The All-Time Pac-12 Team

The Pac-12.  The league of bright lights and no truck stops.  The only league that ever mattered.

I loved this league.  It was perfect in the most deeply flawed ways. Others, closer to coasts with more television sets and media execs, with schedules friendlier to those unwilling to stay up late, drew the headlines, but it was the Pac that came with the narratives.  I would compare the more successful conferences out east to a paint-by-numbers prime-time network drama with a nearly unlimited budget, and the Pac-12 to the web-only series run on a shoestring, but which told a much better story.  There were hubris-ridden coaches with outsized egos and outrageous personalities; heroes and villains could be found at every turn on the court, with many players eager to lean into the pantomime; the worst officiating in the country kept all the plates spinning, adding comedic value to every game; an entire program was built on the back of nepotism for the better part of a decade, and no one seemed to find that strange; every 'name' program loved to find ways to trip over themselves when competing for titles; hell, the FBI even showed up at one point for a Keystone Cops-eque cameo.  Night in, night out, the league delivered, even if it was just Bill Walton bellowing to no one about how close he's been to an active volcano.  At least we'll always have the 2021 Tournament...

With the 13th, and final, season of league play about to start next week, I thought it appropriate to give the Pac-12 a sendoff.  Herein, I'll name and honor those who warmed the gyms of the West, celebrating a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Team of all-time greats (10 each, presented in alphabetical order, with a coach).  Afterward, I'll dump my list, throwing out the remaining Honorable Mentions, before concluding with a team... less deserving of acclaim.  

Consider these the final Rumblin' Awards (as always, a strictly black-tie affair). 

I'm sure others will do this in the coming months.  However, my methodology will probably not mirror theirs - only years in the Pac-12 are considered, and I *mean* the Pac-12.  Anything prior to the 2011-2012 season doesn't count, and won't be considered (keep this in mind, particularly for all-time stat discussions and "years played" notations).  Further, I weigh longevity and consistency heavily.  A single, great season (like from, say, Deandre Ayton), without additional context, means less to me than a guy who bossed the league for multiple years.  This is about guys who *impacted* the league, and who spring to mind when I think back on the conference that was, not just the guys with the most talent.

Without further adieu, click below for the list...

An Attempt at Stage 3

In previous months, I told myself the death of the Pac-12 couldn't happen (Stage One).  Later, I raged against that death and (my perception of) its implications for the Colorado Men's Basketball program (Stage Two). I guess what's left now is to move on to Stage Three and start bargaining my way through this, so...

Last weekend, I stated that Colorado stepping into the 2024 iteration of the BigXII will be dead on arrival. But, is it? What if I'm dead wrong? What if the long-term prospects of the program lean more towards thriving, instead of suffocating? What exactly would that look like? What kind of effort would it take to survive and advance in this new reality?

To start, let's add some context about where the Buffs will slot into this new conference. Remember, it's not just about wins and losses that first season. My overall point in my previous article was regarding Colorado as a long-term prospect, rather than just how successful the individual 2024-25 squad will be. So, to better understand, I performed an extremely basic review of the final KenPom rankings for each of the 16 programs, over both the whole Tad Boyle era (now up to 13 seasons of results) and the last five campaigns. The hope here is to get a broader sense of the long-term strength of each of the programs. I'll grant that the underlying methodology is flawed, not least because we're talking about schools that are coming together from different conferences and with several layers of coaching dynamics (for example, the Huggins fiasco in Morgantown) that belie such a basic review of past success. However, it's what I've got, and at least gives us a way to start the discussion.

Off the top, Colorado doesn't fare too poorly -- 9th-best in recent years, 10th overall, and just below the top-half cut (FWIW, 4th and 5th, respectively, in the old Pac-12). As currently constituted, this level of consistent performance would be considered on the competitive fringe in a league where finishing 7th or 8th in a given year should still (most likely) guarantee you an invite into the NCAA Tournament. 

