2016-17 CU vs Utah Basketball Preview #1

Well, finally, at long last, we have arrived at conference play.  The distraction of an extra month of football season now pushed aside, with some great pain, the way is clear for basketball to take center stage, once again.  Some of you who haven't been paying close attention could be very confused by what you see.  The Buffs are exactly where I expected them to be in the standings, 10-3 overall.  They have a KenPom profile in the top-70, a similar RPI ranking, defensive efficiency in the top-50 of the country.  Looks OK, right?

Well, for a team that has been winning at the expected clip, Colorado has been doing anything but living up to expectations.  The basketball on display, night in, night out, has been stilted, frustrating, and largely un-entertaining.  This is where what the eye sees contradicts the raw numbers. While they have been winning basketball games, and only really losing one that they shouldn't, the whole narrative of the season has been a dour slog.

The inevitable question is: so, what's the problem?  There is both the tangible and the intangible answer. Tangibly, the twin issues are hitting shots and rebounding.  CU was top-25 nationally last year in 3-point shooting, hitting near 39% as a team.  This year, they're dipping under 34% from outside, a number which seems better than what we actually endure every game.  Everyone wants to blame this on the absence of Josh Scott, as the phenomenal forward got to be very good at kicking out to open shooters last year. The problem with that excuse is that the players are still getting open attempts -- they've just biffing them. Indeed, Colorado's offense continues to look great when the shots are falling, but when good shooters like George King are down 15 percentage points from their efforts the previous year, inconsistency persists, and the overall product suffers.  As for rebounding, we knew it was potentially a troublesome spot, with the lack of depth up front, but the rates are so pedestrian (middle-third around the country) in an area the team systemically relies on that it's hurting results.  The BYU loss alone can be chalked up to this issue.

Then we come to the intangible.  Something is just... off with this roster.  The mix of backcourt veterans that was supposed to lead with heady experience is not playing to expectation.  They just don't seem to have a feel for each other, and I get the general sense that they don't even really want to be there every night.  Now, a lot of that is projecting, and it's hard to be all bubbly and smiling when working your tail off to come back from a near-20-point deficit against Eastern Washington, but the lack of intensity, focus, and determination from the tip is glaring.  This is the result of something I did not expect to deal with this season; a lack of leadership.  Maybe a result of having too many chefs in the kitchen, maybe the result of the natural vacuum left behind J40 when he graduated, regardless, Colorado is in dire need of someone on the team to step up and take charge.

All those frustrations expressed, it is helpful to note that the team has had over a week to exorcise some demons and reset the mindset.  While not a true fresh start, because every game counts, I can't help but view the holiday break as a chance to effectively wipe the slate clean.  Maybe, just maybe, the threat of conference play, combined with a cleared head, will shake off the rust that has been holding the team back.  Maybe, just maybe, we'll finally get the Buffs we were expecting when the ball tips in Salt Lake City.  We'll all just have to wait and see...

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Hype Music for the evening: "Auld Lang Syne" by Robert Burns

The New Year's traditional hymn 'Auld Lang Syne' is an adaptation of Scottish poet Robert Burns' 228-year-old stanzas.  Set to the tune of a popular folk song from the 18th Century, it has become the de facto incantation of the New Year for most of the English-speaking world.  I have as much of an idea of what it means as you do, but I mumble through it, none-the-less.  When the clock strikes midnight this evening, belt this one out, and bless the arrival of a fresh set of 365 pages on the calendar, that we might do some good with them.  Enjoy!

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Tip-off from the Huntsman Center in SLC is set for 4:30pm on Sunday.  ESPNU will have the broadcast rights, and may even bother sending their announcing crew out to Utah for the game.  If they don't, however, mute their in-studio garbage, and turn up the radio call on 760AM.  Mark Johnson will actually be there, you know.

Click below for the preview...

