Tuesday Grab Bag: Riding that #TadBall wave

So, given the current run of positive play emanating from the Colorado Men's Basketball Program, can we reasonably begin to plot extraordinary paths for the team, once lost adrift a sea of losing, to somehow chart their way into the NCAA Tournament?

Simply, no.

I don't mean to undercut the happier vibes of late, but the possibility seems to be popping up every now and then among BuffNation, and I feel it needs to be addressed.  Currently, the Buffs boast a RPI ranking in the low 100s -- depending on where you look, it's usually 107th in the country.  That is a terrible place to be entering middle February, essentially disqualifying in its own right.  Add to it the fact that CU currently has more losses to RPI 100+ teams than they have wins over teams ranked in the top-50, and the peril becomes quite clear.  Colorado simply doesn't have a Tournament-worthy resume, and they're not even particularly close.

'Well,' you might ask, 'what if CU wins out in the regular season, would they have a chance then?' Again, the answer is no. While it is true that they would then boast four wins against the top-50, including two over current top-10 RPI ranked Oregon, the overall picture only brightens slightly. According to RPI Forecast, a 20-11 record would only boost Colorado up into the high 60s.  With the rest of the resume the way it is, with three ugly losses still on the docket, a high-60s RPI wouldn't be enough.  Further wins in the Pac-12 Tournament could help here, especially with a favorable draw, but, by that time, you're asking to hit a point on far too many successive rolls of the dice to make any statistical sense.

Really, the only shot the Buffs have at landing a golden ticket into the field of 68 is a mad-dash sprint in Las Vegas, akin to the magic they pulled off in 2012.  If you want to take those long-shot odds, at least you'll be in the appropriate venue to do so.

Sorry, but the best-case scenario at this point is continued winning, a nice seed in the NIT, and a run for NYC.  After the ups and the downs of the past few months, though, would that be all that bad of a future?

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Today in the bag, I'm talking the win over WSU, the fuel behind the revivification taking place in the CEC, and how the rest of the Pac-12 fared this weekend.

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Tuesday Grab Bag: More basketball rules discussion

Memorial Day weekend, along with the dutiful remembrances for those lost in defense of this country, has long marked the first instance on the calendar that I allow myself a peek at Major League Baseball's standings.  Not that baseball in April and May is not important - each game counts the same, after all - just that the standings themselves are rarely informative without an adequate sample size.  With two months of play down and four to go, the colloquial opening day of summer figures to be as good a time as any to break that seal. So, lets put our eyes on the positioning of both My Sox and the home town Rockies. I have a feeling where this is going to head, but you never know...

*peruses standings*

Yep, My Sox are horseshit.  After a brief stint above the .500 mark a few weeks ago, they're back to four games under, and tied for last in the American League Central - a full eight games back of the Kansas City Royals.  Nothing too surprising here as the team can't hit, standing as the lone team in all of baseball to currently sport a negative WAR at the dish.  Right now, across this country, there are little league teams bringing a better overall approach to the box.  They bring shame to the very concept of professional hitters. *cough*

Certainly, given that disparaging outcome, the Rox have to be better... right?  Nope, in fact the Rox have managed to play even worse ball than my woeful Sox over the first two months.  At 18-25 overall, they're just as mired in obscurity at the bottom of the National League West, and just as doubtful a threat for an interesting summer.  One thing to note, however: without that infamous 11-game losing streak, things could be much different.  Let's say, instead of going 0-11 to start the month, Colorado went a still sub-par 5-6. Why, in that still-sour scenario, they'd be 23-20, and a surprise challenger to both the Giants and Dodgers. Wouldn't that be something?

As it is, it doesn't look like either My Sox or the damned Rockies will prove to be very entertaining over the final 2/3rds of the season.  I guess that just means we'll all have to savor the excitement of the NBA and NHL postseasons while they last.  After they're gone, it could prove to be a very dull summer.

