Covering University of Colorado sports, mostly basketball, since 2010

Friday, January 18, 2013

2013 Washington State Basketball Preview

A trip to Pullman doesn't have to be like pulling teeth.  Just ask the football team (Remember them?  No?  Yeah, me neither).  Pulman was the site of CU's lone gridiron win in 2012.  The Palouse should get an award from Better Homes and Gardens, because that's a level of guest accommodation that goes above and beyond the call of duty.

Hopefully that warm embrace of weary travelers extends to the basketball court as well, because the BasketBuffs are in desperate need of a slump buster.

Tip-off from Beasley Coliseum in Pullman is scheduled for 8pm tomorrow.  As usual, Pac-12 Network has the telecast, with Mark Johnson's radio call emanating from 850 KOA.

Click below for the preview...


When last we met - 

The Buffs capped a 3-0 start to 2012's conference play with last January's 71-60 win over WSU.  Despite rolling with a bench that was outscored 32-5, CU casually strolled to victory behind a 28/7 day from Carlon Brown.  Those numbers proved to be the best single performance from the senior who would go on to claim the Pac-12 tournament's MVP honor two months later.  Fellow seniors Austin Dufault and Nate Tomlinson chipped in an additional combined 28 points, making the game a senior-lead affair.
It was the kind of performance that would've done a senior day proud. From: the BDC
If you want some heart palpitations, just think: all the players still on the CU roster from last season combined for only 15 points on 5-20 shooting that night.  Hopefully there's a plan in place to improve on that (*gnashes teeth, chugs a gallon of whiskey*).

On positive side-note, the Buffs managed to do what only one other team has done since: hold Brock Motum to under 10 points.  The Cougar star struggled with a very pedestrian 9/4 on 2-10 shooting before fouling out in the game's final minute.  If CU finds a way to duplicate that tomorrow, they'll be well on their way to victory.


Opponent's season so far - 

The season has gone pretty much as expected in Pullman.  They've beaten the minnows on their schedule, while falling to any team of merit.  That's not to say there haven't been some close efforts.  Buoyed by rowdy home crowds, the Cougars pushed in-state rivals Gonzaga and Washington to the brink.  Unfortunately for them, there are no moral victories, and two close losses by a combined seven points are still two losses.

The designation of their "best win" then falls to Wednesday's 75-65 conference cherry-buster over Utah. I guess it could be worse, they could already have four conference losses (*sigh*).
Ugly wins count, too.
On offense, they're exceedingly average.  Other than a high propensity to get their shots rejected (13.4% block rate, good for 336th in the nation), almost every other statistical measurement is in-line with national norms.  Seriously, look at their KenPom profile ($), it's a swath of milquetoast.

Defensively, things get a little more interesting.  WSU holds opponents to a solid .937 ppp, while doing a good job limiting offensive rebounds (23.5%, good for 35th nationally).  They also do a good job limiting easy looks at the rim, demonstrated by their 42.7% shot defense inside the arc.  That focus, however, leaves them vulnerable on the outside.  While opponents shoot a delow-average 35% from three, it's mostly a volume issue as they score 34% of their points from deep (national average is about 27%).  Made threes could be the difference between winning and losing against this bunch.


Coaching - 

The evil rhyming cousin of CU Mike's Bohn and Rohn, Ken Bone is coaching his fourth season in Pullman.  It's incredibly tough to win in the Palouse (especially with Gonzaga getting 100% of the attention), so it's a testament to the Seattle native that the program hasn't completely tanked under his guidance.
"Give it to Motum!"
Of course, anytime a coach has been around for multiple years with only a solitary NIT run to his name, the natives will get restless.  The 2012 offseason was remarkable for showcasing exactly zero coaching moves in the humiliated Pac-12.  USC has already made a change in 2013, could Bone be the next to fall?

--

You may also remember Ken Bone from such humiliations as that one time he fell on his ass trying to call a timeout.  Everyone point and laugh.


Star Players - 

I'm almost temped to stop with Aussie sensation Brock Motum.  On a team that defines *meh*, the 6-10 senior forward shines like a supernova.  His 19/7 averages, while really good, belie how truly valuable he is to Washington St.  Without Motum, I'm positive the Cougars would struggle to win a single Pac-12 game this season.  With him, they at least belong on the same court as their higher-flying peers.
Motum is the show in Pullman.  Guard him.
And the Cougars understand just how valuable he is.  Overall, Brock is utilized on 31% of possessions and takes over 34% of shots when he's on the court; both averages are comfortably in the nation's top-20.  WSU feeds him the rock incessantly, and he's taken advantage by dropping at least 14 points in every game this season.

He's not a traditional, bruising power forward.  Motum possesses a more refined game that he uses to stretch defenses, and put defenders in uncomfortable spots away from the basket.  Over a third of his shot attempts are from deep, and his 35% shooting from range is more than enough to scare you.

He also looks like Odo from Deep Space Nine (pictured right).
WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN CANNOT BE UNSEEN.















Motum may not end up leading the conference in any major statistical categories, and his team may finish in the conference's bottom-quarter, but he still deserves serious consideration for Pac-12 player of the year honors, simply based on the fact that WSU would be horrifically awful without him.  No, he's not a perfect player, and he'd be relegated to second or third status on plenty of other teams, but he's the whole show in Pullman.  The Buffs better have a plan for how to deal with him when he has the ball.

Unfortunately for Motum and Washington State, you need more than just one guy to fill out a lineup, and there just isn't that much left on the bench after you take the Aussie out of the equation.  Beyond Motum, the best remaining Cougar is probably DaVonte Lacy.  The 6-3 sophomore guard has recovered from an early season knee injury to put up 10 points per game in slightly-reduced minutes.  He combines well with 6-5 wing Mike Ladd, who posts a respectable 10/6/2 each night.  Both Ladd and Lacy, however, struggle from the free throw line (63% and 66%, respectively).
Lacy is one of many Cougars who take a backseat to Moutm on the court.
The starting lineup is rounded out by 6-3 sophomore guard Royce Woolridge and 6-10 junior power forward D.J. Shelton.  Woolridge post three assists per, while Shelton has a nice defensive rebounding rate in limited minutes (20.6%).


Prediction-

I can't even imagine 1-5.  My brain just can't process such a painful prospect.  So, like a petulant child throwing a tantrum, I'm going to ignore they very real possibility of yet another flat road performance, and predict/demand a CU win (while stamping my feet).

CU keeps Odo (err, Motum) to under 15, Dinwiddie has an assertive performance, Ski shoots over 40%, and the Buffs escape Washington with a split.

CU 70 - WSU 61


GO BUFFS!  PROVE ME RIGHT, AND BEAT THE COUGARS! (Please)

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