You may be taken aback -- Isn't moving to the BigXII a good thing? Isn't jumping off the plummeting Pac-12 jet a good thing? Why am I so butt-hurt about this?
I look at it in two separate calculations. First, bailing on the Pac-12. I could talk about path to the College Football Playoff and the future potential of streaming over linear, but I'm not here to re-litigate that. The financials are undeniable, and the writing was on the wall. However, I would dispute that CU's situation would've dramatically changed having actually *waited* to see the final media rights proposal from Pac-12 Commissioner George Kliavkoff. Then, Colorado could've acted in concert with additional members of the current Pac-12, potentially leveraging bargaining power and building some options beyond, "Well, let's just go on back to our Ex." Ultimately, Colorado held a lot of good cards in this situation; in my opinion, they just rushed to play them favoring a sure thing over the best long-term result. We threw away our conference loyalty 12 years ago, why not just do it again?
Second, why am I so damn disgusted by the prospect of heading back to the old stomping grounds? 'Cause the BigXII is what was. This move is, by definition, a step backward in history, prestige, and, in a number of ways, the level of competition (except on the men's hardwood... more on that in a second). It takes us away from our largest out-of-state Alumni base and probably dooms us to a 2nd-tier football league in an era where only the 1st-tier will matter.
What's more, we're heading back to a league where we will be, just as we were in the Pac-12, rival-less and set off to the side. This isn't the BigXII of 2010. No Nebraska, no Oklahoma, no Mizzou, no Texas, and no A&M. Now that the dust has settled, the resulting conference with BYU/Utah, 'Zona/ASU, KU/KSU, Cincy/WVU, and four Texas schools, who have their own thing going, leaves the remaining four randos (Colorado included) twiddling their thumbs. If you didn't like it in the Pac-12, why would a forced rivalry with, I don't know, Ok State (?) suddenly get your fancy?
But, what *really* gets my goat is the situation with the men's basketball program. Everything Tad has built -- all the good, competitive vibes constructed over the last decade-plus -- is about to wither and die on the vine.
In case you have no idea, the BigXII, for some time, has been the deepest basketball conference in the country. It is, by leaps and bounds, stronger than the version Colorado left in 2011. Up through last season, 9 of the 10 programs could boast a deep and rich basketball tradition, Baylor and Kansas had claimed frickin' national titles in recent years, and the league had finished 1st or 2nd in KenPom each of the last 10 seasons (Over that same span, the Pac-12 averaged a 5th-place finish, sometimes finishing behind mid-major leagues). Even taking Oklahoma and Texas out of the equation, the league is replacing them with Houston (a historic regional basketball power) and Cincinnati (same). Sure, UCF is more-or-less a dud, but BYU has been a nasty mid-major with a high upside for decades and will fit in well. Add Arizona and Utah to that mix, and this is the basketball conference of basketball conferences. A goddamn monster. Even with UCLA and USC joining the B1G, the new BigXII would stand apart, in my opinion.
Colorado, stepping into that viper's nest, is D.O.A.
Looking back on 2010-11, the combination of a good new coach and a solid veteran core helped propel Colorado on a relatively successful final BigXII campaign. From there, the Pac-12's lack of true basketball depth helped Colorado surge over the past decade, forging solid footing to become a competitive program that could hold its head high amongst rivals. Reliably upper-middle of the pack, capable of punching above their weight and making the postseason almost every year. While maybe not a 'power,' it was a program worth following for the broader fanbase. Often entertaining, it boasted good players of high character, engaged in narrative-rich fights with rival programs, and occasionally blipped onto the national spotlight.
That level of consistent relevancy is something that hadn't been achieved over Colorado's previous four decades of play in the old Big 8/BigXII. In this newly re-designed BigXII, it'll only be worse. The second the paperwork was signed, CU immediately became the 10th-best job (depending on your view of BYU and TCU) in the conference, really only clearly more desirable than UCF. Arizona and Utah joining the league would drop that rating down further. 12th or 13th in a 16-team jumble. Irrelevant.
