2013 ASU Basketball Preview #1

I'm not going to talk about last night.  Ever.  Don't even bother.

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CU has to shake off that-thing-that-happened-in-the-place, and focus on beating the Sun Devils.  This is a must-win road game for any team hoping to Dance.  Luckily the scheduling gods thought ahead, and afforded the weary travelers an extra day to forget.  I hope the team can take advantage.

Tip-off from Wells Fargo Arena is set for 6pm MT on Sunday.  Television coverage is scheduled for the Pac-12 Network, with the radio broadcast coming from 850 KOA.

Click below for the preview...



When last we met - 

Last February, the Buffs did what they needed to in Tempe, collecting a sorely needed in-conference road win. The final read 63-49, and, for the moment, it kept CU's fading hopes of a regular-season conference crown alive.

The big star that day was Spencer Dinwiddie, who turned it on in the second half to notch 15 points in the winning effort.  His second-half surge helped CU expand a seven point halftime lead into the eventual 14 point margin of victory.  By the end of the game, it was a laugher.

Spencer lit it up in the second half at ASU last season.  From: the BDC

In fact, both games with ASU last season ended up as relative blowouts. With good reason, too. The Sun Devils, who finished 10th in a severely handicapped Pac-12, were one of the sorriest major conference teams in the nation last season.  They may have since improved to the point that they can consistently beat the patsies on their schedule, but I have the sneaking suspicion that they're not all that far removed from the ugly duckling that settled into the Pac-12's basement in 2011-12.


Opponent's season so far - 

ASU comes into Sunday's game with a sexy-looking 12-2 record.  Sounds pretty sweet, right?  That certainly is a lot of wins...

Well, take a closer look at their schedule.  There's a lot of fluff on that list, including the likes of Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Cal St-Northridge, Dartmouth, and Coppin State.  These are the kind of schools CU used to schedule against.  The kind that usually wind up in the RPI 250+.  The kind of schools that a major conference team should be able to beat in their sleep.  Overall, it's the sort of schedule you put together in order to fool the NIT into letting you in.

ASU has blown past much of their cream-puff early schedule

To their credit, the Sun Devils did beat that hodgepodge of lower-level filler, avoiding the embarrassing type of loss that would make me question their status as a Pac-12 institution, but that schedule is shit.  As a result, you can take that 12-2 record (11-2 in non-conference play), and throw it right out the window.

"Wait a second," Sun Devil fans will say, "we're 1-0 in conference play!  Doesn't that count for something?"  When that one win is of the one-point, overtime variety - over fucking Utah no-less - then no, it doesn't count for anything. 

Damn, that win over Utah was ugly.

Statistically speaking, the Sun Devils are actually playing some of the fastest basketball they've played in recent history.  Typically a plodding Princeton-style team, with possessions per game in the low 60s, they've jumped up this season by a couple possessions to around 67 per contest.  That's good for 184th in the nation, essentially on-par with the national average.  Amazingly high for a team playing their style of basketball.

That relative turbo boost has come at a cost, however, as efficiency has waned.  Princeton-style teams over-value possessions, and often require points per possession to be well over 1.  ASU is slightly under that benchmark, coming in at .994 ppp.  That may not sound like that big of a difference, but, remember, those numbers came against a crap schedule.  If ASU can't be efficient against the Coppin St's of the world, then how can they possibly hope to effectively score against the bigger fish in the Pac-12?  Speaking of, ASU only scored .87 ppp against Utah.  Uh oh...


Coaching - 

Shit, Sendek's still there? His seat is certainly warming after back-to-back 10th place finishes.  After last season, he's only won 41% of his conference games over six seasons in Tempe.  With a new athletic director in town, he needs a strong season to mollify the growing discontent in Tempe.

HA HA!  COACHING!

It's been interesting to watch two of the Pac-12 coaches with the hottest seats (Sendek and USC's Kevin O'Neill) attack the question of scheduling. O'Neill played all comers, scheduling nine games against teams in KenPom's top-150 during non-conference play, even scheduling awkward trips to major conference teams like Nebraska, New Mexico and Georgia in addition to the always difficult Maui Invitational. Sendek went the opposite route, scheduling 10 games against teams outside of KenPom's current top-150, and making only one road trip to Texas Tech.

It seems to me like O'Neil doesn't give a fuck, and wants to steel his team through the forge of battle, while Sendek just wants to put a lot of W's on the board, hoping no one will notice when it comes time to decide his employment status. So the ballz advantage goes to O'Neill.  The employment advantage?  That remains to be seen.


Star Players - 

ASU twice lost their leading scorer last season.  First, Keala King was dismissed from the team for "unacceptable conduct."  Then, after the season, the solid Trent Lockett decided to transfer to Marquette to be closer to his ailing mother.  That has been part of a larger trend in the desert, where a total of 12 players in four years have left the program.  Considering that talent drain, it's no wonder the program has struggled.

Luckily for the Sun Devils, they have an in-house replacement to put points up on the board.  Jahii Carson, a non-qualifier his true-freshman season, is on the court, and finally putting production where once there was only promise.  The 5-10 point guard has put up some really nice numbers early on, averaging 18/3/6 through 14 games (six assists, huh?).  He's been in double-figures scoring for all but one game this season, and even has a 30-point effort to his credit (against Creighton). Carson's outside shot is a little suspect (30%), but the Sparky Sparkplug has helped the Sun Devils reduce their turnover rate from last year.  If ASU goes on to have any success this season, it'll be because of him.

Carson's legit.

One of the biggest surprises this year has been the play of center Jordan Bachynski. The 7-2 behemoth has added four points and three rebounds to his '11-'12 averages, bringing a solid 10/7 to the table this season.  Add to that his four blocks per game, and ASU has a powerful pivot to work off of.  'Dre didn't seem to be too scared of the Canadian giant last season, however:

Undersized power forward Carrick Felix, who shouldered much of the load when King and Lockett were out a year ago, has a great eFG (62.3) built on a excellent nose for scoring in the paint.  It's helped him post a nice 15/8 average.  He also has the ability to step out and hit a jumper too, as he has 18 three-point makes on 39% shooting.  The 6-6 senior is also a solid defender.

The rest of the Sun Devil starting five is rounded out by junior Evan Gordon and sophomore Jonathan Gilling. The 6-1 Gordon takes a backseat to Carson in the back-court.  Gilling, a 6-7 sharpshooter from Denmark, is the team's primary outside threat.


Prediction - 

I'm going to go out on a limb, and say that Coach Boyle uses the two off days to re-focus the team on beating the Sun Devils. I sensed a trap-game last year, and the danger is still there this time, but CU is demonstrably better than Arizona State to the point that I feel the Buffs should be able to survive any hangover-effect from Thursday.

A lot of the oddly placed hype surrounding the Sun Devils disappears as CU squeezes out a seven-point win

CU 69 - ASU 62

GO BUFFS!  PROVE ME RIGHT, AND EXORCISE THE SUN DEVILS!