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Today in the bag, I'm re-hashing the new basketball rules proposals by considering Coach Boyle's opinions, before running through the playoff results.

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Josh Fortune is a Buff!

The news broke quickly yesterday afternoon: the herd is getting larger.  As CBS's Jon Rothstein first reported, Coach Boyle has decided to spend the open scholarship left in the wake of Spencer Dinwiddie's jump to the professional ranks by bringing in former Providence Friar swingman Josh Fortune.

The newest Buff: Josh Fortune!

A 6-5 two-guard, originally from Kecoughtan High School in Virginia, Fortune played a key role on a Providence squad that finished 3rd in the Big East this past season.  He started all 38 games as a sophomore, averaging 8/3/2 in the process.  Key to CU's purposes going forward, he's known as a shooter (check out this video from the Big East Tournament), and improved greatly on the defensive end as the season wore on.  By the time February and March came around, he was one of PC's better players, averaging over 12 points per game in the lead up to the NCAA Tournament.  He looked to continue to be an important part of the Friar rotation moving forward, which is why his decision to transfer raised a few eyebrows in Rhode Island.

Fortune reportedly chose CU over offers from other high major schools like Cal, Purdue, Minnesota, and Virginia.  Despite early rumors that he was interested in playing closer to home, it looks like Josh was particularly keen on moving for "professional reasons."  To that end, Fortune's mother told BuffStampede.com's Ryan Koenigsberg that her son was especially impressed with Colorado's recent reputation of developing guards. Certainly, with Coach Boyle's guard-oriented system, and an ongoing need for perimeter scoring, a player of Fortune's mold has a golden opportunity to thrive in Boulder.

Josh's message for the fanbase is "get ready, because I'm coming," but BuffNation won't see immediate dividends from this addition.  As a traditional transfer, Fortune will have to sit out the coming season due to NCAA rules. After that, however, the young guard will have two years of remaining eligibility. This is the long-term addition that Coach Boyle has always stressed that he's looking for, and it marks an important step in future roster construction.  With Askia Booker's graduation only a season away, look for the Virginia native to fill that soon-to-be-vacated shooter's role.

Uh oh, 3-goggles.

In the mean time, Fortune gets to play the Carlon Brown role from 2010-11 - back before the former guard earned his place in CU lore. Brown helped that famous Burks-Higgins-Relphorde-Knutson team excel through a strong work ethic in practice, and it paved the way for even greater success the following season when Carlon took the court. In that vein, I expect that Josh will be a behind-the-scenes practice dynamo who can help the roster by making his presence felt on the practice squad.  By the time he finally takes the court in 2015, he will already have made an impact on the roster, and be in a position to play a key role in the continued success of Colorado Basketball.

Welcome to Boulder, Josh!  

Quick post: Bye week musings

College GameDay

For a while there, I was getting worried.  The only good news of note to flow out of the athletic department in the month of January had been the verbal commitment of four-star wide receiver Shay Fields.  Good for the football program, and all, but, damnit, it's January!  No time to be talking about the gridiron.

Luckily, Wednesday brought the official news that ESPN had made the only decision that made sense, and made their own commitment to bringing College Gameday to Boulder on February 22nd.  The traveling roadshow will be at the CEC in anticipation of the Senior Day showdown between the Buffs and Arizona Wildcats.  The selection had come down to CU or Stanford for their tilt with UCLA.  While Colorado has been in a tailspin of late, even the Woldwide Leader wasn't about to lock in a trip to Palo Alto and that student section in absentia.

More than anything, I look at this as a sign of respect for the C-Unit.  There are plenty of good basketball teams across the country who aren't getting the honor of hosting GameDay.  What drew the eye of Bristol was the raucous home court advantage created in the Keg, and the students are a vital part of that atmosphere.  Kudos to the leaders of the C-Unit, young and old, for building a notable force.  The trick, now, will be maintaining the deserving energy through the month of February, and showing up at the crack of dawn (8am) to make the show an impressive sight to the rest of the basketball world.

