UPDATED: 2013 Utah Basketball Preview #1

Wednesday night was rough for both CU and the Pac-12.

For the Buffs, RPI boosters Baylor and Wyoming both lost home games.  That Baylor loss especially hurts, as their season is about to hit a brick wall in the form of a difficult road trip to ISU and OSU.  (At least I got to see Sr. McDoucherton miss a wide-open look at the buzzer, costing his team the game.  Suck it, Heslip.) Wyo? Well, they're hoping to hold onto a spot in the NIT as their season quickly spirals out of control.  The two loses don't cripple CU's still sterling RPI, but it does seem a little softer than it did a few weeks ago.

For the Pac-12, chaos reigns again as the conference's #1 and #2 squads each took it on the chin, losing to #7 and #9, respectively.  Holy hell Oregon, many thought you'd lose at Stanford, but did you have to twitch around like a heroin addict for 40 minutes?  Go home, Oregon, you're drunk.  Oh and UCLA?  No biggie, they just lost at home to a bogus USC squad run by an interim head coach.  On Reggie Miller night, no less. It's a good thing Bruins Nation is able to maintain composure in trying times such as these.

Just generally a no-good night of fail.  At least Arizona held on Thursday night at Washington, maintaining some semblance of normalcy, but those are bye week concerns.  Tomorrow holds actual CU basketball to consume.  What could possibly go wrong?

Tip-off from the Huntsman Center in beautiful Salt Lake City is set for 12:30 MT on Saturday.  Prior to the game, Utah will be honoring the legacy of Rick Majeras by retiring his famous sweater into the rafters.  Those with DirecTV are in luck, as ROOT will have the broadcast.  If you can't find ROOT, Mark Johnson has you covered on 850 KOA.

Click below for the preview...


When last we met - 

If there's one thing Utah knows how to do, it's make things ugly. They showed off that skill in last season's first round of the Pac-12 tournament, frustrating CU throughout the eventual conference champions' 53-41 victory.

It was all about ball control. The Utes took as much time as possible with the ball in their hands, clinging to the hope that killing the clock would also kill CU's offensive momentum.  For a time, I was worried that it was going to work as the game's pace ground to a halt.  Utah held a lead after 10 minutes of play, and the Buffs had a stretch of over 11 minutes in the first half without a made field goal.

However, CU did eventually find a way to break out of the Utes' slow-down rut, mostly as a product of big games from Carlon Brown and Andre Roberson.  The pair scored 21 of the team's 25 first half points, and combined for 35/19 on 55% shooting overall.  The Buffs needed their production, as the rest of the team shot a combined 17% from the floor.

It's a good thing Carlon was focused on getting the win.  From: the BDC

On defense, CU held the Utes to 24% shooting in the second half and caused 18 turnovers, which kept the sloppy offensive play from becoming fatal. 

How I managed to stay awake through this one, I'll never know.  Leaving the Staples Center that night, I was convinced that the Buffs had no shot of advancing past the following evening, and even began making plans to hang out with my SoCal friends the following weekend.  Fortunately, the Buffs took the schedule-making into their own hands...


Opponent's season so far - 

Coming off one of the worst seasons in the history of big conference basketball, I don't think many would have blamed me for wanting to pour gasoline over the Utah program, and burn it to the ground for the insurance money.  Seriously, if you have a KenPom subscription, do yourself a favor, and check out this steaming pile of dogshit.  This was a team who almost lost to San Diego Christian in an exhibition game, for the love of Tad.  That's an NAIA school! Fucking embarrassing... (Although, they did manage to do what CU couldn't last season: beat Stanford)

When Utah dropped their 2012-13 season opener at home to Sacramento St, I couldn't help but think "oh boy, here they go again." Fortunately for everyone involved, that loss was not indicative of their seasonal direction, and Utah has managed to at least keep their heads afloat this season. They currently stand only two games under .500, and hold two nice wins over Boise St and @Washington in addition to close losses against @BYU, @ASU, @UofA and UCLA.

The win over UW hints at a much better year in SLC.

The NIT is well beyond their grasp, but at least they're not spitting up on themselves anymore.  Simply put, they're better this season.  Not good, just better.

