In previous months, I told myself the death of the Pac-12 couldn't happen (Stage One). Later, I raged against that death and (my perception of) its implications for the Colorado Men's Basketball program (Stage Two). I guess what's left now is to move on to Stage Three and start bargaining my way through this, so...
Last weekend, I stated that Colorado stepping into the 2024 iteration of the BigXII will be dead on arrival. But, is it? What if I'm dead wrong? What if the long-term prospects of the program lean more towards thriving, instead of suffocating? What exactly would that look like? What kind of effort would it take to survive and advance in this new reality?
To start, let's add some context about where the Buffs will slot into this new conference. Remember, it's not just about wins and losses that first season. My overall point in my previous article was regarding Colorado as a long-term prospect, rather than just how successful the individual 2024-25 squad will be. So, to better understand, I performed an extremely basic review of the final KenPom rankings for each of the 16 programs, over both the whole Tad Boyle era (now up to 13 seasons of results) and the last five campaigns. The hope here is to get a broader sense of the long-term strength of each of the programs. I'll grant that the underlying methodology is flawed, not least because we're talking about schools that are coming together from different conferences and with several layers of coaching dynamics (for example, the Huggins fiasco in Morgantown) that belie such a basic review of past success. However, it's what I've got, and at least gives us a way to start the discussion.
Off the top, Colorado doesn't fare too poorly -- 9th-best in recent years, 10th overall, and just below the top-half cut (FWIW, 4th and 5th, respectively, in the old Pac-12). As currently constituted, this level of consistent performance would be considered on the competitive fringe in a league where finishing 7th or 8th in a given year should still (most likely) guarantee you an invite into the NCAA Tournament.
A quick glance also reveals some basic narratives about the power dynamics of this new-ish league. Of course, Kansas, both on the hardwood and in the meeting rooms, will be the heavy hitter. But what quickly emerges is that there are only three programs -- KU, Baylor, and Arizona -- who have averaged a top-25 KP finish over the last 13 years. That is an indelible indicator of those programs' continued success over a long stretch, one that clearly sets them apart as the upper echelon of the league. But, and this may surprise some people, in recent years it has been Houston that has been the healthiest of all the programs, even beating out Kansas with an astonishing average of a 7th-place finish since 2019. Caveats for the weaker American Athletic Conference aside, the Cougars have been a monster, and deserve similar consideration to the other three declared powers. That leaves the BigXII with a clear top-four of perennial powers; those expected to succeed, who have entrenched fan bases and donor structures to support continued growth (and exploitation of NIL opportunities), and who should be expected to continue to enjoy similar success for years to come. Regardless of how the next few years go, I would expect those four programs to lead the league's narrative, barring something really weird... or some litigation.
Extreme optimism aside, I think it would be hard to foresee a set of circumstances that would have Colorado finding a way into that top tier. So, what would a reasonable target be? Well, it's not too far off. As noted, a top-half finish, year-in year-out, would probably be enough for the Dance. More to the point, just like in the Pac-12, routinely finishing in the top half of the league, maybe even snagging a top-four finish every four-ish years, gives you a base to build on. That would allow the program to maintain its current competitive, prideful status, and continue to justify wider fanbase interest. Say, top-50 in KenPom, which is, more or less, where CU has been in recent years. If Colorado can keep to that floor, they should consistently finish in the top-8 of the league.
The impediment here is obvious: the conference's depth. As I found in the experiment discussed above, an average BigXII team, over the last five years, was 30 slots better than an average Pac-12 team. In the former Conference of Champions, we had come to count on programs like WSU, Ore St, and Cal fielding teams that were simply not competitive. Schools you could, year after year, hope to beat both in Boulder and on the road. In the BigXII, there are few such cupcakes, and everyone has ambition. Texas Tech, WVU, KSU, ISU, TCU, and BYU have each finished inside the KenPom top-25 at least once within the last five years -- hell, I only left Tech off the power list 'cause I'm not 100% sold that the transition from the Chris Beard era is on solid footing, but they were an overtime away from a national title in 2019. Tweeners Ok St and Cincinnati may not have been quite at that level in recent years, but they've been consistent enough to pay attention to and will project to be tough outs in league play. Even the "lower-rung" programs have the potential to be strong. We already know how annoying ASU and Utah can be, and I would expect them to try and splash some cash to find traction. That just leaves little thought of UCF -- at the very least, that 3.5 hour plane flight will be a giant pain in the ass. Regardless of how you look at it, it'll be hard to bank wins against this group, year-in, year-out.
So, what does Colorado need to do to maintain their place amongst this viper's nest, stay with the Texas Techs and West Virginias of the league, and forestall my earlier predictions of doom and a slide into the basement with ASU and Utah? Well, it comes down to the basics: coaching, recruiting, and resources.
