2013 USC basketball preview

If there's any comfort to be derived from a week spent assessing life after an 0-2 start to conference play, it was that CU can still look forward to the remaining nine home games on their Pac-12 schedule.  Yes the win-that-wasn't in Tucson stings, and the stumble against ASU confuses, but CU's conference and Tournament resume was always going to be built around home cooking in Boulder.  7-2 is the baseline expectation, with 8-1, or even 9-0, possible and welcome.  Where does that confidence come from?  Under Coach Boyle, CU has won 90% of all games played in the CEC, turning the once cavernous concrete bunker into a feared destination.  At the end of the day, that strength at home defines the #RollTad experience, and it will be called upon to revive the momentum of a season suddenly stuck in neutral.

Enter: the SoCal duo of USC and UCLA.  It still may be too early to call them both must-win games, but certainly tonight's dust-up with USC qualifies for that tired mantra. The Trojans aren't the steaming pile of dogshit they were last season, but this is still a game the Buffs should win - must win if they have any realistic postseason hopes.

Tipoff from the CEC is set for 8pm MT.  Those planning to attend may want to show up early, because yours truly will be jamming with the basketball band starting at 7:30 (I apologize in advance).  Those without tickets or the ability to get to the game can catch the action on ESPNU.  Mark Johnson and the radio call are on 850 KOA.

Click below for the preview...


When last we met - 


Probably the most memorable part of that night took place off the court.  A handful of CU fans (including myself) signed up for USC's pay-per-view stream of the game, but were rebuffed when the connection failed.  Rage face abounded before refunds were quickly offered.  Luckily, the Buffs had no problem connecting on the court, and, in one of the largest road wins in recent CU history, cruised past a historically bad USC squad 74-50.

The big star that night was Andre Roberson, who had a vintage 13/10 night in only 21 minutes.  In reality, however, it was a total team effort.  Five Buffs, including Jeremy Adams of all people, scored in double figures, and the large margin of victory allowed bench warriors like Trey Eckloff and Shannon Sharpe to see some action.

The red and gold sea parted for even the CU reserves.  From: the Post.

It was an important win for the Buffs, one of only three in-conference road victories they'd grab on the year. 


Opponent's season so far - 

The '11-'12 Trojans were legitimately one of the worst teams in the nation, and a primary reason that the Pac-12 was considered such a disaster come March.  Yes, it made for an easy road trip, but every time the Trojans played a Pac-12 school, they came away with a piece of their opponent's RPI.  Thankfully, coach Kevin O'Neill's bunch is no longer drooling in the back of the class, and, while still not a good team, are now at least statistically better than the Western Carolina's of the world.

As I touched on in the ASU preview, the Trojans loaded their non-conference schedule with Big Six detritus, enough for the nation's 17th toughest schedule according to CBS.  As a result, their 6-9 record is a little deceiving.  Had they been tasked with the cream-puffs from ASU's slate, they'd also have 10+ wins already. There's just no shame in getting blown out by the likes of Illinois and Minnesota.

All things considered, they've actually been enjoying a nice season.  Last week's surprise win over Stanford already equals their in-conference win total from last season, and they look to be a difficult out at home.  Kenpom even has them in the top-150.  WooHoo!

The USC victory over the Cardinal was an early season shocker in the Pac-12.

One thing that isn't deceiving is their ugly offense.  Yes, they play slow (240th in tempo), which does a lot to explain why they're 271st in scoring (63.3 ppg), but a team eFG around 46% is astonishingly bad for a major conference squad.  As a result, they've only topped 70 points three times this season, and only once against a team of note (Stanford, 71). Their biggest problem is when they try to score away from the rim, as they make only 34% of their true jump shot attempts.  CU should do themselves a favor, and force them into reckless jumpers.

USC's taking a jumper?  *insert 'clang' noise here*

Defensively, things are better.  Their defensive efficiency is in the nation's top-100, and they specialize in blocking (14%, 26th in the nation), and changing shots (have given up only 58% shooting at the rim, 29% on two-point jumpers).  Conversely, they are susceptible to made three-pointers, as they give up nearly 38% from beyond the arc.  Much like the Arizona game, CU would behoove themselves to take (and make) some extra 3's.


Coaching - 

Say what you will about the man, but I'm convinced that USC head coach Kevin O'Neill is cursed.  There's no other way to explain the litany of injuries and defections that have brutalized the Trojan roster over the last few years.  Last season alone saw the squad lose seven players to injury, and three to the transfer list.  The Kevin O'Neill era lost any semblance of identity in the wake of that roster disaster.

