2013 Arizona Basketball Preview #1

Happy New Year!  I hope everyone enjoyed their break.  I certainly did, but it's time to refocus, and welcome Pac-12 play into our lives.

The Buffs have been lounging for too long, feasting on fatty fare like Northern Arizona and Hartford.  The meat of the season is now upon us, and the challenges will come fast and heavy for Coach Boyle and the boys.  I like to think the brutally tough non-conference schedule as steeled the young Buffs for this day, but only time will tell just how ready CU is for the road ahead.

The Pac-12 schedulers certainly didn't make it easy, handing the Buffs a mountainous challenge right off the bat.  The defending conference champions are tasked with marching into Arizona to take on the vaunted #3 Wildcats in a rematch of the 2012 Pac-12 title game.  Compared to what the team has faced the last two weeks, we've gone straight from rookie to All-Madden.

In preparation for the action, I was tasked by Pac-12 hoops aficionado Adam Butler with helping to preview the game over at PacHoops.com.  Along with well known BasketBuffs gurus James Lucas and Jason Gilligan, I think I made a good showing in the ramp-up for the game.  I highly suggest you click on the link, and soak in the dialogue that covers everything from Spencer Dinwiddie's mustache to my Bulls-fan homerism for Steve Kerr.

After clicking on that, come on back for my preview, which is typically exhaustive and exhausting.

Tip-off from the McKale Center is set for 6pm MT this evening.  Televised coverage can be found on ESPNU, with Mark Johnson hitting the airwaves on 850 KOA.

Click below for the preview...

When last we met - 

I bet BuffNation knows the answer to this one.  On March 10th, 2012, the Colorado Buffaloes - get this - beat the Arizona Wildcats 53-51 to earn their first conference title in over 40 years.

Through the first 10 minutes of the second half, CU managed to churn a scant two-point halftime lead into a seemingly solid 50-38 lead with 9:12 showing on the clock.  As there was a ticket to the Dance on the line, everyone knew that Arizona wouldn't go away, and over the course of the next eight minutes, they managed to put the screws on CU, all-but erasing that lead with a minute to go.  It was an implosion, with CU going 0-9 from the field during that stretch, allowing the unsure Wildcats slowly back into the game with a 9-1 run.  It seemed as if CU was doomed to gift-wrap the title to an undeserving Arizona squad after out-playing them for most of the game.  

Fate, then, decided to intervene.

After a pair of Jesse Perry made free throws cut the lead to 51-47, Spencer Dinwiddie, then a freshman, frantically brought the ball up court.  He swung it down low to senior forward Austin Dufault, who saw fellow senior Carlon Brown out on the perimeter.  Brown collected the perfunctory pass, and sized up his options.  Wildcat sophomore guard Jordin Mayes, a defensive specialist who was checking Brown 26 feet from the basket, took the briefest of looks towards the top of the defense to direct spacing.  Brown noticed Mayes look away and made a quick decision.  Take it away Carlon...

The Buffs had been playing tight, having gone without a made field goal the previous eight minutes.  That dunk, besides expanding the lead back out to six, gave the Buffs the juice they'd need to hang on for victory.

Even then, it wasn't easy.  The Wildcats would score four more points to cut the lead to two.  Dufault would miss both of his potentially icing free throws to give the 'Cats one final chance.  Unfortunately for 'Zona, head coach Sean Miller uses timeouts like a five year old in a candy store, and his charges had to drive into the teeth of the CU defense without a plan for the second time in two months.  Senior Nate Tomlinson wore Wildcat sharpshooter Kyle Fogg like a glove in the waning seconds, and Fogg's desperate heave fell five feet short.  The Buffs mobbed mid-court, celebrating the inaugural Pac-12 title.

Kiss the ring.

What an awesome day.

For our purposes this evening, however, that glorious title-winning performance only means that Arizona comes in extra motivated to get some measure of revenge.  In the same mold that CU wanted to extract a pound of flesh from Baylor for the evil done in Albuquerque, the Wildcats desperately want to smack around the Buffs to erase some of the memories from March.  They see it as their conference, and that the Buffs usurped their throne.  If the Buffs expect anything but the 'Cats best shot tonight, they're kidding themselves.

Opponent's season so far - 

Well, the Wildcats are one of only four remaining undefeated teams, so I'd say their season has gone just swimmingly so far.  They've even got a season defining win in their back-pocket, having nipped Florida at the pole in the Dec 15th slobber-knocker (CALL A TIMEOUT, DONOVAN!).  Add to that a non-conference tournament victory at the recent Diamond Head Classic in Honolulu, and it's easy to see why they're currently ranked #3.  I'm not ready to call them Final Four material just yet, but they're close.

The 'Zona win over Florida was a great win for them and the Pac-12.

Because of their success out of the gate, it's gotten to the point that people are comfortable saying the 'Cats are "back," and I'm having a hard time coming up with any reason to argue with them.  Arizona is an obviously strong team, pairing a deep and talented roster with an extremely efficient offense.  That offense is especially fearsome, clocking in at nearly 1.14 ppp, with a team eFG slightly above 55%. 

Turnovers may be their only weakness here, and the team coughs it up more than 21% of the time, slightly above the national average.  The bitch of is that CU isn't in a position to take advantage as the Buffs rarely force turnovers on the defensive end, only seeing them 19% of the time.