A quick glance also reveals some basic narratives about the power dynamics of this new-ish league.  Of course, Kansas, both on the hardwood and in the meeting rooms, will be the heavy hitter. But what quickly emerges is that there are only three programs -- KU, Baylor, and Arizona -- who have averaged a top-25 KP finish over the last 13 years. That is an indelible indicator of those programs' continued success over a long stretch, one that clearly sets them apart as the upper echelon of the league. But, and this may surprise some people, in recent years it has been Houston that has been the healthiest of all the programs, even beating out Kansas with an astonishing average of a 7th-place finish since 2019. Caveats for the weaker American Athletic Conference aside, the Cougars have been a monster, and deserve similar consideration to the other three declared powers. That leaves the BigXII with a clear top-four of perennial powers; those expected to succeed, who have entrenched fan bases and donor structures to support continued growth (and exploitation of NIL opportunities), and who should be expected to continue to enjoy similar success for years to come. Regardless of how the next few years go, I would expect those four programs to lead the league's narrative, barring something really weird... or some litigation. 

Extreme optimism aside, I think it would be hard to foresee a set of circumstances that would have Colorado finding a way into that top tier. So, what would a reasonable target be?  Well, it's not too far off. As noted, a top-half finish, year-in year-out, would probably be enough for the Dance. More to the point, just like in the Pac-12, routinely finishing in the top half of the league, maybe even snagging a top-four finish every four-ish years, gives you a base to build on. That would allow the program to maintain its current competitive, prideful status, and continue to justify wider fanbase interest. Say, top-50 in KenPom, which is, more or less, where CU has been in recent years. If Colorado can keep to that floor, they should consistently finish in the top-8 of the league.

The impediment here is obvious: the conference's depth. As I found in the experiment discussed above, an average BigXII team, over the last five years, was 30 slots better than an average Pac-12 team. In the former Conference of Champions, we had come to count on programs like WSU, Ore St, and Cal fielding teams that were simply not competitive. Schools you could, year after year, hope to beat both in Boulder and on the road.  In the BigXII, there are few such cupcakes, and everyone has ambition. Texas Tech, WVU, KSU, ISU, TCU, and BYU have each finished inside the KenPom top-25 at least once within the last five years -- hell, I only left Tech off the power list 'cause I'm not 100% sold that the transition from the Chris Beard era is on solid footing, but they were an overtime away from a national title in 2019. Tweeners Ok St and Cincinnati may not have been quite at that level in recent years, but they've been consistent enough to pay attention to and will project to be tough outs in league play. Even the "lower-rung" programs have the potential to be strong. We already know how annoying ASU and Utah can be, and I would expect them to try and splash some cash to find traction. That just leaves little thought of UCF -- at the very least, that 3.5 hour plane flight will be a giant pain in the ass.  Regardless of how you look at it, it'll be hard to bank wins against this group, year-in, year-out. 

So, what does Colorado need to do to maintain their place amongst this viper's nest, stay with the Texas Techs and West Virginias of the league, and forestall my earlier predictions of doom and a slide into the basement with ASU and Utah?  Well, it comes down to the basics: coaching, recruiting, and resources. 

First, coaching. It should come as no surprise, as rumors have been swirling, but many insiders have indicated that the Tad Boyle era could be coming to a close in the next few years, with the winningest coach in program history looking to retire. To be fair, the man has earned the rest, but, the transition to 'what comes next' will be critical.  

I referenced the quality of the 'job' in my previous article; that the national perception of Colorado as a potential coaching landing place, compared to its peers, places the Buffs solidly in the lower quarter of the league. To that end, even with what Tad has built in Boulder, I have doubts about how truly attractive this spot would be to a coach outside the immediate area. The quality and depth of in-state recruiting are still... *ahem* inconsistent, and resources afforded by the Athletic Department will always be a problem (I saw them on commercial flights last year, don't pretend). However, coaches will want to be in this newly evolved league; stay in this league. The combination of the desirability of coaching in the #1 basketball conference in the country and the ability to build on what Tad has constructed should be enough to overcome the ingrained challenges and still attract some quality candidates. It'll probably cost, though; the Athletic Department needs to plan on significant investment into the next staff if they want the program to stay competitive.

Now, I'm not going to start tossing out names (not even the one in Rhode Island), 'cause that wouldn't be fair and this industry changes quickly, but the candidates will most likely fall into three categories:

• Ones with institutional ties that can make for an "easy" transition.
• A few young up-and-comer types from a mid-major with a recent Tournament run.
• Veteran/Power Conference 'name' candidates that will garner national headlines.

I'm not really ready to make an argument one way or the other, but, for Colorado to survive in the BigXII, long-term, the final choice has to work. A miss-step here would be fatal, but that's not an argument to go with what is 'safe' (look at where that got Cal).  CU will need to splash some cash, bring in a coach ready to roll, and support them.