2016 Gameday Beer-o-the-week - Alamo Bowl Edition

Each week throughout the football season I'm going to suggest a good beer for the ubiquitous pre-game tailgate. Let's be honest, with tailgates it's not always top quality that you're looking for. To steal a phrase from the heinous beer terrorists at Budweiser, you want "drinkability." (or what a real beer connoisseur calls "a session beer") So, be warned, these may not be "the best" beers around. But, in the words of Dave Chappelle as Samuel L. Jackson "IT'LL GET YOU DRUNK!"

*sigh* Back to Texas.  I swore, upon graduation from CU in 2006, that I'd never go back to this godforsaken state, yet here I am.  I guess, if I have to dive back into Tyler's Folly, that I'll have to do this right.  As such, the beer this week is as big and nasty as the place itself.  It's a beer brewed to match the locale -- disgusting, rot-gut swill with no redeeming quality or value. Yep, it's Lone Star, and it's this week's gameday beer-o-the-week.

From: Wikipedia

Berthed in San Antonio itself, this beer has been around since the '40's.  Not brewed there any more, of course, Pabst bought them out at the turn of the century, and moved everything up to larger facilities around Ft Worth.  The flagship brew is an American Adjunct Lager.  You should know what that means, by now: it's a macro lager from a large conglomerate, akin to Bud Heavy and Coors Light.  As such, nothing of any substance has ever been within 500 feet of this beast.  Just processed extracts and fabricated 'flavor.'

I have some friends from college - idiots, really - who once tried to brew coffee with Lone Star.  It went about as you would expect, and they eventually had to fumigate the apartment.  Later, after the event, I asked them the obvious question, "why?"  Their response: "What else were we supposed to do with it?"

I guess I get the point.  Drinking this crap would be far down the list of any sensible, right thinking person.  It tastes like stale piss, if it tastes like anything at all.  The sweetness is all wrong, the bitterness is all wrong.  The whole package is watered down, which, in retrospect, is probably a good thing.  "The National Beer of Texas," indeed.  We should've left it all to Mexico.


Happy Thursday!  Go Buffs, beat Oklahoma State!

2016 Alamo Bowl Preview - CU vs Oklahoma State

Bowl games are stupid.  I know that's probably not the message you wanted to receive, here on the eve of Colorado's first bowl game in nearly a decade, but it's true.  Bowls are, in all but a few cases, pointless, corporate money grabs of the lowest order, and sporting culture is all the worse for having to put up with them over the final weeks of the year.

Sure, there is some value to having marquee events, like the Rose Bowl or the Orange Bowl, at the end of the calendar.  Occasional exhibitions between champions, like these, held out of tradition and as a showcase of football at its finest, are be fine.  I could do without it, but to each their own. The system as is currently in place, however, blows past them to instill an 'everyone gets a trophy` mentality to the sport, where even teams that go 5-7 are rewarded. There is simply no excuse for the 8th-best team from one conference to be playing the 7th-best team from another with absolutely nothing on the line.  It's pure filler -- a desperate attempt to grab some of your hard-earned cash, either through your eyes on a tire commercial or you actually traveling to the event.  I actually feel bad for the handful of fans who would allow themselves to be duped into something as foolish as the 'Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.' (I use this example for no particular reason)

"But, it's more football!' you might be saying.  My response to that is simple:

The lure of 'more football,' such as it is, is wasted here.  I can get myself to care about Colorado football, and I can even trick myself into paying attention to truly meaningful games with inherent history, but detritus like the 'Motel 6 Cactus Bowl' or the 'Dollar General Bowl' can't even come close to drawing my eye.

My appeal, then, is simple: end the bowl system.  Expand the playoffs, turn the worthwhile remainder into some kind of NIT or 'champions league,' and punt the rest into the sun.  ESPN will just have to go through life without the sunk costs of 20-or-so backwater bowls no one will miss anyway.

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Hype Music for the Week: 'China Grove' by the Doobie Brothers

My first thought for this game was to go with a country track, but that just ain't me.  Thankfully, the Doobie Brothers wrote this iconic 70s rock anthem about a tiny suburb east of San Antonio.  It features one of the best guitar riffs of all time, built around some jumbled lyrics about preachers and sheriffs with samurai swords.  Enjoy!