Defensively, they're equally strong, holding opponents to only .88 ppp, good for 19th in the nation.  Their success here is mostly built on an ability to use their size in the post to limit offensive rebound opportunities, as well as keeping opponents off the free throw line.  These are two areas where CU excels; it'll be a nice contrast in style.

The defense may be the key in the desert.

Their primary weakness on defense is giving up open three-point looks.  The sagging man-to-man does a great job cutting off the lane, but open looks abound, and Arizona's opponents have scored 34% of their points from behind the arc on 35% shooting.  Both numbers are well above national averages.  This is an area that the Buffs can exploit, as the Buffs are a pretty good outside shooting team (40% as a team, good for 16th nationally), especially if Ski really has regained his outside shot, as has been the case in recent weeks.

Coaching - 

Personally, I thought those negative ads released during the election season were a little much.  I'm just happy that the campaign is over, and that we can all get back to working together to make this conference stronger.

Seriously though, with Washington and Lorenzo Romar taking a step backwards, and Ben Howland and UCLA seemingly unable to take the next step, Sean Miller and his Wildcats are the big fish in the pond now.  If there was any doubt that Miller could hack it at this level, they've surely been erased by now.  It's wholly Miller's team, and he's got it headed in an Arizona-esque direction.

I just love this shot of Miller.  Look at his face!  AHAHAHAHAHA!

So please, don't knock Miller too hard for only landing in the NIT last year.  I know it's inexcusable in Tucson to even mention the other tournament, but it wasn't Miller's fault the rest of the conference was as bad as it was.  Hell, the regular-season champ didn't even make the Dance, and the Wildcats finished a made three-pointer away from Albuquerque anyway.  The ship has been righted, Arizona is back in the thick of the national polls; all is well.

He's also recruiting at an inhuman level right now, as 'Zona followed up their #4 class in 2011 by landing the nation's #3 class last spring.  Highlighted by four players in the Rivals top-50, it was a statement making class, and one that has formed the backbone of the team's current success, with an eye towards future dominance.  As a result, the team is now so stacked with talent that 'Zona doesn't even have a role for some of the team's budding stars, and players like Gabe York, a fantastic two-guard out of SoCal, are left out of the rotation.  A nice problem to have.

Star Players - 

It's easy to get wrapped up in the recent influx of young talent, but any discussion of the studs on the Wildcat bench must begin with Solomon Hill.  The 6-7 senior forward from Los Angeles entered the year as the front runner for the Pac-12 player of the year award, and has backed up that presumption by dropping 13/5/3 each night (Three assists per game... from a forward... somewhere Scotty Pippen is smiling). Those numbers may not blow you away, but, with the balance on the roster, they're massive.  Hill can do it all, and is capable of making you pay from anywhere on the floor. 

Hill was named MVP at the recent Diamond Head Classic.

The other starting senior is transfer point guard Mark Lyons.  The 6-1 Xavier refugee found a home in Tucson after a tough year in Cincinnati.  There was the post-brawl suspension, accusations of attitude problems, and, most worryingly, whispers of underlying selfishness.  It's probably best for everyone that he found a new home, and Lyons seems to be making the most out of his final bite at the collegiate apple.  More of a modern, score-first point guard, he leads the team in scoring (13.4 per game).

The third serious offensive threat may be Arizona's best.  Nick Johnson is a fantastic two-guard, who can help his team win on both ends of the court.  The 6-3 sophomore has a fantastic offensive resume, with a offensive rating of about 120 and an eFG near 58%, but also brings to the table 2.3 steals per game.  His defensive prowess has been instrumental in the Wildcat success this season, and a late-game block against SDSU in the Diamond Head Classic title game was the difference between winning and losing in Honolulu.

Nick Johnson is a dangerous match-up on both ends.

The freshmen front-court duo of Brandon Ashley and Kaleb Tarczewski have gone from highlighting the freshmen class, to dominating in the paint.  The pair combine for 15/12 each night, and have mostly lived up to expectations.  The 7-0 Tarczewski is an offensive rebounding machine (14% OR%), while the 6-8 Ashley mostly does his work on the defensive glass (25% DR%).

Rounding out the heavy rotation (over 20 minutes per game) is senior sharpshooter Kevin Parrom.  The 6-6 guard is flat deadly from outside, as he hits over 47% of his three-point takes.  A great sixth man, very versatile.

Prediction - 

Coach Boyle has made a habit of quick starts to conference play, grabbing headline-making wins on opening weekend in each of his first two conference campaigns (beating Missouri in 2011, and Washington in 2012).  The difference is that this year he has to do the deed on the road, and I just don't see that happening.

This isn't going to be a situation like Kansas, where CU just gets laughed out of the building from the opening tip, but the Buffs just don't have the horses to march into McKale, and steal a win from the presumptive conference champions.  Things can and will be different when the 'Cats make the return trip to the CEC in mid-February...

I just don't see any chance that the Buffs win this one, but I have hopes that they can keep it close for 25 minutes, or so.  I'm also betting the final ends up closer than the game actually was.

'Zona 72 - CU 65

GO BUFFS!  PROVE ME WRONG AND BEAT THE WILDCATS!