Covering University of Colorado sports, mostly basketball, since 2010

Friday, March 4, 2011

Nebraska Basketball Preview #2

CU vs Nebraska.  One last time.  It all comes down to this.  Having tasted defeat in my final trip to Lincoln, I desperately want to see one last win over the Huskers. The women held up their part of the bargain, finding victory as the last Buffalo squad to ever visit the "shit-hole of the plains" (that's Lincoln's official nickname, right?).  Now it's up to the men to complete a series-ending sweep of the Huskers; fading Tournament hopes be damned, this is for blood.
Cory has one last shot at the Corn, and looks to end the home portion of his CU career on a high-note Saturday evening.  From: the BDC

I talked at great length back in November about what the rivalry means to me.  I won't spoil that declaration of hate with more garbled language, but, suffice to say, I'd rather lose a thousand games to ISU than take one on the chin in the final match with the Huskers.  Both teams could be winless in conference, and I wouldn't care; for one last dance with the Red Menace I'd walk through fire.

The Buffs come in fresh off of face-planting into the wall that is the ISU Cyclones.  For all of 3 days, the Tournament was a real possibility, now Buff Nation is back to taking what it can get.  A final win over the Corn on senior day would do nicely.  Besides the final date with the Huskers, Saturday will serve as the final home game for seniors Cory Higgins, Marcus Relphorde, Levi Knutson, Javon Coney and Trent Beckley. Additionally, CU can still land in 5th place for the Big XII tournament, setting up a rematch with ISU.  I bet the boys would want a shot at quick revenge next Tuesday.
I know Levi wouldn't mind another crack at ISU; to get it, CU will need a win Saturday along with some help from Mizzou and Baylor.  From: the BDC

Nebraska comes in with their own Tournament hopes in critical condition.  Their story these past few weeks has closely mirrored that of our Buffs.  Having beaten Texas at home, Nebraska fans were talking Tournament (It's worth pointing out that they're the only Big XII squad without a Tournament appearance in the Big XII era, and have never won a Tournament game), only to see the team crash and burn in Ames.  Their road to the Dance is probably even longer than CU's, and would certainly require a win in Boulder.

I hope everyone reading this can make the game Saturday, it should be a great atmosphere, and the departing seniors deserve as great of a send-off as we can muster.  Tip-off is set for 7pm.  If you're hoping for television coverage, I can't help you, but audio coverage will be aired on 850 KOA for those who can't attend.  That's right, for the first time since before I was born, Buffs basketball is on the region's largest radio station.  For reference, my preview of the first game is here.
If you're going to watch senior Marcus Relphorde play his final home game, you'll have to be in the gym.  From: the BDC

As this is the final regular season meeting with the Huskers, it also marks my final opportunity to say fare-poorly to the other school departing the Big XII.  Really, at this point, I don't have anything left to level at the Corn.  I'll cede my remaining time to Mr James Van Der Beek; I hear he has a final message for the Huskers.  Take it away James:

-link

Poetic in its simplicity.

Click below for my preview.




When last we met - CU was being snapped back into the imperfect reality of the daunting Big XII schedule.  January's 79-67 loss in Lincoln came at the beginning of a 1-6 run through the middle of the schedule, and broke the Buffs 3-0 start to conference play.  In the game, Nebraska used their rock-solid defense and red-hot shooting to dominate the Buffs in the second half, playing +11 basketball in the second frame while shooting 60% in the final frame.  Forwards Jorge Brian Diaz and Toney McCray combined for a gigantic night, going a combined 15-22 from the floor, and providing 32 points and 10 rebounds.
McCray and the Huskers were able to push the Buffs around two months ago:  From: the Lincoln Journal-Star

Overall, the Huskers were able to frustrate the Buffs offensive talent, routinely forcing dribble-drivers into multiple defenders before getting the benefit of some untimely CU turnovers (16 over fewer-than-normal possessions).  While frustrated, CU just couldn't seem to get to the line, only taking 9 free throw attempts (tied for a season low) and none in the first half.  It was a rough game to watch, and I quit trying before the final whistle (I just can't stand to see happy Huskers).


What's happened since - Both CU and Nebraska have traveled similar roads.  Using a strong home court advantage, both teams have stayed in Tournament contention through timely upsets of Texas.  Still, Nebraska is far from a Tournament berth.  While they've notched some impressive wins in Lincoln (Mizzou, Texas, A&M), away from the Nebraska state capital it's been a tough road.  On the season, they're 1-6 in road games, with the lone win being a 1 point survival in Norman.
Home victories over the highly-ranked Longhorns have been high-points for both teams.

Since the CU game in late January, they've continued to play slow-paced defensive basketball.    Despite their up-and-down road through the rough Big XII schedule, Kenpom still has them in the top-20 of defenses nationally.  They also reside in the bottom of adjusted tempo rankings, holding steady in the low-300's nationally.

Routinely holding teams under 70 points, they stay in most games, even on the road.  By far their most impressive scoreline was their 57-48 win over A&M.  Holding any team, especially a Tournament team like the Aggies under 50 points is impressive.


Anything different? - Other than the altitude of the meeting place, not much.  This alone could make-or-break the game.  Should CU start to break even a little on the Huskers, plodding big men like Brian Diaz and Andre Almeida (generously listed at 315lbs) could start to fall to the wayside.
Almeida, and his big frame, may have difficulties keeping up with the Buffs at 5,325 ft of Rocky Mountain High Altitude.  From: The Lincoln Journal-Star

The team continues to be lead by the steady guard play of  Lance Jeter.  He does a great job sharing the ball, and the team benefits from his leadership.  The Pennsylvania raised point guard dropped 9 assists on the Buffs back in January, averages over 4/game, and is 3rd in the conference in assist-to-turnover ratio (2.3 : 1) .






Prediction - In the wake of my disregard of facts and logic in the face of emotion for the ISU game, I'll stick with what I know to be true for this one.  I know that, while the Huskers are a paltry 1-6 away from Lincoln in conference, that they've played teams very tough, only losing those games by an average of 3.5 points (which includes a 3 point loss in Lawrence).  It's their defense that allows them to stay in road games.  Playing against their D is like hitting a knuckleball; it can mess with even the best of offenses.  Only twice in conference play have the Huskers given up more than 72 points, and average only allowing 66/game against Big XII opponents.  They're desperate to play ballgames at a slow, measured pace; more often than not they get their wish.  This Husker team won't be easy to defeat.

Conversely, I know CU to be a much better team in the CEC; the Buffs have played 14-2 ball at home.  I know teams to play well in front of large, and energetic crowds; it'll be the 5th sell-out of the season.  I know the energy of senior night can carry a team; just look at how ISU performed on Wednesday.  I know the Buffs aren't going to go a full half at home without a free throw attempt like the did in Lincoln.  And I know Husker coach Doc Sadler has no concept of how altitude will effect his players indoors.  This all bodes well for CU.

For the final meeting against the Corn I have none of the reservations I felt before Wednesday's game in Ames. While the Huskers have played teams tough on the road, they can't seem to close, and know more about how to lose a game on the road than win it.  CU should come out swinging, and ride the boisterous home crowd to victory.  As long as the Buffs can get to the line more than 9 times, they should be fine.

CU 71 - NU 64

GO BUFFS!  

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