Monday Grab Bag: Bring on the Pac-12!

Over the next two weeks, you may notice that the basketball band has a decidedly... older flare to it.  That's because, for the third year in a row, the band is graciously allowing a few alums, including yours truly, to join the group for some of the games over break.

I'm very excited to get an opportunity to play my tuba once again at the CEC, and look forward to filling the old arena with whatever sound I can still muster.  I am not, however, excited to perform the traditional tuba cheer.  It's an act that was meant for younger knees than mine, and I ask for your patience as I bumble through.

Still, if you're going to be in attendance for either the Oregon State and Oregon men's games, or the Cal and Stanford women's games, give a look out for the fat tuba player who is clearly too old for this shit.  That would be me.  Also, if you're taking odds on whether or not I fall over, put me down for $20 on 'does not.' I still got a (very) little game.

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Today in the bag, I'm talking the big win over Georgia, how CU looks to start out Pac-12 play, and the goings on in week 17 of the NFL

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2013-14 Georgia Basketball Teaser

I hope everyone had a happy and safe holiday break.  For the Buffs, the sting of a neutral court loss to top-10 power Oklahoma State must be short-lived.  There's no shame in losing by five to the Cowboys, regardless of situation.  With only one minor hurdle standing between Colorado and the conclusion of a successful run through non-conference play, it's imperative that the team maintains focus, and complete the task at hand.

That hurdle is, of course, the Georgia Bulldogs, who come to the CEC Saturday night.  Not a traditional basketball power, Georgia has been putting some talent in the NBA the last few years without much on-court success to show for it.  This year, at least from what I can tell, they're still mired in inconsistent, ineffective basketball. They've lost every game played against a team of consequence, while narrowly avoiding defeat in recent games against Gardner-Webb and Western Carolina.  Blech.

The Bulldogs continue to be a forgettable basketball program under Mark Fox.

The departure of star wing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to the Association has left the Athens, GA cupboard bare of 'names.'  With him out of the mix, head coach Mark Fox (once a mid-major darling at Nevada) has had to turn to a more balanced attack, as four Bulldogs average in double-figures this season.  Key on that list is 6-5 sophomore guard Charles Mann, who averages 13/3/3. Mann leads the team in scoring, free throws and assists, but negates much of his skill in attacking the rim (top 50 in FT rate and fouls drawn/40 minutes) by shooting under 70% from the line.

Beyond Mann, Georgia gets its scoring from Kenny Gaines, Nemanja Djurisic, and Brandon Morris. Djurisic is probably the most intriguing of this bunch, as he posts an offensive rating in the low 130s.  I also like his ability, with his 6-8, 230 frame, to attack off the dribble.  The Montenegran is coming off the bench, but make no mistake, he's a big part of the Bulldog attack.

Djurisic is an interesting talent off the bench.  From: ESPN

In spite of the balance, I don't see a lot of danger from Georgia offensively.  Not only do they eschew taking advantage of the three-point line (less than 18% of scoring comes from beyond the arc, near the national basement), but they take a lot of two-point jumpers (nearly 38% of attempts, nine points over the national average) which is the sign of a poorly-organized offensive effort.  Mid-range jumpers, while wistful reminders of an era long passed, are the most inefficient shot in the modern game.  The more you take, proportionally, the less efficient you are, and the easier you are to beat.

Take for example the case of starting forward Marcus Thornton.  A bulky 6-8, 235lb athlete, Thornton should be attacking the rim at every opportunity.  Instead, he's taking nearly 40% of his shots as two-point jumpers, ceding much of his size advantage out of the gate.  As a result, his offensive rating is in the mid-80s, and the Bulldogs aren't as potent as they could be.

Jump shots from Thornton are slashing his statistical value.  From: ESPN

It's statistical cracks like this that have me shaking my head, and blithely disregarding Georgia.  The fact that tomorrow night will be their first true road game of the season makes me even less convinced of their ability to compete with the Buffs.  Sure, maybe they'll jump up and bite Colorado in a moment of weakness and distraction, but I doubt it.  Even a marginal effort should get CU win number 11 tomorrow.  Probably by a comfortable margin, too.

Tip-off from the Coors Events Center is set for 8pm on Saturday.  Coverage can be found on Pac-12 Networks, with the radio call on 850 KOA.

