant source of energy for Colorado, forcing the pace, and helping to break the Blue Demon press. He would go for 27/6/6 in 31 minutes, only committing one turnover.  It was the re-emergence of #TournamentSki, as the lead guard played his role perfectly.  It helped that DePaul was compliant in putting him on the line, as Booker went 14-14 from the stripe, but his was a very efficient performance overall (6-12 from the field against one turnover)

Ski had it rolling Monday afternoon.  From: the BDC

Booker wasn't alone, as Xavier Johnson, Wes Gordon, and Jaron Hopkins also cracked double-digit scoring. XJ was particularly effusive, putting up 20/7.  Gordon continues to show offensive improvement, putting up 11/5.  About the only one of the starting five Buffs to struggle was Josh Scott, who still looks to be recovering from his shutout against CSU.  This wide open affair largely passed him by, and he appeared a little lost on select offensive sets.  I hope he hasn't completely checked out, however, as Colorado will need him today against a very good George Washington team.

For their end, the Colonials blitzed a woefully under-skilled Ohio U squad in the early game, 77-49.  I was very impressed by GW's center, Kevin Larsen, who went for 19/15.  Not a big leaper, Larsen is just a quality big man.  He knows his role, demands the ball in good positions, and George Washington does a good job scheming to take full advantage.  He will be tough to contain.

GW is a whole different animal from the woeful Blue Demons.

Generally, I'm really nervous about this one, because the Colonials are not going to beat themselves, as DePaul was happy to do yesterday.  They don't turn the ball over (8 yesterday, under 18% for the season), take a lot of smart shots, and play good defense.  GW may not be a 'good' three-point shooting team, but the ones they take are well worked, and within their offense.  I'm expecting a CU loss, possibly even an ugly one, but would be happy to be proven wrong.  More #TournamentSki would help. Anything from Jelly would be even better.

In the action after dark, the Wichita State Shockers smashed Loyola Marymount 80-53 (raise the roof!), but Nebraska... well, the Huskers ran into a bit of trouble with the hometown Rainbow Warriors. As the red horde struggled against the press (18 turnovers), the feisty hosts scrapped and clawed their way to the only upset of the day, 66-58.  Not that I was biased in any way (*ahem*), but I fell hard for those in white, rooting right alongside with the hometown fans.  There is one downside to seeing Hawai'i win, however. With the loss, Nebraska falls to the second tier, leaving the afternoon games today significantly less dramatic. I guess you can't have everything.

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Day 2 -

Ohio University vs DePaul - 12:30 MT, ESPNU

Colorado vs George Washington - 2:30 MT, ESPNU

Hawai'i vs Wichita State - 7 pm MT, ESPN2 

Loyola Marymount vs Nebraska - 9:30 pm MT, ESPNU


GO BUFFS! BEAT THE COLONIALS!

2014 Diamond Head Classic: Preview/Day 1

Honolulu, HI, the Diamond Head Classic, Dec 22nd --

Aloha!  This post comes to you from the island of O'ahu in the great state of Hawai'i. Mele Kalikimaka, BuffNation!

Of course, I'm here for the Diamond Head Classic (well, not just the Classic, but you get the point).  Three days of basketball spread out over four days of Christmas vacation sounded like a hell of a deal to me, so off I went.  Regardless of how the on-court action goes, at least I'm in paradise, relaxing in the Pacific breeze.  It sure beats working.

I'm very interested to see how the Buffs take to this tournament.  The season hasn't gone as planned, but there's a prime opportunity here to right the sinking ship.  In Honolulu this week there are a host of RPI prizes waiting to beef up the resume, if only the team can just get their shit together.  To my mind, this can only go one of two ways.  The team is going to be forced to share the same space for the better part of a week, which adds a certain dynamism to recent rumors of a discordant locker room and various levels of in-fighting amongst roster and staff.  That close proximity can either cause a blow up, leading to three straight games of horrific basketball, or force the team to look within, possibly helping them to refocus on playing their best basketball. ... and, no, I have no inkling of which one will be the result; your guess is a good as mine.

The field for the 2014 Diamond Head Classic is littered with strong basketball programs.  There aren't any national title contenders in this group, but there are at least three Tournament teams, and another couple who should challenge for titles in their smaller leagues.  In the end, I see the field split into three groups - the proverbial favorite, the flawed second tier, and the also-rans.

The favorite - 

The best on the island are, of course, the WSU Shockers.  A Final Four participant from just a few short years ago, they remain a strong program, one of the best mid-major names around. Head Coach Gregg Marshall, the Shocker successor to Coach Boyle's mentor, Mark Turgeon, is the goods, legitimately one of the best coaches in the country. He's lead them through a progression of NIT champion in 2011, to conference champion in 2012, to the pinnacle of the sport in 2013, and a #1 seed in 2014. For the record, KenPom has them as the #11 team in the land this season, and only an overtime loss @ Utah has kept their record from perfection.

Marshall is going to make a ton of money in this game.

WSU plays a little slow, savoring possessions (almost 19 seconds per).  Don't let that fool you, though, as they are deadly efficient with the ball.  Lead by All-American candidate Fred Van Vleet, their top three in the backcourt can rival any Power 5 trio, and can beat you in a number of ways with their fluid sets.  Off-guard Ron Baker is a deadly outside shooter, combining well with Van Vleet and Tekele Cotton.  All told, they average about 40 per game.  About the only thing I don't like about them is their inability to get to the line enough, but that can be addressed in the future.