Yes, I know Tad has had some nice and optimistic things to say. The KU grad may even be able to bottle up some 2010-11 magic and score some knockouts against the midwestern behemoths in his final years. Sure, maybe we'll find a way to shock the world and finish 8th for a few years, or something. Maybe beat Arizona at home, like we've been doing.
But then, Tad will retire. Then, an Athletic Department which has never really cared about the program will be tasked with finding and supporting a replacement. Very quickly, and I mean *quickly*, this program will return to what it once was: a dusty doormat in a league where everyone else takes the sport seriously. The funding dries up, the facilities fade, and the recruits go elsewhere. Endgame.
Now, I am a basketball fan. More than that, I am a Colorado Basketball fan. This matters to me, even if it doesn't to you. This informs my decision-making, the same as the football part may inform yours. The death of Colorado Basketball as a competitive concern is a mortal strike against my soul.
That is why I'm pissed about this bullshit. Pissed at Mike Bohn and USC. Pissed at UCLA for going along with it. Pissed at FOX and the B1G for orchestrating it. Pissed at Colorado for jumping at the "opportunity." Pissed at everyone for smiling and patting each other on the back for turning a plate of bird shit into a plate of dog shit.
You may not care, but I'll still be there, with a handful of diehards, watching the program I love be put to the torch by Kansas, Baylor, and Arizona. And what we enjoyed over the last decade-plus will be resigned to a forgotten footnote while everyone panics over who the next football coach will be -- as it ever was.
Damn this all.
2 comments:
Hi Ben,
I enjoyed your thoughts. Well, "enjoyed" may not be the right word, as it is very pessimistic, but you get the idea. I love CU hoops as well, and I think your take might be overly pessimistic. In the short term, it seems to me that this move will actually make it slightly easier for CU to make the tournament. The bottom of the Big 12 is stronger, so the Buffs will no longer be playing road games that can only hurt them (@Cal, @Oregon St). They will lose those drags on their NET, and thus may be able to trade home-and-homes against high-level mid-majors (think San Diego, Wyoming, and New Mexico from recent years) for more home games against low majors while keeping a similar NET. This would seem to help them, as they will be playing fewer no-win games, if that makes sense. The flip side is that a 20-13 NIT team in the Pac 12 is a 16-17 team in the Big 12. But do enough people care about the NIT to make that a relevant consideration? I agree with you that if they can't hire a good replacement for Tad when he retires, they're screwed. However, that would have been the case regardless. Teams with poor coaches and apathetic athletic departments can bottom out in the Pac 12 just as hard as in the Big 12- just look at Cal.
I appreciate you reading!
The NET thing is an interesting discussion, and I certainly see the upside. My analysis essentially boils down to this: those games are only valuable if you can win them. My focus with this piece is long term -- short term, 2024-25 will be a big opportunity for the final expression of the Tad era.
The road thing is the biiiig problem here, long term. Even as improved as the program has been over the last decade, there have only been about 2 or 3 seasons where CU has been capable of consistently claiming those kinds of Q1 wins away from home. That's also a problem in that you can bank on fewer home wins.
One thing that I didn't discuss was that our recruiting improved in the early 2010s simply because we were playing in CA more. Players like Ski and Spencer specifically noted that they considered CU in large part because the team was in the P12. Tad has said, more or less, "OK, now I'll recruit Texas." Fair enough, but I wonder if we can make the same traction. At least the Arizonas are coming along, as we had experienced a lot of success in that state recently.
Your point on scheduling makes sense but is a downer. First, you're telling me that, as fans, I can only hope to see Q3 or 4 games prior to January. That's bad for attendance, and that's bad for building a brand -- two things that consistently held the program back in the 'before times.' We're struggling to schedule Q1 or Q2 non-cons anyway, at this point, so it's probably moot.
I guess my overall point was that, in the P12, I saw a way to transition into a soft landing after the Tad era. I just don't see that possibility in the BXII, and, given (my perspective) that the AD doesn't have the will to make a point of sustaining the program, that will lead to a death spiral.
I hope I'm wrong. I'm often wrong. We'll see.
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