You wanted it, you got it.  Now make the most of it.

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The return of TadBall

Almost as a threat, Coach Boyle was quoted in the Daily Camera saying:

"We don't have anything that we can hang our hat on, night-in and night out. That's always been and always will be defense and rebounding, as long as I'm the coach. I've done a bad job of keeping these guys focused in those two areas. That's where we've got to get back to basics."

Uh oh... I've seen this movie before... #TadBall is coming.

I guess it's simple arithmetic.  Without Spencer Dinwiddie, CU can no longer afford to trade shot attempts with teams over 70 possessions.  *sigh*, but I was just getting used to watching the Buffs play offense like they mean it...

To his credit, Boyle couched his return to defensive principles with a pledge that 'We're not going to take the air out of the ball and try to make it a 50-50 game,' but I'm not so sure that's realistic.  This is a young team playing too fast at the moment, and it shows.  I'm not saying some combination of Askia Booker, Jaron Hopkins, and Xavier Talton can't effectively run the point in the Mayor's stead at some point, but, outside of the USC explosion (hoo boy, the Trojans are bad), they have yet to figure it out.

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Bye week viewing

As always, the bye week, when CU sees their weekly schedule cut in half to play their travel partner, strikes me as hollow.  I guess I'll have to fill the brief basketball void with the remaining slate of conference play. Tonight we have USC @ Oregon St and UCLA @ Oregon on the docket, and those teams will be hard pressed to match the excitement generated last night.  

The UofA/Stanford game was particularly fantastic. The Cardinal pushed the #1 team in the land to the brink, but couldn't hold on to a lead that they had enjoyed for most of the second half.  A last-second three from Chasson Randle threatened to send the game to over time, but disappointingly back-rimmed.  Arizona escaped Maples with a 60-57 win, keeping their record-setting start to the season intact.

The ASU/Cal game was also a solid two hours of entertainment.  After a rough start, the Bears rallied to push the game to overtime.  Jahii Carson did his thing in the extra session, however, scoring 11 of his game-high 29 points in the five minutes of bonus basketball.  ASU earned a satisfying 89-78 victory, and took a little step closer to making the NCAA Tournament.

Of tonight's games, UCLA/Oregon is, by far, the most interesting.  The Ducks finally righted the ship this past week in Pullman, earning their first win in six tries. A win over the Bruins this evening would further solidify that narrative.  Tip-off is set for 7pm, and the action can be seen on ESPN2.

Feel free to avoid the USC/OSU game, which tips off at the same time on Pac-12 Networks.


Happy Bye Week!

Roll in the Brinks truck, Tad's getting paid.

On the same day that it was announced that each athletic program at the University of Colorado was being asked to cut costs by 10%, the terms of Tad Boyle's recent extension were released.  Originally negotiated by former AD Mike Bohn, the new contract (between a slight boost in base pay, increases in supplemental income, tweaks to incentives, and the elimination of retention bonuses) calls for Coach Boyle to receive an extra $700k per year on his contract which runs to April of 2018, bringing the bottom line number to just under $1.5 million per year. The contractual focus is no longer on Coach Boyle earning his keep, but rather now on CU compensating him enough to stay.

Yeah, I'd be smiling too.

It's a well-deserved pay increase for the rock star coach in charge of the most successful program on campus.  After 69 wins and three-straight postseason appearances in his first three seasons (both program records), this raise was, in effect, a no-brainer.

While I never took much stock in the panicked rumors from the last few years that hinted that Tad was soon bound for more lucrative opportunities, I'm comforted by the continued financial commitment to hoops, and hopeful that this raise will give would-be suitors pause.  The total, cash-money number is still lower than some of the rumored/reported outside offers that Tad has received the past few offseasons, but it's a solid step in the direction of financial security for both Boyle and CU.

