2013 NCAA Tournament Preview: Illinois

One day of Madness in the bag, and my bracket is torn to all hell.  The devastation was all encompassing.  I almost shed tears.  But there's no use crying over broken brackets; there's still five more days of Madness to go.  At this point, I'm ready to shred the poor sheet, and simply enjoy the action.  I'll probably be better off for it.

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More than a week since their last game, the Buffs are finally set to run back out onto some hardwood.  It's a nearly unprecedented second-straight year in the NCAA Tournament for the budding program, which in and of itself is an accomplishment.  I would imagine, however, that Coach Boyle and crew are not about to be satisfied with just hearing their names called.

Just getting to the Dance can't be enough.  Wins define your legacy.  From: the BDC

In all their wisdom, the Selection Committee set CU up with a nearly mirror-image opponent: Illinois.  Much like the Buffs, the Illini won their holiday tournament, and rode the wave to an early, over-zealous ranking.   That rise would plateau with with early set-backs in conference play, leading many to question whether they ever as good as they showed in November and December.  While they did manage to pull some upsets in February, they never got around to playing top-25 basketball again, and mostly proved to be inconsistent.  Sound familiar?  I bet it does.

There are some on-court differences, however.  The Illini are more experienced, come from what many say is the nation's best conference, and shoot a ton of threes.  CU revels in it's youth, while possessing a better interior game, and relish the opportunity to attack the defense inside the perimeter.

How those narrative similarities and stylistic differences blend make this one of the most interesting matchups of the first round.  Pat yourself on the back, Selection Committee.  While you may have screwed up seeding and matchups elsewhere, you got this one spot on.

Tip-off from the Frank Erwin Center in Austin, TX is scheduled for approximately 2:40 MT.  Coverage can be found on TNT, or on the web via March Madness Live.  For those stuck at work, Mark Johnson's radio call will be on AM 760, also available through iheart.com.

Click below for the preview...


When last we Danced -

The Buffs were gifted a short-drive to Albuquerque and a comfortable assignment, and they nearly turned it into a Sweet Sixteen run.

In the opening round match with UNLV, the Buffs rode the emotional wave from their four wins in Los Angeles to a monster 20-point lead with only 13 minutes to play.  Being the Tournament, UNLV wasn't about to just give up, however, and they used a frantic 14-0 run between the 7th and 8th media timeouts to make things interesting.  From there, it took eight free throws from CU to seal the 68-64 win, the program's first in the Dance since 1997.

A soaring Carlon Brown dunk kept the Rebels at arms length.

In the round of 32, Colorado faced a familiar foe: former Big XII rival Baylor.  The cheating scum who tried to weasel their way into the Pac-12 were out in full force, but it was the Buffs who looked poised to sneak into the Sweet Sixteen.  Despite massive asshole Brady Heslip (Scott the Dick) hitting 9-of-12 three point attempts, CU was staked to a 57-54 lead with 10-minutes to go when freshman Askia Booker hit a beautiful outside shot. Hope was alive.

Scott the Dick was red hot, but his teammates won the game down the stretch.

Unfortunately, the Bears would go on a 26-6 run down the stretch, mostly on the back of Pierre Jackson.  The final read 80-63, but it was far from indicative of how the game went.  Baylor fans still chanted 'Big XII rejects' in defiance of reality, and the Bears rose to #1 on every CU fans shit-list.

Fuck Baylor.  Fuck Scott the Dick.


Opponent's season so far -

Illinois started out the season red-hot, rolling to a 12-0 record that earned them a top-10 ranking in many polls.  That run included a three-game sweep in the high-profile Maui Invitational that garnered plenty of attention.  I'm not all that impressed by that Maui run, however.  While it can often be the nation's toughest November trip, the Illini only had to beat an average USC squad (then still under Kevin O'Neill's yoke), Division 2 Chaminade, and a good, not great, Butler team for the title.  Not exactly the stuff of legends.  The field was weak, and it showed over the course of the tournament.

The win in Maui was nice, but not all that impressive.

What was much more impressive was their December 8th win @Gonzaga.  The 'Zags, who have lost only one other game all season, were done in by a near-perfect performance from Illini guard Brandon Paul, who dropped 35 points, including 13 of the team's final 17.  Riding the hot hand can be both fun, and productive.

Conference play would come as a rude awakening, however, as Illinois would lose seven of their first nine Big 10 games.  That conference was brutal this year, but the stretch included losses to sub-.500 Purdue, an over-rated Minnesota squad, and a pathetic Northwestern team.  While the UofI would save some face with a 6-3 close to the regular season, the damage had been done, and the Illini were no longer seen as an elite team.  With a 8-10 record in Big 10 play, I actually feel that a 7-seed is a little high for them.

Their win over Indiana was about the only excitement to be found in conference play.

The UofI was 7th in both offensive and defensive efficiency in-conference, and, wouldn't you know it, they finished in a tie for 7th place.  They rely heavily on taking three-pointers in bunches and causing turnovers, but have a hard time in a straight-up fight.

Of all the teams placed in the Tournament, Illinois is 2nd in 3-point attempt percentage, taking over 41% of their shots from behind the arc (Iowa St is 1st with 43.9%).  Unlike a squad like say Florida or Air Force, who make upwards of 38% of their attempts, the Illini are more of a volume-shooting squad.  They only hit 32% of their outside bombs, good for 244th nationally, so feel free to call them streaky, and pray you don't catch them on a hot night.

Rise and fire.  Repeat.  From: the Trib

Defensively, they've been pretty solid as of late, forcing turnovers on nearly 21% of possessions in Big 10 play.  However, with a defensive free throw rate nearing 41% in-conference, you could rightly say they put teams on the line.  Spencer Dinwiddie should be able to take full advantage of this.