Because, of course, what happens with the coaching search will flow directly into recruiting. Tad and Co. have seen some major gains on this front in recent years, averaging a top-40 class in the last four cycles, including two in the top-25 (according to 247).  CU will need to maintain this pace, if not improve, to be a top-half player in the BigXII.  Basketball recruiting is weird, with transfers and international signees often being more important than incoming freshmen, so YoY swings don't necessarily mean as much as they would in, say, football. But, the overall picture needs to remain strong, which leads me to my final point...

Resources. Colorado needs to renew its investment in the program. Whether it be the hiring of a new coaching staff when Tad retires, increasing the in-season Operations budget to compete with their new peers (like, ensuring 100% chartered flights), encouraging and leveraging NIL opportunities, or supporting the program with new capital investments and upgraded facilities, the Athletic Department and the donor base will need to step up to the challenge. No excuses.

I always tend to look for inefficiencies. I'm particularly focused on ways the program can get better at leveraging NIL opportunities to maintain its recent recruiting success. Small things like including guaranteed NIL fund contributions in MLE tournament contracts are a nice start, but more needs to be done. I've been assured that Tad has grown more open to the prospects in this sphere, and that the program as a whole is beginning to take this aspect seriously, with major contributions to the B4L fund starting to trickle in, but this needs to be a priority in the years to come.

We also need to talk about facilities. Specifically, the practice facility is almost as old as the Tad Boyle era itself. That capital investment was supplemented in the intervening years with additional upgrades to the locker, sports medicine, and meeting rooms -- all very well done, btw -- but it's time for another push for significant upgrades. I understand the costly gamble being undertaken over at Folsom, and the strain that puts on the overall bottom line, but basketball facility upgrades have never come with the exhaustive price tags of their gridiron counterparts. Honestly, I'd start by looking at the arena itself.  Not a *new* arena, just upgrades. The floor was recently replaced, and the CUEC is already far better than it was in 2010, but more can be done to make it a place that players want to play in. If we're serious about competing in the BigXII, we'll need to *look* like we're serious.

At least we know that Colorado should be able to hit the ground running -- the Buffs are returning to the BigXII with a higher talent floor, better facilities, and greater stability than when they left. If I had to place a bet now, I would put it on at least the first season going well, with Colorado finishing in that coveted top-half grouping.  Where it goes from there will come down to the care and investment in continuing to grow the Colorado Basketball brand.  

If, and I mean if, Colorado can nail all three aspects -- the coaching change, staying strong in recruiting, and increasing resources into the program -- there is an opportunity here to stake a claim in the strongest basketball conference in the land. All of the non-Kansas programs will be scrambling for relevancy and have their own institutional burdens to try and work around. If CU can forge a consistent spot in the top half in that scramble, it could lead to a permanent paradigm shift in the quality of the program. Keep up the pace for the first five years or so, and you're in. There's still all to play for.

--

That's Stage Three dispatched.  I'll keep Stage Four between me and my bartender.  Once Stage Five hits, I'll let you know if anything publishable comes from it.

To the Death of Fun

So. Back to the Big XII. 

You may be taken aback -- Isn't moving to the BigXII a good thing?  Isn't jumping off the plummeting Pac-12 jet a good thing?  Why am I so butt-hurt about this? 

I look at it in two separate calculations. First, bailing on the Pac-12. I could talk about path to the College Football Playoff and the future potential of streaming over linear, but I'm not here to re-litigate that. The financials are undeniable, and the writing was on the wall. However, I would dispute that CU's situation would've dramatically changed having actually *waited* to see the final media rights proposal from Pac-12 Commissioner George Kliavkoff. Then, Colorado could've acted in concert with additional members of the current Pac-12, potentially leveraging bargaining power and building some options beyond, "Well, let's just go on back to our Ex."  Ultimately, Colorado held a lot of good cards in this situation; in my opinion, they just rushed to play them favoring a sure thing over the best long-term result. We threw away our conference loyalty 12 years ago, why not just do it again?

Second, why am I so damn disgusted by the prospect of heading back to the old stomping grounds? 'Cause the BigXII is what was. This move is, by definition, a step backward in history, prestige, and, in a number of ways, the level of competition (except on the men's hardwood... more on that in a second).  It takes us away from our largest out-of-state Alumni base and probably dooms us to a 2nd-tier football league in an era where only the 1st-tier will matter.  