What's that?  You're still worried about the buyout clause?  Well, it's nothing near the lottery-sized payments included in new UCLA coach Steve Alford's contract, but, should CU and Boyle part ways before the end of April in 2015, the spurned party gets $500k.  At least it's something.

ROLL TAD!

Why Tad Boyle won't be the next coach of UCLA

EHRMAGAWD!  COULD TAD BOYLE BE LEAVING FOR UCLA?!  PAY HIM NOW BEFORE HE JUMPS!  MIKE BOHN IS AWFUL!

*Yawn*

Wait, how did Bohn get dragged into this?  I bet it was Klatt.  Dude, go find a real job, 'cause your one-note CU take is as tired as your incessant Broncos coverage.

Anyways, for the third year in a row, rumors have started to swirl that this team or that team is going to offer our personal basketball savior so much money that he'll have to leave Boulder, and then we'd be DOOOOMED!  But, as has been the case the last two offseasons, Tad will stay put, and continue to build the University of Colorado into a basketball school.

Why am I so confident? Well...

Let's assume (and I think it's a safe assumption), that Tad isn't going to make a lateral move.  He has already reportedly rebuffed Texas A&M, Oklahoma, KSU, and Nebraska with their mountains of cash, and doesn't seem willing to entertain that level of offer.  If he were to seriously entertain leaving, at this point I'd have to assume it was only because a whale came calling.  What do I mean by 'whale?'  I mean a blue-blood, legacy-level program.  Kansas *cough*, Kentucky, Duke, Michigan St, etc.  Yes, UCLA would qualify at that level.

The problem then becomes that Tad hasn't done nearly enough to warrant a genuine offer from those institutions.  Seriously, examine his record from an outsiders' viewpoint.  He has never finished higher than 5th in a major conference, and has only one Tournament win under his belt.  Try selling that to the fanbase that just booted Ben Howland and his three Final Fours.

Yes, Coach Boyle is a winner, but he doesn't have the gaudy stats of, say, Shaka Smart or Brad Stevens that attract the big guys (Final Fours, conference titles, etc).  He will not get a serious call from UCLA, other than a net-casting 'hey, would you be interested?,' unless the Bruins go through their 1st-8th choices, getting rejected at every turn (possible).  Even then, there would be a riot in Westwood if it was announced that 'something named Tad' is sitting in the same chair once held by John Wooden.

Tad is the closest thing we've seen to a winner in these parts since Sox Walseth, but let's keep some perspective.  He has yet to make his name at a national level. 

Additionally, he has high school-age kids, and I know it's a priority of any parent to see kids of that age finish their pre-college careers with some level of geographical stability.  Even with a 'whale' calling, he'd still have to sit down with his family and decide; it wouldn't necessarily be a no-brainer.  Boulder, as I know well, is a hard place to leave.

But isn't Tad grossly underpaid?  Couldn't that drive him away?  Well, to that end, his recent contract extension calls for just under $600,000 in base salary and compensation, with bonuses and escalators pushing his total to right around $1 million this season.  It's not huge money for this level, and it should be higher, but, remember, he has only been coaching top-conference basketball for three years, and hasn't had time to really cash in on his success.

Even given that he's 'underpaid,' that doesn't mean that he'll leave this second (!!!!!!!) if someone doesn't cut him a check, a fact evidenced by his rejection of $2 million/year offers over the last two years.  Further, I have yet to hear even a hint that there's push-back from Dal Ward concerning a contract negotiation with Tad, and AD Mike Bohn has proven, unlike previous ADs (lookin' at you, Dick Tharp), that he is ready and willing to pump money into basketball.  I don't doubt for a second that, when the time comes, Tad will get paid if that's the difference between staying and leaving.  

