CU was just too much for UW inside. |
The goings on up front made up for a lackluster game from Askia Booker. The sparkplug struggled to fire against the Washington zone for the second time this season, finishing 2-10 from the floor with only five points. With his dribble-drive cut off, he was reduced to being a simple jump shooter, and he just couldn't find a rhythm. Luckily, Xavier Talton was hitting, collecting 10 points on 2-4 shooting from three, or CU wouldn't have gotten much from their guards.
The defense swarmed from the outset. |
--
Attention now turns to Washington State and the regular season finale. At this point, you may be asking: 'So, just what, exactly, is at stake this afternoon?' Well, the murky middle is as muddled as always in the Pac-12, with plenty still to be decided on the regular season's final day. For CU, they can finish anywhere from 8th to 10th.
Here's the standings as of this morning:
- #5 - Stanford - 9-8 - @ Arizona
- #6 - ASU - 8-9 - vs Cal
- #7 - OSU - 8-10 - No more games
- #8 - Cal - 7-10 - @ ASU
- #9 - CU - 7-10 - @ WSU
- #10 - WSU - 6-11 - vs CU
Helpfully, Cal and Arizona State play their game before
CU's, so we'll know the nitty-gritty by tip-off in Pullman. Assuming
Stanford loses in Tucson, the Sun Devils are playing for 5th, as they
would win any tie-breaker with the Cardinal. A loss by the Devils,
however, would make things significantly more interesting, with a
four-way tie possible.
Given a
three-way-tie with Cal and Oregon State, the Bears jump up to 6th,
(thanks to a 2-1 record against the others), ASU 7th (their win over
Arizona), and OSU 8th. Should ASU lose, and CU beats Washington
State this evening, then we have that damn four-way tie at 8-10. Cal
still has the advantage here, but OSU would jump up to 7th (their win
over the Buffs helps), ASU 8th, and CU 9th.
If ASU avoids that mess by beating Cal and Colorado wins in Pullman, then Buffs finish in 8th (highest possible), as they would lose the direct tiebreaker with the Beavers. Should CU lose today, they'd slip to 10th, as they'd lose a direct tie-breaker with the Cougars - based on their win over Oregon in the most batshit insane game ever played, - and a potential multi-team tie-breaker with Cal and WSU.
If ASU avoids that mess by beating Cal and Colorado wins in Pullman, then Buffs finish in 8th (highest possible), as they would lose the direct tiebreaker with the Beavers. Should CU lose today, they'd slip to 10th, as they'd lose a direct tie-breaker with the Cougars - based on their win over Oregon in the most batshit insane game ever played, - and a potential multi-team tie-breaker with Cal and WSU.
Got
all that? Good, because tip off from Beasley Coliseum is set for 4:30pm
this afternoon. Televised coverage can be found on Pac-12 Networks,
with the radio call on 850 KOA.
For reference, my preview from the first game can be found here.
Click below for the preview...
When last we met -
I'll admit, I completely misread this one. I thought the Cougars would be able to run and gun enough to stay win the Buffs over 40 minutes, but, in reality, they couldn't even make it five. The CU offense - which had been struggling mightily, and was still without stars Josh Scott and Xavier Johnson - took full advantage of the leaky WSU rim defense, roaring out to their best overall performance of conference play. Busting a four-game losing streak, the Buffs won in blowout fashion, 90-58.
The Cougars had no answer for the Buffs' offense. From: the BDC |
The best performances, however, were the ones put in by Wes Gordon and Jaron Hopkins. Wes finished up on a great homestand by chipping in 10/14/5/4/2. (Just typing that line out makes me giggle.) He paired particularly well with freshman center Tory Miller (10/7 by himself), helping the team own the paint. Hopkins, who put together a string of solid-to-great performances in January, went for 13/6/4, hitting all but one of the five shots he took (making all three from behind the arc). The 'Game Shooter' was alive and well.
Wes Gordon just keeps getting better and better. From: the BDC |
I guess it's best to take away the following: it's easy to score against terrible defenses. If you come to Boulder unwilling to put in the effort to make Colorado work for their points, you're asking to get burned. I still say that Washington State is a decent basketball club, certainly far better than they were a year ago. It's just, allowed to find their rhythm, CU will never lose in the CEC. You have to make these guys think, make them put in effort on offense. If you give them easy looks, open drives to the basket, and freed passing lanes, you're only asking for trouble. That's exactly what WSU did in January, and they got thrown back down the mountain with a 32-point loss for their troubles. What we find out today: how that translates at sea level.
The Cougars since then -
Prior to the game in Boulder, the Cougars had been 3-3 in Pac-12 play. Including that beatdown against the Buffs, they've been 3-9 since, failing to live up to much of the promise shown in their 3-1 start. The problem has been, and will continue to be, defense. They're dead last in the league in defensive efficiency (adj 1.14 ppp), and allow over 77 points per contest. To steal a phrase used for UW by the Seattle Times' Bud Withers, they've built an autobahn to the rim for their opponents, one which CU was more than happy to use back in January.
Defense matters, dude. |
Wazzou will scrap with you, believe that |
Why things could be different -
It all comes down to DaVonte Lacy. Washington State's all-time three point shooting king struggled in Boulder, and is certainly capable of much more. His 4-13 shooting performance from the first meeting (1-5 from deep) was his third-lowest floor percentage of conference play, and a repeat should not be expected.
Lacy, a definitive talent, will have a say in the return result |
Prediction -
(My record on the season: 11-8. Against the spread: 11-8. Optimistic/pessimistic: CU -2.05 pt/gm)
Lines as of Friday @ 8pm - CU -3.5, O/U 141.5
CU has rarely proven to be successful running outside of Boulder. The results are usually ugly (see: the Oregon game), and the team just doesn't look comfortable. Up at altitude, the team likes to trap and take advantage with quick counters. I just don't see that strategy employed as often or as effectively where oxygen is more plentiful. That trend will be put to the test tonight, however.
Washington State loves to play fast, and it will be easy for this game to slip into a track meet. It'll be interesting to see how Coach Boyle takes to that whiff of octane. The Cougars absolutely can't defend, so more opportunities against their defense is usually a good thing, but #TadBall is not meant to be played to 70 possessions.
Assuming the Buffs don't get too loose, I like their ability to close out the year with a win. They counter WSU's great strength (getting to the line), and have proven to be capable of scoring against teams who can't defend. It could get wild, but I'll take the Buffs to win.
CU 70 - WSU 65
GO BUFFS! PROVE ME RIGHT, AND BEAT THE COUGARS!
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