Offensively, they spread the ball around well, and hold one of the nation's best assist/made field goal rates (63.1%, 19th nationally).  They're still very methodical, taking much of the shot clock looking for a wide-open look.  All that time with the ball hurts, however, in the turnover department, where they have one of the nation's worst offensive steal rates (nearly 12%).

Defensively, they do a good job limiting good looks in the paint, as opponents only hit 42% of two-point looks.  The flip-side is, of course, that outside looks are plentiful and of quality.  Opponents score nearly 32% of their points from deep, based on 35% shooting from beyond the arc.  Both rates are well above national averages.  Utah also struggles at causing turnovers, coming in at 339th nationally in defensive turnover rate (15.5%)


Coaching - 

It must be taxing, coaching one of the worst teams in the history of big conference basketball.  To his credit, Coach Larry Krystkowiak didn't let the Utes' ugly 2012 performance deter him from returning for a second year. (Also, you know, the paycheck.)

Krystkowiak is still there.  Answers, however...

Helped by a stabilized roster, performance has undoubtedly improved this season (it'd be hard not to), but the word ugly still defines both their play and their program. In response, the other Coach K is open to new ideas, and is taking individual meetings with his players searching for answers. Still, his team is 'getting punked' on the court, the natives are growing despondent.

These guys are the basketball equivalent of the CU football program, and I sympathize with our Utah brethren for having to put up with this garbage.  I'd make up an "it gets better" video for Ute Nation, but I'm not convinced that it ever will.


Star Players - 

(UPDATE: 2/1/13) Big roster shakeup news from SLC.  Loveridge may be out with a hyperextended knee.  He's currently listed as day-to-day.  Keep an eye on twitter; without Loveridge, Utah loses much of their bite.  Additionally, backup center Dallin Bachynski is out, serving a pseudo-suspension.  He's back in practice, but I would assume the plan is still to sit him Saturday.  I touched on him in the Washburn feature, but Bachynski was pushed to the side when Washburn reclaimed his starting role, so this probably won't have that much impact on Saturday's result.  The potential loss of Loveridge is the key.

Despite not losing a single contributing member to graduation, the Utes are playing 2013 with almost an entirely new roster. Of all their contributors last season, only two have returned, and they've added four D-1 transfers, a pair of JuCos, and a prized high school recruit. The hope is that the foundation has finally been laid for a turnaround.

The key piece seems to be 6-6 freshman power forward Jordan Loveridge. Considered by many to be a top-100 recruit in the 2012 recruiting class, Loveridge, a local product, has lived up to the hype.  He already leads the team in points and rebounds, while balancing the on-court rotation.  On a roster mostly devoid of eye-popping talent, he's a notable exception.  If the Utes have any success in future years, it will be built around this kid.

Loveridge can hold his own in the Pac-12.

Loveridge combines well with 2012 holdover Jason Washburn, who continues to patrol the paint in SLC.  The 6-10 senior brings 11/6 to the table in his final campaign, while also chipping in nearly two blocks per game.  He had coughed up his starting spot to sophomore Dallin Bachynski (brother of that guy) earlier in the year, but reclaimed it before conference play.  Washburn was the lone piece on last year's team that was worth a damn, so I thought the benching was completely unfair.

Washburn is yet another quality Pac-12 big.

In addition to Washburn, the only other holdover from the 2012 roster is wing Cedric Martin.  Mostly a defensive presence, Martin's 1.4 steals per game, while not eye-popping, are his only stats of note.

The starting five is rounded out by the backcourt transfer pair of Glen Dean and Jarred DuBois.  Dean, a 5-10 junior transfer from Eastern Washington, continues to jockey for the starting point guard spot.  DuBois, a 6-3 senior transfer from Loyola Marymount, is the lone Ute guard who is any type of scoring threat, and chips in 12 points and three assists per.  Both shoot pretty well from deep (Dean shoots 38%, DuBois 40%).


Prediction - 

These may not be the 2012 Utes, but there's still no excuse for losing to this bunch.  They'll make it ugly, and they'll frustrate the crap out of you by slowing everything down, but they're still a well below average team.  This is an absolute must-win for the Buffs, and they should treat it as such.

You may want to look away, and hold your nose, but CU will take the win and move on to Oregon. The inside presence of Loveridge and Washburn does concern me, but the Buffs should have enough to muddle by.

CU 62 - Utah 54

GO BUFFS! PROVE ME RIGHT, AND BEAT THE UTES!