I'm not saying that Tad would, if asked, flatly reject UCLA and their millions.  If someone is calling, ready to offer you $3 million per year, you at least answer the phone.  I'm just saying that it's stretching credulity that Tad would be asked, and that the CU would just let him go without a peep.  More than likely, this is the moment that Coach Boyle leverages the last three years for a new contract calling for more base pay, and a total level of average compensation near the top-quarter of the conference.

My dudes and dudettes, Tad isn't going anywhere.  Don't listen to the trolls.  Breathe calm and easy, and enjoy your summer.

Roll Tad.

Monday Grab Bag: 40 days...

I'm back from vacation, not that I want to be.  Beyond the stress associated with coming back to work, and the uncomfortable fit of my old routine after a successful trip home, I had gotten used to being 1,000 miles away from all things CU football.  Home in Chicago, I was blissfully unaware of the football program and its ever grumpy fanbase.  I found that outside of Colorado there is a whole world full of sunshine and joy; where children still laugh, birds still sing, and sports are still a storehouse of escapist fun.

Here, the world is ugly and gray, and that's not just the early-fall weather.  This place reeks of foul-tempers, and it's not an easy place to return to.  Football season can't end soon enough.

Close your eyes, BuffNation, and think of Tad.  Basketball season is less that three fortnights away...

Today in the bag, I'll take a brief look back at the UCLA drubbing, touch on some recruiting notes, and finish with my usual trip around the nation of football.

Click below for the bag...

Quick Post: Dustin Thomas commits to being a Buff

Another football loss, another dose of salve from our patron saint of victory, Coach Tad Boyle.

Reaching deep into the heart of Texas, Coach Boyle and staff pulled out another under-the-radar gem, as PF Dustin Thomas announced yesterday that he intends to be a Buff.  Despite increasing interest from local powers, evidenced by Thomas canceling a future trip to Oklahoma, his visit last weekend to Boulder was apparently enough to convince the young man about the virtues of the Black and Gold.  The result reminded many observers of the time when the new head coach stole Andre Roberson from the Lone Star state in 2010. 

At 6-8, and with great outside shooting skills (48% from deep last season), Thomas continues the "tweener" style of Coach Boyle, as the roster continues to fill with tall, versatile, athletic swing men who can cause matchup problems and play multiple positions.

You may be thinking, "isn't there only one available scholarship, and wasn't that already given to Jaron Hopkins?"  While it's true that CU has only one scholarship senior on the roster, it's all but assured more than one spot will open up for the 2013 roster, either via a player jumping to the NBA early ('Dre) or further transfer attrition (Ben Mills?).  Should 'Dre jump to the Association, it's more than fitting to replace him with  another lanky Texan.

Thomas not only announced his intention yesterday, but also what number he intends to wear in Boulder.

That looks pretty solid to me.  From AllBuffs and Twitter.

The story behind his picking of the number 13 is very personal.  From Rivals via Allbuffs, he's quoted as saying:

"Today is the day in 2006 my sister passed away. That is why I wear No. 13, that is how old she was when she passed away from a rare blood disease.  I just felt like it was a way to honor her. She is the reason I play the game. So to make my commitment to Colorado today was something I wanted to do."

Of all the reasons to pick a number, that's probably the most moving I've ever heard.  I hope he gets many moments in Boulder to honor his sister's life with his play.

Welcome to BuffNation, Dustin!

Quick Post: Big weekend for basketball recruiting

For some reason, I'm fascinated by this season's basketball recruiting process.  Usually, I abhor recruiting discussion, finding my time better spent on pursuits not involving the thought process of 18-yr old kids, but this fall has me jumping on every tidbit of recruiting information I can find. Maybe it's the open-ish narrative provided by Coach Abatemarco, maybe it's the fact that CU is actually grabbing some of the heavy-weights they're going after, maybe I'm just grasping at straws to distract myself from the impact crater that is the football program; whatever the reason, I'm enthralled.