GO BUFFS!  PROVE ME RIGHT, AND BEAT THE BULLDOGS

2013 Oklahoma State Basketball Preview

The final leg of the Big XII revenge tour brings our heroes to Las Vegas for a nationally televised tilt with Oklahoma State.  It's a little different from the other two old school rivalry games already played this season. While the brawls with Baylor and KU were matchups that held plenty of external purpose for the fanbase, playing OSU means... well, relatively little outside of practical basketball realities (RPI, rankings, public perception).  No players in a Colorado uniform have ever even played against OSU.  Whatever rivalry there may have been will not define the narrative tomorrow night; the Cowboys may as well be a really good Big East or ACC team.  Baylor and KU was for the fans.  CU/OSU is for the players.  This is a statement game, the final opportunity for the #20 Buffaloes to make some national noise before conference play starts.

The other difference between the BU and KU games and what we'll watch tomorrow is setting.  Against Baylor, the young Buffs had yet to find their sea legs, and were fighting a tough team on, essentially, their home turf.  Of course, the setting for the Kansas game, taking place at the roiling cauldron that is the Coors Events Center, was the definition of home court advantage.  In (Las) Vegas, we'll see the team on a true neutral court against a very difficult opponent under the national spotlight.  If you have any remaining questions about this team, they'll be answered at the MGM Grand.

It certainly won't be easy.  Oklahoma State is rightly considered a top-10 team, possessing some of the best talent in the country, with a solid chance of making a Final Four this season.  That's not to say CU is completely out-classed, however.  In fact, we in BuffNation need to get used to the fact that the program belongs on this stage.  These are the kinds of games great programs play in, and expect to win.  It's not a fluke or mistake that CU is in the marquee game of a nationally televised weekend showcase, after all; the Buffs belong here. It's time for Colorado to take advantage, and enjoy the spotlight.

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Tip off the MGM Grand Garden Arena is set for 9:30pm MT tomorrow evening.  So, if you, like me, will be in the Eastern Time Zone at tip-off, it's going down at 11:30 at night.  Woof.  I'mma need some coffee... Anyways, coverage can be found on ESPN2, with the radio call on 850 KOA.

Click below for the preview...

Quick Post: The year in HOLY SHIT

When friend of the blog Adam Butler of Pachoops.com says he wants some words about the state of Colorado Basketball, my only response is and ever will be 'sure, how many do you want?' This time, he's put a collaborative column together highlighting the year in Pac-12 HOLY SHIT, which makes a lot more sense when you read his introduction. I highly encourage everyone to hop over to his site, and check it out.

My contribution, covering Askia's Miracle, is re-posted below.

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If safeties-free, all-balls performances like 17 points as a freshman in the NCAA Tournament, or a sizzling domination of a non-conference run in Charleston as a sophomore didn’t let you in on the secret, let me clue you in: Askia Booker was born to get buckets. Important buckets. Season-defining buckets.

So, when Kansas, dominator of all things Colorado Basketball for generations, makes the mistake of getting into a see-saw affair in the snake-pit-that-Tad-built, who else could CU turn to with the game on the line? Not Josh Scott. He’s too smooth, too nice. Not Spencer Dinwiddie. He’s too conventional, too ‘efficient.’

No, you need insanity. You need a player with no conscience, no understanding of the stage upon which he steps. You need, to be brash, a player who does not give a fuck.

Askia Booker does not give a fuck. Askia Booker gets buckets.

And so, 80-feet from the basket, with three seconds left on the clock against that team, the under-recruited dynamo from South LA - off-center goatee, and all - was the player in silver getting the ball.

One dribble, two. Still too far from the hoop. Better euro-step to cover some ground. Square up, leap, let fly.

Watch the gif. Count the fucks given by Booker. There are none to be found. After release, he just stands there, as if waiting for the oncoming train of noise. Waiting for us, the fans, to realize what he has just pulled off. He was born to hit that shot. He was born to euro-step into that shot.

Almost four years ago, Colorado was in a similar situation against the hated Jayhawk. Clock ticking down, tie game, ball in hand, CU had a shot to stun the #1 team in the land in the time-before-Tad. In that moment, it was Cory Higgins who was called upon. Higgins, the program’s co-leader in scoring, wasn’t up to the moment, and air-balled his dance with history. Looking back, it all makes since

Booker is everything that Higgins is not. Higgins was calm, cool, collected. Indeed, sophisticated. James Bond in shorts. Booker is the junkyard dog, barking at everything in sight. John McClane in Black and Gold. Higgins may have been more talented, but Booker has the want, the need to hoop. The balls to steal headlines from future NBA bonus babies. The grit to walk across broken glass when needed.

I could twist myself in knots talking about how the game, the win, the shot meant something for Colorado, for Booker. In the end, there’s nothing but the inbounds, the euro-step, and the pure, un-adulterated brashness of Ski and his moment.

Bucket gotten.