First, coaching. It should come as no surprise, as rumors have been swirling, but many insiders have indicated that the Tad Boyle era could be coming to a close in the next few years, with the winningest coach in program history looking to retire. To be fair, the man has earned the rest, but, the transition to 'what comes next' will be critical.
I referenced the quality of the 'job' in my previous article; that the national perception of Colorado as a potential coaching landing place, compared to its peers, places the Buffs solidly in the lower quarter of the league. To that end, even with what Tad has built in Boulder, I have doubts about how truly attractive this spot would be to a coach outside the immediate area. The quality and depth of in-state recruiting are still... *ahem* inconsistent, and resources afforded by the Athletic Department will always be a problem (I saw them on commercial flights last year, don't pretend). However, coaches will want to be in this newly evolved league; stay in this league. The combination of the desirability of coaching in the #1 basketball conference in the country and the ability to build on what Tad has constructed should be enough to overcome the ingrained challenges and still attract some quality candidates. It'll probably cost, though; the Athletic Department needs to plan on significant investment into the next staff if they want the program to stay competitive.
Now, I'm not going to start tossing out names (not even the one in Rhode Island), 'cause that wouldn't be fair and this industry changes quickly, but the candidates will most likely fall into three categories:
- Ones with institutional ties that can make for an "easy" transition.
- A few young up-and-comer types from a mid-major with a recent Tournament run.
- Veteran/Power Conference 'name' candidates that will garner national headlines.
I'm not really ready to make an argument one way or the other, but, for Colorado to survive in the BigXII, long-term, the final choice has to work. A miss-step here would be fatal, but that's not an argument to go with what is 'safe' (look at where that got Cal). CU will need to splash some cash, bring in a coach ready to roll, and support them.
Because, of course, what happens with the coaching search will flow directly into recruiting. Tad and Co. have seen some major gains on this front in recent years, averaging a top-40 class in the last four cycles, including two in the top-25 (according to 247). CU will need to maintain this pace, if not improve, to be a top-half player in the BigXII. Basketball recruiting is weird, with transfers and international signees often being more important than incoming freshmen, so YoY swings don't necessarily mean as much as they would in, say, football. But, the overall picture needs to remain strong, which leads me to my final point...
Resources. Colorado needs to renew its investment in the program. Whether it be the hiring of a new coaching staff when Tad retires, increasing the in-season Operations budget to compete with their new peers (like, ensuring 100% chartered flights), encouraging and leveraging NIL opportunities, or supporting the program with new capital investments and upgraded facilities, the Athletic Department and the donor base will need to step up to the challenge. No excuses.
I always tend to look for inefficiencies. I'm particularly focused on ways the program can get better at leveraging NIL opportunities to maintain its recent recruiting success. Small things like including guaranteed NIL fund contributions in MLE tournament contracts are a nice start, but more needs to be done. I've been assured that Tad has grown more open to the prospects in this sphere, and that the program as a whole is beginning to take this aspect seriously, with major contributions to the B4L fund starting to trickle in, but this needs to be a priority in the years to come.
We also need to talk about facilities. Specifically, the practice facility is almost as old as the Tad Boyle era itself. That capital investment was supplemented in the intervening years with additional upgrades to the locker, sports medicine, and meeting rooms -- all very well done, btw -- but it's time for another push for significant upgrades. I understand the costly gamble being undertaken over at Folsom, and the strain that puts on the overall bottom line, but basketball facility upgrades have never come with the exhaustive price tags of their gridiron counterparts. Honestly, I'd start by looking at the arena itself. Not a *new* arena, just upgrades. The floor was recently replaced, and the CUEC is already far better than it was in 2010, but more can be done to make it a place that players want to play in. If we're serious about competing in the BigXII, we'll need to *look* like we're serious.
At least we know that Colorado should be able to hit the ground running -- the Buffs are returning to the BigXII with a higher talent floor, better facilities, and greater stability than when they left. If I had to place a bet now, I would put it on at least the first season going well, with Colorado finishing in that coveted top-half grouping. Where it goes from there will come down to the care and investment in continuing to grow the Colorado Basketball brand.
If, and I mean if, Colorado can nail all three aspects -- the coaching change, staying strong in recruiting, and increasing resources into the program -- there is an opportunity here to stake a claim in the strongest basketball conference in the land. All of the non-Kansas programs will be scrambling for relevancy and have their own institutional burdens to try and work around. If CU can forge a consistent spot in the top half in that scramble, it could lead to a permanent paradigm shift in the quality of the program. Keep up the pace for the first five years or so, and you're in. There's still all to play for.
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That's Stage Three dispatched. I'll keep Stage Four between me and my bartender. Once Stage Five hits, I'll let you know if anything publishable comes from it.
1 comment:
Great read!
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