Playing just barely over half the game last week, Cody ended up throwing 43(!) times. Good gracious lord that's a lot of attempts. While I think we have the receivers to handle that many attempts, CU certainly doesn't have the QB or offensive scheme to handle that load. What's more is that drives are surely going to be shortened, leading to an already depleted defense being stranded out of the field for longer periods. Just look at last week: in the second half, with Cody slinging the ball all over the yard, CU scored points, but left the 'D' out to dry; the 10 minute Time of Possession advantage that had been built in the 1st half was flipped on it's head, and the game ended with a TOP tie. You want to know why the defense looked so gassed in the 4th quarter? It's because Cody threw the ball 34 times in the second half, and Tech was give an extra 10 minutes of possession.
(Lot's of Cody is never a good thing. From: the BDC)
CU cannot rely on it's passing game if it hopes to win (or really even compete) this weekend. The legs of Rodney Stewart got the Buffs 3 wins this year, I don't see any reason why they should be forgotten because of a change in QB. So the zone-read plays and pistol formations won't work with Cody in the game; just simplify the play-calling, and rely on more traditional runs. In the '07 game, with Cody at the helm, the Buffs ran more than they passed, kept the ball, and pounced when OU stumbled. That's what CU should rely on this weekend; give the OU offense too much time with the ball, and you'll never get up off your feet.
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OU Schadenfreude
I've said on a few occasions that I almost hate Oklahoma more than I hate Nebraska. Don't get me wrong, when it comes to Lincoln, NE I want the terrorists to win, but I've never had a good experience with Oklahoma fans. In '02, an OU fan kicked my tuba case as I was packing up after the Big XII championship, and would've busted my horn if I hadn't been quick on my feet. In '03, after nearly watching CU take down #1 OU in Folsom, a Sooner fan verbally assaulted me as I marched out of the stadium. In the '04 Big XII title game Sooner fans pelted the stadium with oranges as time expired, and I took one off the back of my head. All of that is after Sooner victories, mind you. In my experience these are not nice people; others may have different experiences, but that's where I'm coming from. That's why this picture from the '07 CU game makes me happy:
That shot, from version 2.0 of the "Dan Hawkins signature home win over a team we shouldn't beat," is all the good that has come out of the OU series for me. The rest is insults, physical pain, and emotional letdowns. I say good riddance to OU; I hope we never play them again, and I hope the State of Oklahoma is fraught with infertility, obesity, and economic hardships for the next 100 years.
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It's the only, it's the only, it's the only, it's the only, it's the only, it's the only, it's the only ... song we know!
I want to forget that this game is on the schedule. At least with the trip to Lincoln there's rivalry pride on the line. With this weekend's trip to Norman, OK there's only an ass-whuppin on the line.
Offensively, not only are the Sooners facing a depleted CU defense, but they bring one of the more impressive offenses in the conference to the field. Lead by starting QB Landry Jones (who coulda, shoulda been a Buff), the OU offense racks up over 450 yards and 35.7 points per game. They are explosive and dynamic, relying on a pro-style offense to get shit done. To date, they have passed for double their rush yards, but that doesn't mean their ground game is insignificant. RB Demarco Murray has set the all-time Sooner record for TD's, and kicks in just over 100 yards per game on the ground. He's just another in a long line (Griffin, Peterson, et al) of OU running backs who will give the CU defense fits. WR Ryan Broyles will be all over the field as well, and is by far the favorite target of the QB Jones. This is a well coached unit, and will be tough to defend in Norman.
(You can't forget Murray; he's the one putting points up on the board, afterall.)
Defensively, things get slightly better for CU. There are weak points that could be attacked. Their overall defensive numbers are slightly skewed by the game versus Air Force and their damn triple-option. While the Sooner D is only giving up 239 yards per game in the air, take the run-happy AF and inconsistent ISU offenses out and they're giving up 282 yards through the air per game. If you can pass the ball, just a little bit, they can be broken for some scores. The OU 'D' is lead by JR LB Travis Lewis, SR DE Jeremy Beal, and SR DB Quinton Carter.
As always, this is a well coached team. Bob Stoops isn't one of the most highly regarded coaches in the country for nothing; he gets good players to OU, and then gets the best out of them. They're everything you would expect in a Sooner team: talented, fast, dangerous. They may not be the best team in the country (*cough* Oregon *cough*) but they are more than good enough to take the Buffs back behind the wood shed.
Prediction Time
Kyle Ringo came out and said something stupid about having a "feeling" about this game, and went on to pick the Buffs to win. Some people are even jumping on the "we might just compete with them" bandwagon because of the '07 win, and the '06 "it wasn't so bad" loss. This is nonsense; we're getting rolled this weekend.
Yes, OU's 'D' may be susceptible to a persistent passing game, and CU does figure to throw the ball a lot, but Cody is not the QB to break them down. The weakness in the defensive backfield is a fool's gambit for CU, and, should we go chasing after it, we're in for a long afternoon. Cody may have a win over them under his belt, but that doesn't mean that he won the game. It was the CU defense who got the ball back in '07 enough times to give CU the game. With Perkins, Major, and every Nickel-back out, the current defense is tired, under-talented and playing out of position. Jimmy and Jalil won't be enough to keep the Sooner attack at bay, and if we spend all afternoon passing, they'll be left out on the field to dry.
In OU's non-conference tilts, 3 teams (Utah State, Air Force, and Cincinnati) gave them scares because they could move the ball and keep up with the OU offense. Do you really think CU's offense can keep up? I expect the OU offense to crack 40 (or more). Given that Hawk can't seem to even get 30 out of his offense on most days, CU doesn't even have a chance.
Add in the road-woes, and I expect the Buffs to get crushed. Get your board-games ready, 'cause, by half-time, you'll need them.
OU 47 - CU 13 (HEY, WE SCORED!)
GO BUFFS!
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