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So, after all that ranting and raving about how awful bowl games are, you'd think I'd be avoiding this one like the plague.  Well, you'd be wrong.  I actually am going to the Alamo Bowl, at great personal expense, but do not consider my trip hypocritical.  Colorado appearing in a bowl, a semi-worthwhile one, at that, is like seeing a unicorn.  You can't expect me to miss an opportunity to see a unicorn. When the draw is the Sun Bowl next winter, that's when I'll stay home.

For what it's worth, much of BuffNation seems to agree with me that a trip down to southern Texas is a good idea.  Based on ticket sales through the Athletic Department alone, at least 6,000 CU fans will be hitting the highways and airports en route to San Antonio this week, with even more expected who source their tickets through non-traditional methods.  Should be a big group of Buffs down on the Riverwalk tonight and tomorrow.

For the game itself, kickoff from the Alamodome is set for 7pm MT on Thursday.  Those not headed to San Antonio can catch the action on ESPN prime.  Mark Johnson and the radio call will be on 850 KOA.


Click below for the preview...

Eastern Washington Wrap

There have been times this basketball season where I've had cause to wonder just how deep the rabbit hole will go.  These fits of worry and concern have usually coincided with dispassionate and formless effort on the court -- for example, the entirety of the CSU game, the stretch run of the BYU visit, and the second half of the Ft Hays State fiasco.  Well, we can add a fourth entry to that list, and it's the opening 10 minutes of the Eastern Washington game.

'Momma, there goes that man again.'  Bliznyuk started off hot. From: SeattlePI.com

Colorado simply came out flat and lifeless against the Eagles in this one.  The starters couldn't hit shots, defense was essentially nonexistent, and at one point EWU had built a 19-2 lead.  By the second timeout of that first half there was even a smattering of boos from the assembled crowd, and I really couldn't blame any of them for voicing their disapproval.  This was about as bleak and hopeless as the program had looked since the final visit to Wyoming in 2014, and those Cowboys were a hell of a lot better than these Eagles are.

The most frustrating aspect was that the Buffs were not keying on the one guy in Black and Red that could beat them.  Bogdan Bliznyuk, the Eagles' freaky 6-6 point forward, was getting every shot he wanted early, torching defenders like George King and Josh Fortune for seemingly uncontested looks. By the 9:37 mark, he had already accumulated 18 points, and seemed to be on his way to leading a shocking blowout over the home favorites.

Del Brown and the reserves stanched the bleeding in the first half.  From: the Times Call

Then, the Buffs started to make adjustments.  The ineffective starters were pulled out, and the reserves allowed to enter the fray.  Behind all-encompassing efforts from players like Deleon Brown and Dom Collier, Colorado started to chip away at the EWU lead, which had been hovering between 10 and 17 points.  CU also switched up their defensive focus on Bliznyuk, putting the longer frames of Wes Gordon and Derrick White on the versatile scorer.  Suddenly, his wellspring of points dried up, and the lead began to shrink (Bogdan would record just seven points over the final 29 minutes of play).  By halftime, Colorado was within three, and appeared to have a pule, if faint.

After the break, that pulse quickened sharply, thanks to some open looks finally falling from the outside. Josh Fortune would lead the spark with three made three pointers in the final frame, fueling the rise of the once recumbent offensive attack.  For the half, CU would shoot 54% from the field, up 20 points from their first half performance.  Combined with suffocating defense on Bogdan and the tiring Eagles (32% shooting after half), it was enough for the Buffs to pull away and stave off absolute disaster.  The final, 76-68, was more of a sigh of relief than anything else.

