NIT game #1 Preview: Texas Southern

If you doubted the fact that it doesn't matter who's the higher seed in the NIT, take a look at the bottom portion of CU's bracket.  Both #2 (St. Mary's) and #3 (CSU) were bumped off at home last night by seemingly weaker foes.  Sure, they lost by a combined 3 points, but a loss is a loss, and the NIT elite eight will now feature either Kent St or Fairfield.  (This is where you would hear the sad trombone sound.)

Last night's NIT upsets are not wholly unsurprising for two reasons.  There were a lot of smaller conference champions who lost in their respective conference tournaments, so the NIT field is filled with stronger than usual lower-league foes.  Additionally, the NIT is never about the quality of the team, but of the level of "gives-a-shit" the team currently possesses.  For reference, look back 5 years to the last time CU got rejected by the selection committee (that time fairly); CU had no "gives-a-shit," less than 3,000 fans showed up, and the Buffs were dominated in the second half by a seemingly worse Old Dominion squad.  CU could be playing essentially anyone tonight; the only thing that matters is how focused the Buffs are on the matter at hand.

This may be one of Coach Boyle's toughest sells: to get the Buffs focused on the Tigers.  From: the BDC

That said, CU comes into tonight's opening NIT tilt fresh off one of the most devastating gut punches a program can take: assuming you're in the Tournament only to not be selected.  They had been playing good basketball, having won 6 of their last 9, but that's not the issue now.  How they rebound tonight will be very telling both about the players themselves and the coaching staff.  The Texas Southern Tigers come in having failed to win their conference tournament, and thus being relegated to the NIT nether-region.  Some consolation prize for a team that went 16-2 in the SWAC.  Tip-off is set for 7pm, and the game can be seen on ESPN3 if you get it.  Again, if you live in the Boulder area, I implore you to attend because this teams needs all the support it can get right now.

Click below for my preview




Opponents season so far - I'm having to go completely off of what they've shown statistically and what I can find through quick Google searches.  I haven't seen any game of theirs this season, and the only recollection I have of their program is from last year's 88-77 CU win over the Tigers.  Over the season, they've played some similar opponents to CU, having beaten Oregon St and Alcorn St twice, and lost to KSU, ISU, Baylor and Oklahoma.  It's absolutely fitting that the Tigers play the Buffs in the first round has they had been touring the Big XII region this year, and CU will be their 5th Big XII opponent.  The Tigers streaked to the regular season SWAC title, going 16-2 in the typically weak league.

The Tigers shocked Oregon St in Corvallis earlier this season.  From: Building the Dam

While they may have won the regular season SWAC title, the Tigers, and their conference for that matter (31st nationally in conference RPI), are not very good.  Kenpom has them as the 319th most efficient offense in the nation, and they struggle with turnovers (24.5%), outside shooting (30% from 3) and free throw shooting (63%).  The shooting numbers are slightly skewed by the fact that they take a lot of 3's, raking in the upper 6th nationally in terms of 3PA/FGA, and that they are in the top 10 nationally in FTA/FGA; maybe it's just a volume thing...

Defensively, things get better for the Tigers.  They give up less than 65 points/game and have held opponents to 60 points or under 11 times this season.  They have a pretty decent shot defense (41%) good enough for 60th in the country.


Coaching - Tony Harvey, the Tiger head coach, doesn't even have a Wikipedia page.  Sigh.  This team was a lot more interesting last year when they had former Nugget Nick Van Exel on the coaching staff, but I digress.  Coach Harvey was named SWAC coach of the year for leading the Tigers to their regular season title.  He's been with the program since 2008, and preaches ball-hawking defense.  Harvey was part of the Mizzou staff in the early 2000's under the skeezy Quinn Snyder, and he Indiana native also owns a upscale clothing line that features Magic center Dwight Howard on it's client list.  So he's got that going for himself.

That is a fine looking suit.

Key Players - The Tigers are lead by 6-8 senior Travele Jones.  The California native provides 16/9 for the Tigers, and had a 22/9 game in the Tiger loss to ISU earlier this year.  He is the SWAC's leading scorer this season.

Jones is a very good interior player.  He could hurt CU inside tonight.

He pairs nicely with defensive specialist Kevin Galloway.  The 6-7 senior, also from California, grabs 7 board per night, and his resume features a 12 rebound night against Baylor.  He was also the SWAC leader in steals this season.

Overall, the roster features 6 seniors, and should be comfortable traveling to Boulder.  Not only did they visit here last season, but they, as most small schools do, travel frequently in the non-conference portion of the schedule, picking up game payouts to keep the program afloat.


Prediction - It all depends on which CU team shows up.  Remember back to January 5th.  CU was 3 days away from the conference opener against Mizzou, and Coach Boyle had scheduled the D-II Western New Mexico Whatevers to fill a scheduling gap.  CU didn't give two-shits about that game, and played like it in the first half, allowing WNM to jump out to a surprising 16-4 lead, which they held through the first 10 minutes.  If that Buffs team shows up, they'll get beat. 

If, however, the CU squad that beat KSU 3 times and throttled Mizzou 3 days after that WNM game hits the court, look for some fireworks.  It's all about resiliency, CU has to put aside the dissapointment resulting from last Sunday, and go out and take care of business.  The NIT can do some funny things to decent teams, but CU should have no problem with the Tigers.  CU 87 TSU 59.


GO BUFFS!