Monday Grab Bag: On cruise control

Christmas break is just around the corner, which means a slight disruption to my already abbreviated blogging schedule.  I'll have a preview up later this week for the Oklahoma State game, and a short recap Sunday morning, but there will be no Grab Bag next week, as I will be out and about for the holiday.  After coverage of the OSU game, my next post will be a teaser for the Georgia game on or around December 27th.

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Today in the bag, I'm wrapping up the Elon game, talking expectations, and taking a stroll around the nation of basketball.

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2013 Elon Basketball Teaser

I've been worried about this game for a while.  Sure, #21 CU vs tiny Elon, with the Buffs fresh off of a win over Kansas, doesn't look like much of a challenge.  An upset looks even more far-fetched when you check out Elon's 2013-14 results, and notice losses to Canisius and DII power Metro State (woof).  But, I think there's a real danger here.

CU played in two highlight games last week, taking on the Rams up in a hostile Moby Arena before stunning KU at the buzzer in an electric Coors Events Center.  Even if the CEC is packed tomorrow, the atmosphere will be nowhere near what the team played in last week, and there's obvious letdown potential.  Keep in mind that the Buffs struggled with emotional see-saws last season, taking bad losses after emotional highs @CSU, @'Zona, vs the San Fran squads, vs Arizona, @Stanford, and vs Oregon.  CU will have to find a way to keep the blood pumping tomorrow night, or risk a humiliating performance.

From the emotional high against Kansas to a mid-December game against Elon is a steep drop.

More than that, however, the veteran Elon Phoenix do some things that will frustrate the Buffs.  They give up the offensive glass (349th in offensive rebounding rate), in part to cut down on transition buckets (not always successfully), they don't allow assisted baskets (1st in the nation in defensive A/FGM ratio), and they have a trio of shooter who can rain down threes if the defense is soft on the perimeter.  Doing those three things well - slowing transition, limiting assists, and pouring it in from beyond the arc - is the roux at the heart of any underdog's recipe for beating Colorado.

In that vein, BuffNation, let me introduce you to Tanner Samson.  The 6-4 sophomore guard out of Littleton is one of the nation's most efficient shooters, boasting an offensive rating above 150 on an eFG of 80%. Guarding him inside of 20-ft is superfluous (he has only taken six two pointers all season), but, OH MY, can he knock down a shot.  With confidence, too.  Said Samson, “If they leave me open and I can get my shot off, I’m ready to shoot. The gun’s loaded.” He's shooting 56% on his 54 threes taken this season, and has major pain-in-the-ass potential.  The Buffs need to find a way to buck the trend, and deny him the ball, since, with 90% of those threes coming on assisted plays, he's not going to create his own shot.

CU may want to guard him. From: the Burlington Times-News

Other than Samson, the Phoenix starting five features two other strong shooters that need to be watched. Swing Forward Sebastian Koch combines a 6-8 frame with 41% shooting from deep, and point guard Austin Hamilton has shown very efficient rates (72% eFG) in limited attempts (only 49 shots on the year). Both share the ball well, to boot, and create chances on the perimeter to leverage their strong shooting.

Still, even with those outside shooting dynamos, the Phoenix run things through their frontline of Lucas Troutman (first team All-SoCon) and Ryley Beaumont.  Both have shot rates in the high 20s, and the pair combine for 28/10 each night.  Overall, the Phoenix return their top-eight players from a year ago, and, even with a tough start to the season, are a good bet to grab an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. These guys are no push-over, even if you've never heard of them.

Tomorrow is Friday the 13th, so expect some weirdness.  Still, there's no reason that CU can't, at least, pull out an ugly one against the Phoenix.  All I'm asking for is a 'W,' the details are less important than the top-line result.

Tip-off from the CEC is set for 6:30pm tomorrow evening.  This is your last chance to catch the team in Boulder prior to Christmas, so make sure you're in attendance to give the team a send-off to Las Vegas.  Coverage can be found on Pac-12 Networks, with the radio call on 850 KOA.

GO BUFFS!  PROVE ME RIGHT, AND BEAT THE PHOENIX!

Monday Grab Bag: Askia's Miracle

I have to give BuffNation credit, they did their job in keeping the CEC Black and Gold on Saturday.  There were some patches of KU fans, even a small block in one corner, but nothing even close to years past when the split between Buffs and Jayhawks was 50-50 (or worse).  If you pressed me for a number, I'd put it slightly over 1,000, or about 10% of the stadium, which is just fantastic when you consider the university is contractually obligated to give them 250 seats to start with.  It was a Colorado crowd on Saturday. Allen Fieldhouse West is now dead and forgotten.

My view. Note the lack of blue dots.

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Today in the bag, I'm talking Askia's Miracle, some women's hoops, and wrapping up the women's volleyball campaign.

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