What's more, we're heading back to a league where we will be, just as we were in the Pac-12, rival-less and set off to the side. This isn't the BigXII of 2010. No Nebraska, no Oklahoma, no Mizzou, no Texas, and no A&M. Now that the dust has settled, the resulting conference with BYU/Utah, 'Zona/ASU, KU/KSU, Cincy/WVU, and four Texas schools, who have their own thing going, leaves the remaining four randos (Colorado included) twiddling their thumbs. If you didn't like it in the Pac-12, why would a forced rivalry with, I don't know, Ok State (?) suddenly get your fancy?

But, what *really* gets my goat is the situation with the men's basketball program.  Everything Tad has built -- all the good, competitive vibes constructed over the last decade-plus -- is about to wither and die on the vine.

In case you have no idea, the BigXII, for some time, has been the deepest basketball conference in the country. It is, by leaps and bounds, stronger than the version Colorado left in 2011. Up through last season, 9 of the 10 programs could boast a deep and rich basketball tradition, Baylor and Kansas had claimed frickin' national titles in recent years, and the league had finished 1st or 2nd in KenPom each of the last 10 seasons (Over that same span, the Pac-12 averaged a 5th-place finish, sometimes finishing behind mid-major leagues). Even taking Oklahoma and Texas out of the equation, the league is replacing them with Houston (a historic regional basketball power) and Cincinnati (same).  Sure, UCF is more-or-less a dud, but BYU has been a nasty mid-major with a high upside for decades and will fit in well. Add Arizona and Utah to that mix, and this is the basketball conference of basketball conferences. A goddamn monster. Even with UCLA and USC joining the B1G, the new BigXII would stand apart, in my opinion.

Colorado, stepping into that viper's nest, is D.O.A.

Looking back on 2010-11, the combination of a good new coach and a solid veteran core helped propel Colorado on a relatively successful final BigXII campaign. From there, the Pac-12's lack of true basketball depth helped Colorado surge over the past decade, forging solid footing to become a competitive program that could hold its head high amongst rivals. Reliably upper-middle of the pack, capable of punching above their weight and making the postseason almost every year. While maybe not a 'power,' it was a program worth following for the broader fanbase. Often entertaining, it boasted good players of high character, engaged in narrative-rich fights with rival programs, and occasionally blipped onto the national spotlight. 

That level of consistent relevancy is something that hadn't been achieved over Colorado's previous four decades of play in the old Big 8/BigXII. In this newly re-designed BigXII, it'll only be worse. The second the paperwork was signed, CU immediately became the 10th-best job (depending on your view of BYU and TCU) in the conference, really only clearly more desirable than UCF.  Arizona and Utah joining the league would drop that rating down further. 12th or 13th in a 16-team jumble. Irrelevant.

Yes, I know Tad has had some nice and optimistic things to say. The KU grad may even be able to bottle up some 2010-11 magic and score some knockouts against the midwestern behemoths in his final years. Sure, maybe we'll find a way to shock the world and finish 8th for a few years, or something.  Maybe beat Arizona at home, like we've been doing.

But then, Tad will retire. Then, an Athletic Department which has never really cared about the program will be tasked with finding and supporting a replacement. Very quickly, and I mean *quickly*, this program will return to what it once was: a dusty doormat in a league where everyone else takes the sport seriously.  The funding dries up, the facilities fade, and the recruits go elsewhere. Endgame.

Now, I am a basketball fan. More than that, I am a Colorado Basketball fan. This matters to me, even if it doesn't to you. This informs my decision-making, the same as the football part may inform yours.  The death of Colorado Basketball as a competitive concern is a mortal strike against my soul.

That is why I'm pissed about this bullshit. Pissed at Mike Bohn and USC. Pissed at UCLA for going along with it. Pissed at FOX and the B1G for orchestrating it. Pissed at Colorado for jumping at the "opportunity." Pissed at everyone for smiling and patting each other on the back for turning a plate of bird shit into a plate of dog shit.

You may not care, but I'll still be there, with a handful of diehards, watching the program I love be put to the torch by Kansas, Baylor, and Arizona. And what we enjoyed over the last decade-plus will be resigned to a forgotten footnote while everyone panics over who the next football coach will be -- as it ever was.

Damn this all.