A much better second half performance staved off disaster.  From: the BDC

Overall, another lackluster performance against a sub-par team.  The Buffs struggled to find their scoring touch against a legitimately terrible defense, forgot to stop the one guy who could hurt them for 10 minutes, and generally just didn't seem eager or interested to be out there Thursday night.  And that's the sense I get from this team night in and night out -- that they don't seem excited about taking the court this season, and would rather be just about anywhere else on a particular evening.  I know that's not the case, but the aesthetic is unmistakable. It's why the 10-3 finish to the non-conference slate of the schedule is far more concerning than the 10-3 I envisioned at the start of the year.  This isn't entertaining or joyous basketball, at the moment. It's a slog, and one that doesn't seemed destined to end up in a spot representative of the talent on this roster.

That's not to say there's nothing about this team that I've enjoyed over the first two months of play. Derrick White is a treasure.  A capable scorer, willing passer, and eager defender, he's an All-Pac-12 kind of talent, and one who should continue to shine as we dive into conference play.  The development of Deleon Brown is unmistakable, as well.  Every minute of playing time that kid is getting right now is earned, and he brings excellent tools and an earnest attitude to the court every night.  The Wes Gordon roller coaster is also highly entertaining, if still exasperating, and I continue to marvel at the talent of Xavier Johnson, who is, rather quietly, putting in great shifts.  Throw in the return of Dom Collier, and there's still some joy to be found in the product.

With those bright spots in mind, the promise of a few weeks off to clear their heads, and the danger of the opening stretch of conference play immediately over the horizon to draw in the focus, there's a realistic hope that the sum of the whole to finally begin to snap into shape.  I fear, however, that the rabbit hole is far deeper than we've discovered through 13 games, and that the introduction of Pac-12 opponents into the mix will only lead to further frustrations.  I do hope I'm wrong, however.

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Programming note:

As a reminder, there will be no Grab Bag next week, as I will be gallivanting around the Central Time Zone to both Chicago and San Antonio.  I will have a Alamo Bowl Preview, though (probably up on the morning of the 28th), and a Utah Basketball Preview (probably up on New Year's Eve), so keep an eye out for both. Normal service will resume the first week of the year.

Thanks all for your clicks in 2016, and I hope you have a happy and safe Holiday Week!  As always...

Air Force Wrap and 2016-17 CU vs Eastern Washington Basketball Teaser

Coming off what Coach Boyle called the most disappointing win of his tenure at Colorado, an ugly 10 point result over D-II also-ran Ft Hays State, the Buffs tuned around to follow it up with... another ugly win over an inferior opponent.  Monday's 75-68 scalp of Air Force, however, was significantly more palatable, quieting, for the moment, the pestering voices from the back of the hall that warn that CU is not yet ready for prime time.

The return of Dom Collier is a welcome sight for the Buffs.  From: USA Today

We saw a number of positive things in the Springs on Monday. After a rough start, Wes Gordon proceeded to put together one of his best all-around performances of the year, recording 10/9/3/5.  He was a force in the paint through the heart of the game, scaring off shots from Falcons, and calmly collecting loose rebounds.  He didn't finish strong, and could've had so much more offensively, but it's still the most we've seen from him in a while.  Further, the continued blossoming of Deleon Brown can no longer be overlooked.  Following up on a career-high scoring performance against the Tigers over the weekend, the freshman guard from Michigan recorded another solid game with 10 points and four assists in 24 minutes.  He's not flashy, but Del makes smart plays, shoots well, and, above all else, plays defense.  There's no more debate, he needs to be stealing minutes from some of the starters who continue to slump, if not outright burst into the starting five.  Finally, the return of Dom Collier from multiple foot fractures was very well received.  Clearly still not 100%, Collier was still able to cash in a trio of three-pointers, then drawing the defense away from their entrenchments around the rim.  The more he can do to open up the court, especially against the pack-lines in the Pac-12, the better for the Colorado offense.

All that said, this was far from a perfect effort.  The Buffs committed 16 turnovers (most of them in the opening 10 minutes), allowed 15 offensive rebounds, and threatened to pull a 2015-16 late (i.e., cough up a solid lead).  The rebounds are probably the most baffling.  There's just no reason to play -5 on the glass to a team like AF, especially as they were missing a lot of shots.  15 offensive boards to a team that largely plays the Princeton is awful, and, combined with what we saw in Provo and against FHSU, is only worrying.  Colorado survived this fault by playing quality defense (36% shooting allowed), and hitting their outside jumpers (42% from deep), but, as we've seen this season, when either of those categories slumps, the rest of the package isn't enough to earn wins.

