2013 Stanford Basketball Preview #2

Last season, facing a similar stretch run against the NorCal and Oregon schools, the Buffs went 1-3, destroying any possibility of an at-large berth, and pushing the squad all the way out to the 6-seed in LA.  A repeat stumble cannot happen this season. 

With a second home loss, the once sterling RPI is starting to slip into the danger zone, and the Buffs need to show at least some life to reinforce the Tournament firewall.  Even a single win this week would suffice.  The good news is that I don't hate either matchup.  CU thrashed both Stanford and Cal in Boulder, and neither win seemed purely a result of home-cooking.  A split isn't all that much of a stretch.

On paper, with Cal playing some of the best basketball in the West, Stanford appears to be the riper fruit for picking.  However, I don't really care which team the Buffs end up beating, as long as they find a way to get at least one win in the Bay Area.

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Tip-off from Maples Pavilion is set for 9pm MT this evening.  Coverage, including color from Pac-12 hype-man Bill Walton, can be found on ESPN2.  If you for some reason hate America, and would rather not listen to Walton, Mark Johnson will have the radio call on 850 KOA.

For reference, my preview from the first game can be found here.

Click below for my preview of the rematch...


When last we met - 

In a complete reversal of the horror shows from the previous year, the Buffs silenced their nemesis from the 2012 season in convincing fashion.  CU would never trail in the game, using a combination of red hot shooting and voracious defense to steamroll the Cardinal throughout a 75-54 win.

There would be no repeat of 2012.  From: the BDC

The stat lines are a thing of beauty.  The Buffs shot 57% from the field, held Stanford to a quiet 34%, outscored the Cardinal 44-20 in the paint, and enjoyed a +18 rebounding advantage.  It was utter domination.  (I'd have felt bad for Stanford if they hadn't had rubbed CU's noses in it for all of 2012.)

The overall team performance was defined by the spectacular play of Andre Roberson.  A top-line of 12/20 is big enough, but the rangy forward also chipped in three blocks, three steals, and two assists.  He was easily the best player on the court, a defensive force that Stanford couldn't counter.  You could almost see the sag in the players in red when he would re-enter the game.  With #21 playing to his potential, the game was as good as over from the opening tip.

'Dre's ball!  From: the BDC

Including 'Dre, all five CU starters finished with at least 11 points.  As good as the great Roberson was, this was a team win, probably the best looking of the year.  It was a performance that I hope can be duplicated this evening.


Since then... -

After getting mauled in Boulder, the Cardinal actually sprung off the mat to reel off three-straight victories, including a 24-point pasting of wounded Oregon in Palo Alto.  After some early season struggles, perhaps the veteran Stanford squad that had been picked to finish in the Pac-12's top-four was about to emerge...

The Cardinal looked pretty good back in January when they ambushed Oregon.

Unfortunately for the Cardinal faithful, a trip to the desert saw the run halted by Arizona.  Including that loss, Stanford has dropped four of six, centered around a pair of home losses to the LA schools.  As a result of their disappointing February, the Tournament is out of the question, and they'll have to settle for a defense of their 2012 NIT title.

The Cardinal went 0-4 against the SoCal schools this year.

Still, they remain in the conference's bunched-up middle, and a strong stretch run could jump them up the standings in a hurry.  What's more, I can easily see them making a few teams sweat in Vegas.  As always, Stanford remains a team that you'd rather not see in your bracket.


Why things could be different - 

The big problem for CU is that Josh Scott is probably still out with a concussion.  He's making the trip, but I'm unconvinced that he'll play this evening, more likely making his return against Cal over the weekend. 

Unfortunately, the roster scramble that squeaked CU past Utah won't be as effective against the versatile Cardinal.  The Utes are plodding and predictable on offense.  Take away Washburn, like 'Dre was able to, and they essentially cease to be a threat.  Stanford is a different animal, and CU will be forced to pick their poison this evening.  Who does Roberson guard?  Will it be Dwight Powell, or Josh Huestis?  My guess is Powell, leaving Xavier Johnson to guard Huestis.  No offense to 'Big X,' but I like that matchup if I'm a Stanford fan. (... and this isn't the kind of matchup where Shane can be counted on for extended relief minutes...)

Huestis could be on track for a big night.

Additionally, Huestis was saddled with deep foul trouble for most of the first game, only playing 19 minutes, and never really finding a rhythm.  His extended presence against the depleted CU front line could be the difference.

Beyond the matchup tango, I'm also concerned about the Cardinal having a much better shooting night.  Back in January, the Cardinal shot well below (- 10%) their in-conference average from deep.  Throughout conference play, they've been posting the league's best 3-point shooting percentage, hitting 40% of all attempts, and I expect them to shoot closer to that level at home. 

On the flip side, Stanford holds the league's worst 2-point shooting percentage (42.6%), and a below-average offensive rebounding rate (28.5%) in Pac-12 play.  I chalk those sagging numbers to the legacy of departed 2012 seniors Josh Owens and Andrew Zimmerman.  Stanford is just a different team this season without their gritty interior play.  As a result, even if Huestis has a big game, the Cardinal is very beatable if those threes aren't falling.

Prediction - 

I just don't like the fact that Josh is questionable.  Without him, the matchups no longer favor CU, and depth becomes a big issue.  'The Young Fundamental" could always surprise me by running out of the tunnel, but I think it's a long shot. 

Huestis has a big night, Stanford gets hot from deep, and the Buffs have to look to a win over Cal to salvage the trip.

Stanford 72 - CU 64

GO BUFFS!  PROVE ME WRONG, AND BEAT THE CARDINAL!