Maybe the basketball gods are punishing him for his defensive addiction.  Yes, you absolutely need to defend in order to become a successful team, but coach O'Neill's grind-it-out style of play strikes me as an affront to what should be a beautiful game.  It is a spectator sport, after all.   Recruit a jump-shooter, Kevin!  Please!

Related: I'd hate to meet him in a darkened alley.

Regardless of the circumstances, a 6-26 run in your third season is never good for a coaches tenure.  The conventional wisdom has emerged that O'Neill needs at least a middle-table finish this season to make a serious justification for a 5th year on the USC bench.  Even then, attendance is down despite a beautiful new arena, and interest in the program has hit a lull.  Maybe 9-9 in Pac-12 play won't even be enough to save his job...


Star Players - 

The buzzword with the Trojans is transfer. Whether it's JuCo, graduate, or traditional, their roster is bloated with second chances and fresh starts.  There are 10 in all, and they form the backbone of the team.  In a sport that uses amateurism and school pride as a crutch, I think it speaks volumes that these guys all started their collegiate careers elsewhere.  I would imagine, with all those transplants, that their locker room takes on a professional/mercenary vibe.  Surely coach O'Neill, formerly of the NBA, loves it.

The big news in University Park is that Jio Fontan is back, having recovered from the ACL tear that cost him the entirety of '11-'12.  While last year's S.S. Trojan was sunk by a tidal wave of icebergs, that injury was the original cause of distress.  With him back in the fold, the Trojans are a much more capable beast.  Originally a Fordham Ram, the 6-0 senior is a true point guard, and brings a very respectable 5.3 assists per game to the table.  In total, he's doled out an assist on 45% of all USC field goals this season, while also leading the team in minutes.  Not a good shooter, however, with an eFG just above 35%.

Fontan's back, and he's been the primary engineer behind USC's scoring this season.

Their leading scorer is 6-6 forward Eric Wise.  Formerly of UC Irvine, Wise drops 12 points per game, which, considering Coach O'Neill's slow-drip offense, is a boatload.  He once lead the UCI Anteaters in scoring, rebounding, and assists as a sophomore, so he brings a wealth of capability with him to downtown Los Angeles.  He's notable for being the only Trojan starter with an Offensive rating over 100 (it's 115.7, to be exact).

Manning the paint is true seven-foot center Dewayne Dedmon.  The JuCo product was already struggling through an injury-ridden '11-'12 campaign before CU came to town last January.  When he tore his MCL in that game, it ended all doubt that last year's Trojan squad was cursed.  Now mostly recovered, he's been anchoring the USC post presence in this, his junior campaign.  He's a nationally rated interior defender, appearing in the top-50 of both the defensive rebounding and shot blocking rate lists, and severely limits easy looks at the rim.  His sub, 7-2 transfer Omar Araby from Rice, only further complicates matters in the paint.  It's like a pair of Bachynski's.

Dedmon and Araby do a great job protecting the rim.

The lone true Trojan who sees any action is 6-5 guard Byron Wesley. In addition to holding an original USC scholarship, the sophomore also boasts the distinction of being the only returner from last season's end-of-year rotation. Surprisingly, he survived '11-'12 injury-free, and decided not to transfer.  Good for him. Afforded some backup with the new roster, his minutes have been cut by about 10%.  Still, he's USC's second leading scorer with 9 points per game.

JT Terrell, one of two Wake Forrest refugees, is often noted as USC's best pure athlete, and was supposed to round out the USC starting five.  Instead, the 6-3 guard was recently benched for "not playing well" (which, while true, is far too simplistic, and sounds suspiciously like a cover).   In his place, senior swing forward Aaron Fuller has found his way back into recent starting lineups after missing much of last season with a labrum tear. A 6-6 transfer from Iowa, he's a decent rebounder, but not nearly the capable scorer that Terrell could be.


Predicition - 

It can be ugly, I don't care.  Just as long as it's a CU 'W,' I'll sleep easy tonight.

I'll take a guess, and say that the USC seven-footers get into early foul trouble, opening up the lane for the CU offense to attack the rim.  Combined with the favorable home whistle, and the accompanying trips to the free throw line, the Buffs should close each half strong for once.  If that's the case, USC just can't hit enough jumpers to make up the difference.

CU 68 - USC 61


GO BUFFS! PROVE ME RIGHT, AND BEAT THE TROJANS!