How did the Falcons get so many rebounds?  From: USA Today

Still, at the end of the day, a win is a win, and no road dub comes without a hearty pat on the back. While not a 'hostile' environment, the trip to Clune Arena is not 'easy,' and the Buffs did well to ward off another RPI disaster.  In fact, with the result the Buffs are just one win away from being pretty much exactly where I expected them to be at the end of non-conference play: 10-3.  I'll leave you to ponder how I can disappointed with this team on the verge of tallying the exact record I predicted while I turn my attention to Eastern Washington.

The Eagles went and did a very neighborly thing this week -- they went on the road to Xavier on Tuesday night, giving me an opportunity to scout against a common opponent. The result didn't go well for EWU, either.  After some fireworks early, they settled into steady suffocation at the hands of Xavier, eventually tapping out at the end of an 85-56 drubbing.

The big thing that really jumped off the screen for me is how much they rely on isolated dribble penetration in their offense.  Not entirely sure if that's a key for head coach Jim Hayford every night, or just in this particular case against Xavier, but it didn't really strike me as an effective strategy, long term.  Simply, EWU doesn't have the skilled dribblers to pull that off every night, and it'll lead to a number of turnovers as quality teams adjust.  In fact, in this game the Musketeers quickly started bringing delayed traps to the dribbler at the top of the key -- sure enough, turnovers soon followed. Elsewhere, I noticed standard man-to-man defense, but one that got into a lot of trouble against hard cuts and quick passes; poor recovery overall.  Coupled with the fact that the Eagles don't have a true rim protector or a major rebounding threat in the paint, and this is a team that can give up buckets of points.

Xavier blitzed EWU on Tuesday.  From: the Charlotte Observer

Most of these observations are supported by their statistical profile.  Eastern Washington is 295th nationally in assist rate, tying into their isolated dribble-drive.  They're also 340th in defensive efficiency (giving up about 1.14 points per adjusted possession), and among the bottom-third in the nation in rebounding rates.  Really, the only thing that doesn't hold up is my comment about rim protection.  EWU is 28th nationally in defensive block rate, buoyed by the performance of senior forward Jacob Wiley underneath (11.3% individual block rate, 39 on the season).  The eye test, however, didn't really lead me to believe that, but what do I know.

Speaking of, Wiley had a strong game against Xavier, dropping 16/6/4/5.  The 6-7 senior grad transfer was All-America at his NAIA school last winter, making his a story akin to Derrick White -- coming up from a lower level of play to run with the D-I bigs.  He's averaging 14/8 so far for the Eagles, and really shines as an impact player on both ends.  It'll be interesting to see how Wes Gordon matches up with him.  'Good' Wes should have no issue, but 'Bad' Wes could get burned.

Working with Wiley up front is Aussie swing-forward Felix Von Hofe.  Hailing from Melbourne, he's more of an outside threat, as Alex looks to get up about 8 three point shots per game (40%). Colorado better be ready to defend him all the way to the arc, and hound him off open looks.  Still, Von Hofe can be a liability on the other end of the court, and highlights a major vulnerability in this roster -- just one player is listed over 6-7.  While there are no 'undersized' players, per se (no one listed under 6-3), they just don't have the bigs CU is used to playing.

Bliznyuk is the Eagles' best.  From: the AP

The best player on the roster, however, is clearly point guard Bogdan Bliznyuk.  I say point guard, as he dominates the majority of on-ball action when in the game, but the Ukranian product is much more of a point forward in the Kyle Anderson mold.  He's got great size for the spot (6-6, 215), and has the glidey, paced attacking style of UCLA's former square peg.  In some ways, he even reminds me a bit of the aforementioned Derrick White -- his speed and athleticism isn't going to 'wow' you, but he brings a lot to the table, and makes for an awkward matchup for many teams.  Bogdan is a prolific scorer, to boot.  He has seven games of at least 20-points this year, four of which were of at least 30.  It goes along with the theme that the Eagles really key off him; Bliznyuk eats up near 31% of possessions and 30% of shots.  Trapping off his dribble-drive, especially as his back turns, seems to be the way to counter him, however.

