Stanford Preview: Watch out for that.....

The Stanford Cardinal (singular, not plural) derive their current nickname not from this one tree located nearby, nor it's cartoon-ish manifestation that dances and gets into trouble, but rather from the color Cardinal Red.  That shit is lame; I'm much more comfortable associating the Stanford Cardinal with the drunken tree.

Unless you're a Cal fan, how can you stay mad at a mascot that goofy looking?

My inability to hate the drunken tree reminds me: I'm having a difficult time drumming up scorn for our new Pac-12 brethren.  I'm sure when USC rolls into town I'll be back to my hate spewing days of old, but, for now at least, my vitriol reservoir has run dry.  Can we at least sneak K-State back on the schedule so I have someone to rail against?

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Lessons learned from George of the Jungle be damned, CU is headed straight for that tree.  Kickoff is set for 5:30, and you can watch the horror unfold on Versus... if you have the stomach for it, that is.

Click below for my preview...

I try to be realistic with these previews.  While I love my University, and will defend it against all enemies, foreign and domestic, I'm no homer, and I always strive to tell it how it is.  This week, the "how-it-is" isn't pretty.

CU blew the last "winnable" game on the schedule for at least a month on Saturday, but that isn't even the half of it..  Injuries are piling up, and the already weak secondary has been forced to turn its lonely eyes toward offensive cast-offs, as it is now down 4 players who were just suspended for the season.  While I don't think the team has reached a "breaking point" yet, it's on the horizon, and I wonder how much more losing the coaching staff can take before Bataan death marches start being handed out.

And, as if the team hasn't had enough to deal with, the schedule now throws a road trip into Palo Alto in CU's face.  (The Buffs sure could use a bye week about now...) Ranked 7th in the nation, Stanford is by far the best team on the schedule to this point, and they should have no problem with a bruised and battered CU, especially in NorCal.

With near certain defeat on the horizon, if I can be real about it (be real son), the only interest this game holds for me is my best opportunity to really watch Stanford super-QB Andrew Luck.  If every NFL team currently under .500 is going to try and tank the final 3/4ths of the season to get this guy, I might as well bone up on how awesome he is.


Opponents season so far -

Leisurely, Stanford has breezed past their first 4 opponents by a combined 183-46.  If they've even had to break a sweat yet, I haven't noticed it.  Seriously, not a game has been close.  They've out rushed opponents by 541 yards and have a 23-5 advantage in TD's on the year.  Oh, and they've yet to give up a first quarter point; they're kinda good, if you haven't guessed. 

Stanford has looked impressive in the early going.  They're definitely a team capable of competing for a National Title.

The secret here is that they haven't really played anyone of any quality.  Not that the Buffs will pose much of a threat, but the Cardinal haven't exactly had to exert themselves so far in 2011.  All told, Stanford's first 5  opponents (including CU) have amassed a less than sterling 9-16 record (.360 winning percentage); their only opponent so far with a winning record is the Duke Blue Devils, who suck.

For the record, if not for San Jose St, I'd have to say that CU would be the worst opponent on their early season schedule.  Cue that sad trombone.


Offense & Defense - 

The words efficient don't even begin to say it.  They are cranking out near 46 points a game, while holding opponents to just over 11.  These guys execute you to death.

Offensively, they churn out over 470 yards per contest, and they've only turned the ball over once.  They average exactly 7 yards per play, and, should you ever force a 3rd down, they convert 50% of those as well. CU's defense has no chance of stopping these guys; if the Buffs force a couple of punts it'll be a major victory.

You'd imagine that a offense lead by the guaranteed 1st pick QB in the NFL draft would be a pass-first offense, but that's not necessarily the case.  Sure, they can pass when needed (almost 275 passing yard per game off of 73% passing), but they love to salt games away with their punishing run attack.  At just shy of 200 yards per contest, their running attack grabs over 5 yards per carry, and has produced 11 scores.  It all comes down to their veteran and punishing O-line lead by the phenomenal David DeCastro.

On D, they do plenty of things well.  They get to the QB (14 sacks in 4 games), cause fumbles (11 forced with 6 recovered by the Cardinal), and generally keep the opponent out of the endzone (6th in the nation in scoring defense).

They do this mostly through severely limiting the run game.  Opponents have only grabbed 249 net yards running on the season (62/game), and have only punched in 2 rushing TDs.  All told, the Cardinal have only given up 15 first downs on the ground.  This is helped by Stanford constantly leading by comfortable margins, forcing opponents to pass in the vain hope of staying in the game.  Irregardless, they still have a fantastic run-D.



Star Players - 

Andrew. Luck.

NFL teams will intentionally lose to get this guy.

Not only is the 6-4 senior a shoe-in for 1st pick in next year's NFL draft, but he's a early Heisman favorite and one of the best quarterbacks in all of football (pro and college).  Coach Embree even spent time this week comparing him to Peyton Manning.  The scary thing is, he's probably that good.