One of their most glaring weaknesses is on the glass, were they only grab 33.5 per game, good for 218th nationally.  What's more, they allow an abnormally high 33.8% offensive rebounding rate, affording opponents plenty of second chances.  If Josh Scott and Andre Roberson can't control the boards this afternoon, something has gone seriously wrong.

Essentially, this is not your typical, bruising Big 10 squad.  They're guard-oriented, leveraging a deep backcourt to live out on the perimeter, and they'd rather stay in the passing lanes to try and force a turnover than work for a bad shot and a rebound opportunity.  This is a team CU should at least feel comfortable playing against.


Coaching -

It's a new era in Champaign.  After leading the Illini to the NCAA championship game in 2005, coach Bruce Webber was only able to win two more Tournament games over seven seasons.  That's unacceptable for a program that fancies itself a basketball power, so Bruce was let go after last season. He would later resurface with K-State in Manhattan, KS.  (Feel free to debate the merits of the Little Apple as compared to Champaign-Urbana).

His replacement, John Groce, boasts some serious Tournament success, having only last year dragged mid-major underdogs Ohio U into the Sweet Sixteen.  He may not have been Illinois' first choice, but early reviews have been largely positive.  It certainly helps that his 12-0 start set a modern record in Champaign.

The lesson from the Webber era: win in the Tournament.

Coach Groce brought with him an open, aggressive style of play that has relied heavily on three-point shooting and guard play.  It served the Illini well in 2012, but has been less kind in 2013.  It'll be interesting, going forward, to see how he adapts it to the rough-and-tumble Big 10.


Star Players -

The single best player on the UofI roster is 6-4 senior guard Brandon Paul.  As he goes, so do the Illini, or, as Xavier Johnson put it this week "I know nothing about Illinois except that (Brandon) Paul gets buckets."  He's a do-it-all scorer, capable of exploding for multiple points on any given night.  Case-in-point, his 35 point performance against Gonzaga, and last season's 43-point monster against Ohio St.  He averages 17/4/3 per contest, much of that off getting to the line (5.6 fouls drawn per 40) and taking nearly seven 3-point attempts per game.

Paul is electric.

Much of the public focus on this game has been centered on how the Buffs will stop him (something Paul welcomes).  'Dre has apparently pulled the assignment, which I'm not entirely thrilled with.  Not that Roberson can't handle Paul, just that it will require him to spend more time out on the perimeter, and away from the basket where he earned his Pac-12 D-POY award.

As good as Paul has been for Illinois, it's actually been D.J. Richardson who has been their best scorer in Big 10 play.  The 6-3 senior guard from Peoria Central (powerhouse Illinois program) isn't the slasher that Paul can be, but he does hoist just as many 3-point attempts.  His 12/4 per compliments Paul nicely, and CU should try to keep him off the free throw line, where he hits over 83% of attempts.

Don't lose sight of Richardson, or he'll make you pay.

Rounding out the backcourt quartet are 6-1 sophomore Tracy Abrams and 6-6 junior Joseph Bertrand.  Abrams specializes in dishing out (24.8% assist rate) and ripping (3.0 steal percentage) the ball, but can still be counted on for double-figure points on most nights.  Bertrand is currently a nice complimentary piece that the team will rely on next year.

The final starter is bulky 6-11 sophomore forward Nnanna Egwu.  Of all the Illini, he's the only one in the heavy rotation that can cause damage in the paint, but even he shies away from the glass. He grabs less than five rebounds per game, which would be alright if there was anyone else on the team attacking the boards.   He does like to affect shots, however, as he brings in a very respectable 6.5% block rate.

Egwu is the Illini's only interior force.

Not starting, but definitely integral to the Illinois attack is senior forward Tyler Griffey.  The lanky 6-9 Missouri native may best be remembered for this shot to beat Indiana, but his versatility makes the Illini much more dangerous than they normally would be.  His 7/3 averages may not lift your skirt, but the UofI is 10-1 this year when he scores in double figures.  Not much of an interior force, he takes over 82% of his shots away from the basket.  If he knocks a few down, it could be the difference.

After Griffey, however, the bench sort of... just... ends.  They have another reserve forward, stout senior Sam McLaurin, but these guys just aren't very deep... just like the Buffs!


Prediction -

The Illini are more experienced, their coach, while in his first year at the school, is far from a Tournament neophyte, and even a lukewarm day from beyond the arc could make for an easy win the way CU sometimes struggles to guard the perimeter.  The Buffs, however, play their best against teams who are guard-focused, do a great job both getting to the line, and keeping their opponent off of it, and should enjoy a massive rebounding advantage (just look what that did for CSU last night...).  You could build a compelling case for either team. 

The game, then, is entirely dependent on whether the Illini are hitting from deep.  If they are, they're capable of beating any team in the country, and any discussion of a CU victory can end right now. 

If, however, the Buffs can contest, force bad shots, and leverage their rebounding advantage, then they should come out victorious.  And that's why 'Dre is on the perimeter.  Coach Boyle is more focused on using his roster's length advantage to contest those outside jumpers, hoping that the rebounds will fall to form, even if it isn't 'Dre grabbing them.  It's a gamble, and if Paul goes off, it could be a crippling one.

Because I'm forcing myself to pick, I'll say that Paul doesn't go off against the West's best defender, and that Illinois hits a pedestrian 33% from deep, leaving the door open for a CU win.  It'll be nerve-wracking, but the Buffs overcome poor free throw shooting to win a close one

CU 77 - UofI 74

GO BUFFS!  PROVE ME RIGHT, AND BEAT THE ILLINI!