Long story short, this is a team that CU can plot a path to a solid win against, if they come out with focus and intensity.  The Buffs should be able to score as many as they want, while owning the glass, and taking advantage of the dribbler-focused offense of EWU.  Assuming nothing gets stupid, I'm anticipating a big win to close out the non-conference campaign.

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Tip-off from the CEC is set for 6:30pm MT Thursday night.  Coverage for those not coming up to Boulder can be found on Pac-12 Networks, with the radio call on 850 AM.


GO BUFFS!  PROVE ME RIGHT, AND BEAT THE EAGLES!

Ft Hays Wrap and 2016-17 CU vs Air Force Teaser

Early Saturday afternoon at the CEC, the Colorado Buffaloes found themselves in a battle far tougher than expected with the visiting Division II Fort Hays State Tigers.  After a generally positive first half, they had come out of the locker room for the final frame with waning energy, and were paying the price on the scoreboard.  As the minutes ticked by, the Tigers refused to go away, and the Buffs refused to put them away.  While, ultimately, Colorado was able to hang on for the 81-71 win, few home partisans left the gym that day feeling satisfied.

Coach Boyle pulled no punches after the game on Saturday.  From: the CU Independent

Coach Tad Boyle certainly wasn't.  Viewing just the latest slumping performance from his talented charges, he took to the post-game press conference like a pyro with a flamethrower, torching everything he could see.  In a rant eerily reminiscent of those from the 2014-15 season of woe, Tad started with this doozy: 

"This coaching staff has been here for seven years now, and this team has two things going for it right now. First they own the most disappointing loss in that seven-year span, vs. Colorado State a few weeks ago and now they can add to that the most disappointing win which is today’s win against Fort Hays State. I need to apologize to the fans of this team for the effort in the second half because it was terrible."

But he didn't stop there.  Continuing:

“Right now the way our team is playing right now, we’re a below average Pac-12 team. At least by the standards that I feel Colorado basketball has risen to over the past few years. We’ve got the capability to be as good as we want to be and we are able to beat anyone in the league. We don’t have the mental toughness to put anybody away. If we don’t figure it out it’s going to be an up and down year.”

He's not wrong, either.  My opinion of this collection of parts, as individuals, remains unchanged - they are undeniably talented and capable.  The problem is the product a whole is not working.  Like a soufflé jostled during the baking process, the mixture falls flat upon presentation, and settles into an unappetizing mess of once-promising ingredients.

Deleon Brown had a nice game, but the rest of the Buffs were out of sorts by the final whistle.  From: the BDC

A win is a win, but there's just no excuse for struggling with the Tigers this weekend, as focused on winning as they were.  You always knew Rob Davis would get his - which he did to the tune of 29 points, all coming in the second half - but the rest of that roster is one that CU should've chewed up. Yet, by the end of the game, the Buffaloes appeared cowed and distracted, looking like they wanted to be anywhere but on the court at that moment.  It's a performance that, when viewed in conjunction with the the CSU disaster and the other inconsistent meanderings throughout the first month of the season, only confirms that Colorado doesn't have it this season.  They aren't tough enough, combative enough to win the kind of games you need to to live up to the recent vintage of this program.

The hammer is coming, too.  Conference play looms over the horizon, and, as down as the majority of the Pac-12 is this year, the opening stretch of games (@ Utah, @ ASU, @ UofA, vs UCLA, vs USC) now looks to muddle this bunch into a fine paste.  Barring some light switch moment, this is all going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better.