If you look at the headline numbers, you may be surprised to find that CU's own Tyler Hansen has actually been a more prolific passer on the year (Tyler: 265 yds/gm, Luck 253), while throwing just as many TD passes, and only one more INT, albeit in one extra game (Luck's lone INT went for a 76 yard pick-6, FWIW).

But, to wonder why the Luck-lead offense isn't more prolific through the air is to miss the point entirely.  He executes the offense near flawlessly, and has to put minimal effort into shredding any defense placed in his path.  His superior accuracy (71.4%, and not inflated by short passing like CSU's Pete Thomas) and efficient execution of the gameplan (178 efficiency rating) means that Stanford wastes few drives and is always in the lead.  With the help of a strong rushing attack, that actually helps keep his production totals down.

Luck is near perfect.

We've seen a rash in the NFL of teams needlessly passing with the lead, giving opponents a chance to get back into the game through defense.  Stanford doesn't fall into that trap, and does what is required to win.  I have no doubt that, if properly motivated by need and opportunity, Luck could throw for over 400 yards each game. Deprived of that need, I'm sure Luck is more than content with his 253 yards per game and 4 easy victories under his belt.  The whole deal may cost him a shot at the Heisman, but he'll care less about such piddling things when he's making millions dissecting NFL defenses over the next 10-15 years.

Other than Luck, the offense is lead by the aforementioned DeCastro, Luck's favorite target in WR Chris Owusu and punishing RB Stepfan Taylor.  Taylor especially is a danger, grabbing 100 yards per game, and finding the endzone 4 times.  When the Cardinal have a lead on Saturday, they'll give the rock to Taylor to kill the clock and prevent any comeback attempt.

Stanford could win on Taylor's shoulders, if needed.

On defense, the highlight is Chase Thomas.  The senior LB has grabbed 4.5 sacks already on the season, while forcing 3 fumbles.  Also wrecking havoc on D are CB Johnson Bademosi (a quality lock-down type) and Trent Murphy.  They're missing the great Shayne Skov, but more on that in a bit.


Coaching - 

Yet another former player coaching his alma mater, former Cardinal David Shaw is in his first year, having taken over for the departing Jim Harbaugh in January.  Harbaugh left to take the 49ers job, allowing Offensive Coordinator Shaw, who had held that position all 4 years under Harbaugh, to ascend to the top spot.  Shaw has continued the program's commitment to hard-nosed players who practice good execution.

Shaw hasn't had to worry too much in the early going.

While having been on the job for only 4 games, Shaw has kept the Cardinal pointed in the right direction.  I wouldn't know him from Adam, but he seems life a good fit for Palo Alto.


Ephemera -  The headline player on defense would've been Shayne Skov had he not blown out his knee against Arizona.  Through only 2.5 games, Skov was far and away the teams leader in tackles (he's still a co-leader 2 weeks later, btw), repeatedly causing chaos for the opponents offense.  More than just a great player, he was the heart and soul of the Cardinal D, and will be severely missed against good opponents.

The loss of Skov is a big blow to the Stanford defense.

He was a shoe-in for the NFL draft prior to the injury, but might come back for his senior campaign after the junior one disappeared almost before it began.


Band -

I couldn't resist.  As a former band nerd, having served my University proudly from 2002-2006 in the CU Marching and Basketball Bands, I get a kick out of being in the same conference as one of the most notorious bands in the nation.  The Leland Stanford Junior University Marching Band is known throughout the land as one of the craziest groups an athletic department could ask for.

Their ability to come up with some truly crazy shit to perform, and then get away with it (mostly), makes me jealous.



Prediction -

Ummmm ... loss.  Big loss.  Like, 35+ point loss.

Stanford opened at 29.5 point favorites, and, while that's a lot of points, I'd happily put money on Stanford.  The only thing stopping Stanford from thwacking CU by infinite points is how bored Andrew Luck gets with picking apart the Buffs neophyte secondary.  The Buff defense will not be able to stop the Cardinal O, certainly not with any remaining defensive depth suspended for the remainder of the year.

When CU has the ball, I could see some points scored, especially in the 2nd half when the Cardinal puts in the 3rd string, but no where near enough to keep the game close.

The road losing streak will continue, and frustration will mount.  Luckily, I won't have to watch this game, 'cause I'm putting in some overtime at the office.  By the time I get home, most of the bad stuff will be over with.

I do want to give a shout out to my buddy Jake out in the SFO (I miss ya, big guy; sorry I couldn't make it).  He sat through the Cal debacle last season, and now gets to witness Andrew Luck thoroughly thrash the Buffs.  It's yeoman's work he's doing out there, cheering on a team that will end up with 100+ points scored on them in 2 NorCal trips.  Yee Haw.

Stanford 51 - CU 10

GO BUFFS, PROVE ME WRONG AND CUT DOWN THAT TREE!