2013 Stanford Basketball Preview #1

Thorburn did a pretty good job yesterday highlighting just how awful the team was against the Cardinal last season.  22-point average margin of defeat, out-rebounded by a total of 32, 51% shooting allowed from the floor ... they essentially kicked the snot out of the Buffs for 80 minutes.  Or, as Ski put it today, "They didn't just handle us, they destroyed us.  They put our heads in the dirt and kicked us in our head."  Exactly.

But the BasketBuffs aren't alone in their struggles with the red horde from Palo Alto.  CU, across the six head-to-head varsity team sports that it still competes in, has yet to defeat Stanford in anything since the start of the Pac-12 era.  0-13. While the athletic department has been similarly futile against UCLA over the last two years, Stanford has historically been an imposing hurdle for Colorado Athletics.  All told - between football, men's and women's basketball, volleyball, soccer, and tennis - the University of Colorado has posted a 10-39 all-time record against the Cardinal, with the last win coming in 2002 (the women's sweet-sixteen victory up in Boise).  Prior to that, you have to go back to 1990.

Sure, much of that history of futility comes from the fact that they weren't regularly scheduled prior to last season, but the point remains. It's time that the University finds a way to break through against their NorCal rivals.  The Cardinal women's programs are far superior to their CU courterparts, and we all know the disaster that resides in Folsom, so the task falls at the feet of Tad Boyle and crew.

Tip-off from Boulder is set for 8pm MT.  Tickets are still available; no excuses, pack the CEC! Coverage for the out-of-town set can be found on ESPNU, with Mark Johnson and his radio coverage on 850 KOA.

Click below for the preview...


When last we met - 

The Buffs failed to defend the best home court advantage in the West, and flopped to an embarrassing 74-50 finish.  It was CU's only home loss in the 2012 calendar year, and the performance was so bad that it drove me to watching Alf reruns.

It wasn't embarrassing because Stanford wasn't a good team, or anything like that.  It was embarrassing because, from the opening tip, you could tell CU wasn't interested in putting in the work to play with the Cardinal.  It was utter domination in the paint, on both ends.  Stanford did the work inside, and the Buffs shrunk like violets.

There's a lot wrong with this picture.  From: the BDC

How bad was it? Let me put it this way.  Early in the second half Coach Boyle called a timeout.  While his team slumped towards the bench, Coach stepped towards midcourt, away from his team.  Alone on the hardwood, he looked to the heavens, and, in an eerily quiet CEC, screamed "FUCK" at the heartless rafters.  His bellow of frustration was the most competitive sign the the squad produced that night.

FUCK, indeed.


Opponent's season so far - 

Plenty was expected of the veteran Cardinal roster.  Influenced by their 2012 NIT title and a slew of returning juniors, the official preseason poll had them in the Pac-12's top-four teams, and many observers (including myself), thought they had a great chance to compete for a top-three finish.  In light of those expectations, some may look at their current 11-7 record (2-3 in conference) and think "disappointment."  I'm not so sure.

Seven losses may seem like a lot, but the Cardinal have yet to take a bad one.  Their worst, if you must label it as such, was their conference opening loss @ USC.  As much as you might want to dump on the Trojans, it's not the kind of loss that would exclude Stanford from Tournament consideration should they catch fire over the next month and a half.  Their wins haven't been that sexy, with the best, going by KenPom, coming against Denver (meh).  Considering their difficult schedule, however, I'm willing to give them more opportunities to live up to the preseason hype.

Come on guys, it's not that bad.

On offense, while they do post a respectable 1.04 ppp, they've really struggled shooting the ball.  Their eFG is in the nation's bottom third (45%), they've shot under 31% from beyond the arc, and have been making a  shockingly low 56% at the rim.  It seems odd considering how well they shot the ball last season in the two CU games, but they've just been chucking up a lot of bricks this season.  On the plus side, they shoot very well from the line (74%).

Defensively, they're one of the nation's better teams.  They hold opponents to just over .9 ppp, relying on their rebounding prowess to limit second looks.  Additionally, they do a great job covering outside shooters  (a very low 26.8 3PA/FGA ratio) and limiting assists (46.3 A/FGM ratio).  Both are well below national norms.  They still guard tough, and make their opponents uncomfortable.


Coaching - 

Ah, the dream of becoming the Anne and Tony Joseph Director of Men's Basketball.  What young hoop fanatic doesn't grow up hoping to put that mouthful on their business card. Johnny Dawkins continues to live that dream, coaching his fifth season on "the Farm."

Inconsistency is the final hurdle separating Dawkins and success at Stanford.

The long-time NBA vet has still yet to lead the Cardinal to a top-half finish in the Pac10/12, finishing 7th or worse in each of his previous four seasons.  Inconsistency and unfulfilled promise have defined his tenure, but there have been some high points.  The brightest is undoubtedly the NIT title run from this past March.

Next year will be key for the Dawkins era.  He'll have seven high-impact upperclassmen, including five seniors, to run onto the court.  If A&TJDMB Dawkins can't make something happen with that bunch, then there may not be much hope going forward.


Star Players - 


The 1-2 punch of Chasson Randle and Dwight Powell form the backbone of the Stanford attack.

Randle, a 6-1 slashing guard from Illinois, leads the team in assists and steals while averaging 14/3.  After a stellar freshman campaign which saw him named to the Pac-12's All-Freshman team, he's seen his production drop off a bit via the mythical sophomore slump.  The biggest problem has been his outside shooting where he has gone from a 44% shooter last season to a 25% shooter this season.

Struggling to maintain his freshman-year success, Randle is still very dangerous.

Powell is your basic versatile power forward.  Averaging 15/8, the 6-10 junior is a terror in the paint. Beyond just solid technique in the paint, however, he has the ability to step out on the pick-and-pop (38% from deep), and hit 80% of his free throws.  A defensive rebounding rate over 22% rounds out his top-flight stat line.  Despite his skill, CU hasn't seen much of him.  Afforded the opportunity, Coach Dawkins barely let him sweat against the Buffs last season, limiting his star forward to an average of only 14 min in the two CU games.

Powell is a quality power forward.

Swing forward Josh Huestis is a strong jump shooter.  The 6-7 Montana product takes 74% of his shots from the field, including 50% of his attempts from mid-range.  However, with an increase in minutes and shots this season, he's seen his ORating and eFG drop.  On the flip-side, he's greatly boosted his rebounding rates, and is pulling down over nine per game.

Aaron Bright is the prototypical pesky small guard that every opposing fan learns to hate.  He carried the Cardinal through the post-season, and was justifiably named the NIT MVP in March.  A 5-11 junior, his primary value is as defender and free throw master.  He hits over 92% from the line.  Just please avoid fouling him.

An MVP is an MVP.

The starting five is capped by forward Andy Brown.  The 6-7 Mater Dei product once suffered three successive ACL tears, sidelining him for nearly two years.  He finally saw some action last season, and has been a feel-good addition to the rotation this year.

Prediction - 

Beating the 7th best team in a conference shouldn't be this hard, but Stanford has CU's number.  Last season, the primary issue was size.  With Zimmerman the yeti gone, and Xavier Johnson and Josh Scott added to the CU roster, that deficiency has been mitigated. Still, the fact remains, Stanford knows how to win against the Buffs.

CU needs this one, and they swear they're better prepared for the rampaging Cardinal, but I'm far from convinced that things are all that different.  Until proven otherwise, I'll default to my opinion that Stanford is just that team.

Stanford 71 - CU 64

GO BUFFS!  PROVE ME WRONG, AND BEAT THE CARDINAL!