Those discomforting thoughts aside, its now time to consider tomorrow evening's road tilt with Air Force in the Springs.  The Buffs have had the run of this series of late, winning the last six meetings, including last season's 81-70 romp in the CEC.  A trip down I-25 is never easy, however, and CU had better bring an improved intensity with them Monday if they want to avoid another embarrassing in-state defeat.

Air Force has been struggling in recent years under the tutelage of head coach Dave Pilipovich. The program that had been an early-2000s juggernaut has had just one winning season since 2008-09, and seems destined for another low-table finish in the Mountain West this winter.  After a 5-0 start to the season, they've won just one game since Thanksgiving, taking losses to shrug-worthy sides like East Carolina, Army, and Denver.

Kocur is a lights-out shooter that could sting Colorado.  From: Trib.com

Still, they are an interesting bunch that returns a number of starters from a year ago, including their entire backcourt.  Leading the charge is senior Zach Kocur, a native Denverite with a sweet shooting touch.  His numbers this season are not dissimilar from Ft Hays' Rob Davis, as Kocur is shooting 56% from deep with an eFG near 77%.  He can stroke it, and will knife Colorado for lazy shows off screens and otherwise slumping coverage beyond the arc.  Teaming with juniors Jacob Van, Trevor Lyons, and CJ Spiles, this is a very capable core, one that can put up a lot of points and hit a lot of jumpers.  Overall, Air Force is the #2 three-point shooting team in the country, hitting on over 44% of their takes.

The real key for the Zoomies, though, is what, if anything, they can get from their post players.  They don't really have what you would call a 'real' center, and give up a lot of size in the paint.  Still, forwards like Hayden Graham and Frank Toohey provide some capable options when defenders neglect their duties to spy on the shooters on the perimeter.  The 6-5 Graham, especially, is having a nice season, leading the team in scoring and rebounding through 11 games.  A solid swing forward, the senior can shoot, attack off the dribble, grab some rebounds, and defend in the paint as needed, despite giving up some size.  He plays well with Toohey, and they pair could give Colorado's inconsistent forward corps fits for not bringing energy and focus to the court.

Graham is a fun wing with good versatility.  From: News OK

Of course, when I talk about Air Force, I'm also talking about the style of basketball they play, namely the Princeton.  By now, you should be familiar with the brand -- a style that values each possession, that relies on versatility from each of the players on the court, and that lives and dies by structured off-ball motion. On Monday there will be back cuts, there will a crap-ton of passes out on the wing (assists on most made baskets), and there will be extended possessions deep into the shot clock. The emphasis is on finding the highest quality shot available, and the Falcons will be willing to wait Colorado out in the pursuit of just that (280th in offensive possession length, over 18 seconds per). More importantly, it will test the focus of the Buffs' defense, who have to know where man and ball are at all times, lest they get burned bad.

As uncomfortable as playing the Princeton has made me in years past, Colorado has done well against it, even in down years.  As such, I'm cautiously optimistic that they will be able to grind out a win against the hosts on Monday, though the affair will probably be as ugly as possible.  The Falcons won't contest the offensive glass, giving the Buffs a good shot at hitting their rebounding numbers, and will give up a lot to Xavier Johnson in the paint.  Unless AF gets blazing hot from deep, which is still very possible, I think the Buffs eek this one out.  Believe me, though, I'm nervous.

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Tip-off from Clune Arena in Colorado Springs is set for 7pm Monday evening.  Not a terrible drive down for those of you thinking of going, I would expect a solid grouping of Buffs in the stands for this one. Coverage for those who'd rather avoid the jaunt along I-25 will be on CBS Sports Network (note: not regular CBS, but their cable outfit buried deep in your channel catalog), with the radio call on 850 KOA.


GO BUFFS!  PROVE ME RIGHT, AND BEAT THE FALCONS!

2016-17 CU vs Ft Hays St Basketball Teaser

Now comes the point of the basketball year where I get to pretend to know anything about a DII school. Let's be honest - and I like to be honest in this little corner of the internet - I haven't seen the Ft Hays State Tigers play this year.  Hell, I've only even heard of one of the opponents on their schedule to-date, the Colorado Mines Orediggers, let alone having seen any of them play.  I'm coming into this one blind as a bat, just as you are.