Van Vleet may be the best player in the State of Kansas.

Van Vleet has been struggling a bit this year, possibly in reaction to a mountain of pre-season hype.  His ability to fill-up the stat sheet has a direct correlative effect on how far the Shockers can go this winter. Even without him playing his best ball, however, Wichita State looks to be the prohibitive favorite to earn the Classic's trophy on Christmas Day.

The second tier - 

One of the reasons the Shockers seem to have such an easy path in front of them this week is that each of the teams in the second tier is flawed.

Take for instance BufNation's old 'friends,' the Nebraska Cornhuskers.  They were solidly in the preseason top-25, expected to push for a top three spot in the B1G.  What has developed, however, is that Tim Miles' bunch can't really score.  They're just over an adjusted .98 ppp, struggling with turnovers (21.5%), offensive rebounding (28%), and three point shooting (30.7%).  Add to that and embarrassing loss to something called 'Incarnate Word' in Lincoln, and the pre-season luster has quickly faded.

Tim Miles is the main reason for optimism in Lincoln.

Sharing the bottom half of the bracket with WSU, the potential Day 2 matchup between the Huskers and the Shockers seemed like a doozy when the bracket was first announced.  It should still be pretty good, as Nebraska defends enough to stay in games, and swing forward Terran Pettaway is legit, but I don't expect the fireworks I once did.

On the other side of the bracket, the second tier includes our own Buffaloes and George Washington.  As we all well know, Colorado is a schizophrenic bunch with the talent to compete, but they've yet to put it together on the court.  About the only surprise from them this week would be an 0-3 record, or a win over Wichita State in the final. Just as I could see them beating the other two in the second tier, given a good performance, a loss to DePaul and/or Ohio isn't necessarily out of the realm of possibility, either.  Really, anything is conceivable.

I like GW more than either CU or Nebraska, but I still see them as a solid step below the Shockers. Lead by coach Mike Lonergan, the Colonials project to be one of the stronger sides in the A-10 this season, and have a good shot to get back into the Tournament for a second-consecutive season. Kethan Savage is a really nice, athletic guard, Patricio Garino is a good scorer off the wing, and Kevin Larsen is a double-double threat up front (assuming both win today, Larsen/Scott should be a treat tomorrow).  Still, they don't have a lot of depth (only about 6.5 deep), and can tend to be a little one-dimensional.

Savage is a solid lead guard for the Colonials.

Their Achilles heel is outside shooting, as not one of their main starters has hit more than four treys this season. Looking ahead, this may be CU's best out against them, as teams routinely get at the Buffs from beyond the arc. Colorado has made even average three-point shooting teams look great this fall, however, so maybe this is GW's opportunity to stretch their legs a bit

Any of these three teams could wind up winning the Classic, but I just don't see how they hold a candle to the national power from Kansas.

The also-rans - 

What remains: DePaul, Ohio, LMU, and Hawai'i.  There seems to be a definitive gap in talent between the other four and this grouping.  That doesn't mean their can't be a 1st day upset, but the closest prediction of the opening round is Nebraska/Hawai'i (64% NU win probability, per KenPom), which is really only because the Rainbow Warriors are playing at home.  I'll pass on the lot; expect them all to lose day one.

Of passing interest would be the Blue Demons from DePaul, but moreso because CU drew them for the opener.  DePaul, once a regional power, suffered greatly over the last decade between the decline of their relationship with the Chicago Public League and the transition to the Big East.  Talent just isn't winding up in the Allstate Arena as it used to, and they haven't had the firepower to play the teams they've been scheduled against.

GAH! What the hell is that?!?

Coach Oliver Purnell brought in a decent recruiting class last fall, but Blue Demons haven't had a winning record since 2007, and I don't expect that fact to change in 2014-15.  Into the future, however, things may be different.  With the re-configuring of the Big East, the idea idea is that they may have a chance to get back into the race - leading to a new, dedicated $173 facility for the downtown Chicago program.

Their best player is probably Illinois transfer Myke Henry.  Averaging 16/6, the junior stretch forward takes a lot of shots, and is very active defensively.  He works well with sophomore guard Billy Garrett, who is more of your typical, slashing wing.  Up front is big 6-11, 255 lbs center Tommy Hamilton.  Garrett and Hamilton each draw a lot of contact, helping the Blue Demons get a lot of points with the clock stopped. Along with another wing, Jamee Crockett, all can shoot from outside (*gulp*), and make the defense uncomfortable.

Henry can ball, and needs to be canceled out.

Losers of their last three, including an embarrassing 31-point blowout in Corvallis, but holders of a very nice win over Stanford, I look at DePaul as a very inconsistent group.  On their best day they can make you pay for lethargy, but those best days are few and far between.  They love to play fast (15th fastest adjusted tempo), but don't rebound well (in the 290s both offensively and defensively).  That tells me that, barring a hot run from outside (certainly possible, as this team loves to bomb), one of their best days won't be today, as CU should have plenty of opportunities to counter-punch (27.5% of opponent's attempts come in transition).

The Buffs shouldn't lose today, but you never know with this bunch.  My breath will be held all the way up to tip, but I'm expecting a 'W.'

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Day 1 - All games on ESPNU

Ohio University vs George Washington - 12:30 MT 

Colorado vs DePaul - 2:30 MT 

Loyola Marymount vs Wichita State - 9 pm MT 

Nebraska vs Hawai'i - 11 pm MT 


GO BUFFS! BEAT THE BLUE DEMONS!