I talked last week of the keystone spot in the '12 class; the point guard that would tie the whole group together and cement CU's place in the top-20.  Nominally, the discussion over the previous weeks had fallen at the feet of Messrs. Artis and Wallace.  Late last week, it became known that the CU coaching staff had cooled on Artis before any 'hard' recruiting got started, leaving Ty Wallace as the Buffs lone remaining high-profile target.

Wallace can soar, and would be the capstone of an already stellar 2012 recruiting class.

In short, Wallace is now a "must get."

Originally, CU had been scheduled as his last visit of the recruiting process (whether it's a good sign that he scheduled us last is for other people to decide), but has had to move his official visit to Boulder up to this weekend. Your thoughts, Coach Abatemarco:

Indeed.  I wouldn't expect a verdict from Wallace before he's completed all his trips, or, essentially, til the end of the month, but this is the weekend that will make or break CU's recruitment of him.

Go get him, Tad.

Coach Boyle is killing it on the recruiting trail

What was already an impressive showing on the recruiting trail for CU basketball only got better as the Buffs grabbed the commitments of two more players for the 2012 class.

Sunday night, word began to leak out that Detroit swing-man Chris Jenkins had announced his attention to don the black-and-gold.  Jenkins, who stands at a wiry 6-7, 190lbs, is known as a great outside shooter, and will probably be a long-term project for CU with a strong upside.  While his shooting skills may be needed off the bench, his wiry frame will keep from from gobbling up too many minutes early. 

Still, I like the pickup.  Our typical recruiting grounds had been the Front Range and California, so a kid from Detroit expands the recruiting base nicely.  Additionally, his height and athleticism compliment Coach Boyle's style, and lend to a high level of versatility when it comes time to play with the roster.  If his shooting is as advertised, that height can make him a deadly addition to the roster. While he may not get many minutes right away, I can see Chis as being very valuable as an upperclassman.  Additionally, I love the fact that Chris plans on studying Chemistry with an eye towards attending medical school.

Not 24 hours after Jenkins was listed as a Buff, the 2012 class was still getting stronger.  Word leaked out last evening that highly touted Southern California small forward Xavier Johnson had accepted an invitation to become a Buff.  Coach Boyle and staff had an in-home visit with him last evening, and, apparently, he liked what he heard. The 6-6 Johnson is a consensus 4-star recruit and is considered a top-100 player nationally.

A lefty, Johnson seems to be the real deal, a kid who has the athleticism, speed, and nose for the hoop that translates into a fantastic player.  He's got a nice soft touch on an improving jumper that should allow Johnson to form a great 1-2 punch with fellow top-100 prospect Josh Scott.  He's also known to have a great work ethic, and has shown the goods against elite talent, as can be seen here:

All told, CU now has 4 commitments, 2 of whom are top-100 players.  With the early signing period just over a month away (November 9th), CU is mere days away from officially sending shock waves through the basketball world.  Yet, recruiting isn't over. The Buffs are also rumored to be in the mix for yet another top-100 talent: Bakersfield's Tyrone Wallace. 

It's not every year that CU lands a consensus top-100 player, let alone two (or possibly three).  In fact, prior to the 2012 recruiting class, CU had yet to land one (although players like Chauncey Billups and David Harrison would've been at that level, had recruiting services been around back then.).  These are heady days for CU basketball, and the future is as bright as I have ever dreamed it could be.  I'm just happy to be along for the ride.

In summation, Tad Boyle is awesome.

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ESPN's bottom line on Johnson - "Smooth wing that can score on the break and in the half court by getting to the rim and taking advantage of his size or showing off his nice middle game. Johnson finds a way to use his strengths to be productive. He must be more effective on the offensive glass. Due to his work ethic and physical attributes look for Johnson to climb the recruiting charts during the up and coming spring (2011) evaluation period."

On Jenkins -  "He's been improving nicely over the past few years and should continue to do so. He needs to get stronger but he has terrific length for the small forward position. We've tabbed him as a mid-major prospect with room to grow."