But, as you well know by this point, our own Derrick White started at the DII level, so the assumption I'm working off is that there must be some other capable players hooping among those ranks. As such, it wouldn't pay to just blithely chalk this one up as a win and move on.  No, I know that on any given Saturday, this game can bite you in the ass, so here I go delving into the stat sheets and media guides of the Sunflower State's third-largest university.

They got a head coach and everything, guys!  From: the Great Bend Post

Now... let's see here... clicking on the 'media guide' link on the FHSU webpage only brings up last year's document.  Not very helpful.  The team is coached by... Mark Johnson?!?  Like "Touchdown! Touchdown, Colorado!" Mark Johnson? "Right between the eyes!" Mark Johnson?  That doesn't seem very fair to me... oh, nevermind. Different dude. This MJ has been coaching at Ft Hays for 16 seasons, which is just crazy.  Over that period, he has set the school record for wins with 311, and led the Tigers to seven Tournament appearances and nine 20-win seasons.  That's a record you can be proud of, even at a small school.

In addition to a page that accurately lists their head coach and his accomplishments, their website also features a stat sheet that seems to be updated, so bully for me.  The Tigers are 7-4 this year, and some quick math shows them getting about 1.17 points per possession on about 67 possessions per night. Extrapolate that out, and they pump in just shy of 80 points per game, shooting near 50% from the floor and 43% from three.  Not too shabby.  This is a team that likes to see the ball go through the hoop, and all but one of their losses this season have come while they couldn't crack the 70-point barrier.  Stopping their dynamic shooting will be imperative... I would assume.  Again, never seen any film on them.

The key talent seems to be lead guard Rob Davis.  The 5-11 spark plug from Detroit leads the team in scoring with 24 per contest, and is shooting over 56% from beyond the arc.  You read that right, fifty-six percent.  The senior was All-Conference last season (Which conference? The Mid-America Intercollegiate Athletics Association, duh.) and is the kind of shooter you lose sleep over.  He already has three games of at least 30 points this year, and usually takes at least five threes each game -- only Washburn has kept Davis without a long-range attempt this season.  Sure, he's under-sized, but Rob will give CU fits outside on Saturday.

Davis is an excellent, willing shooter.  From: FHSU Athletics.

Out on the wing, swing forward Hadley Gillum has some interesting numbers, as well.  A Hays-area local, the junior from Plainville, KS is averaging 14/6 this season, and has the second-most rebounds on the team. He'll be up against it in this one, though, as the 6-5 Gillum will be looking to rebound against bigger, more athletic forwards in Wes Gordon, Xavier Johnson, and Tory Miller.  On that note, their best post player is 6-9 center JaQuan Smith, who spent some time on a D-I roster last season with Stephen F. Austin.  He's tenacious on the offensive glass with a ORB% over 17% this year.  The Buffs can't afford to give him second looks to kick out to Davis on the edge.

Overall, it's about what you'd expect.  The roster is a little undersized, and Colorado should be able to get what shot they want, when they want it.  The only thing that gives me pause is some of the offensive efficiency numbers I see, particularly in regards to Davis.  If he gets his, and Colorado struggles with their own shooting performance, this could be uglier than most fans are expecting. Ultimately, though, no reason to predict or fear the disastrous -- Colorado should win walking away. Time for Mitch Lombard and Josh Repine to shine.

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Tip-off from the CEC is set for high noon on Saturday.  It's going to COLD for the game, and I'm not expecting a whole lot of people will brave the frigid temps to watch Colorado take on a D-II squad. If you do make it up to campus, however, you can consider yourself a true fan.  For those unwilling to cut through the elements, coverage can be found on Pac-12 Networks, with the real Mark Johnson on 850 KOA with the radio call.


GO BUFFS!  PROVE ME RIGHT, AND BEAT THE TIGERS!