2013 Utah Basketball Preview #2

Oh, hey stupid snowstorm.  So nice of you to come in.  I don't know why there wasn't more chemical/salt/sand laid down for your arrival, but it is what it is.

I'm sure you'll make driving into Boulder for tonight's game a horror show, but nothing will stop me from seeing my Buffs take on Utah.  So suck it, storm.  Do your worst, and I'll see you around 7pm when I start heading to the game.  

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Tip-off from the CEC is set for 8pm.  Coverage is on the Pac-12 Network, with Mark Johnson and the radio call on 850 KOA.

For reference, my preview from the first game can be found here.

Click below for my preview of the rematch...


When last we met -

Back on Groundhog Day, the Buffs could've used a few extra Bill-Murray-esque cracks at the afternoon, as a 22-point second half hole proved too deep to dig out of.  A valiant comeback attempt nearly stole the win at the death, but a few costly errors in the final minute left CU with a stunning 58-55 defeat at Utah.  It was their first truly "bad" loss of the season.

Try as I might, I can't get the image of Utah's 28-4 run out of my head.  From the 4:52 mark of the first half through the 11:46 mark of the second, CU shot 1-14 from the floor, and looked worse than I thought possible.  It was a 13 minute nightmare that nearly derailed the season.  Outside of that stretch, the Buffs managed to play +21 ball over 27 minutes, which makes me wonder if someone slipped a mickey into the Gatorade.

It was a combination of strong interior Ute defense, and the Buffs getting int heir own way.  From: the BDC

Maybe it was the Rick Majeras tribute at halftime firing up UteNation, maybe it was a lack of focus on the mid-week trip to SLC, or maybe it was just the presence of my friend @BuffOfSpades.  Whatever the reason, the basketball gods wreaked havoc on CU through the crux of the game.

To their credit, despite everything going against them, the Buffs showed plenty of grit in the face of ugly defeat.  Saddled with that 22-point deficit, it would've been easy for them to give up, but they played their butts off in a last-ditch effort to save themselves from embarrassment.  A much needed timeout gave the team time to regroup, and they responded with a 27-7 run that completely swung momentum.  When Spencer Dinwiddie hit a jumper with 56 seconds left to cut the deficit to one, even the Ute players had to believe that they were going to choke it away.

Spencer almost had enough to save the Buffs from defeat... almost.

Fouled on the play, Spencer went to the line with a chance to tie.  Unfortunately, the sophomore guard, who has shot over 85% from the line in conference play, missed this crucial freebie, leaving the Buffs with work to do.  A solid defensive possession kept the score frozen at 56-55 with 19 seconds left.  Dinwiddie, looking to redeem himself for the FT miss, brought the ball up on the left wing... but lost it out of bounds when a bump from the Ute defender disrupted his dribble.  Spencer looked for the bailout foul call, but none was coming, and the Buffs were forced to play the fouling game with only 12 seconds to go.  Utah would sink both ensuing free throws, but the door was still open for overtime.  Once again Dinwiddie brought the ball up, and once again he came up short in the final minute, missing the last second three point attempt.

It was rough finish for a player so often at the heart of great scenes in Black and Gold.  He had scored 10 of his team-high 18 points in the comeback, but couldn't push the team over the finish line.

I look for Spencer to go off this evening to make up for it.


Since then... -

Utah has been Utah, losing three of four, yet surprising the overachieving ASU Sun Devils with a 60-55 win last week. That's their M.O. - drop most games, but play good teams tough enough to steal a shocker every now and then. The Buffs learned that lesson the hard way.

How ASU loses to Utah, and then turns around to beat us, I'll never know.

If Utah could only find a way to beat the WSUs and Stanfords of the league, they'd be in contention for an NIT berth.  As it is, another dreary season of Ute basketball is coming to a close with them struggling to stay out of last place. 

They still have yet to score more than 65 points in a conference game this season, so any CU effort that includes crossing that magical number (approximately one point per possession) should end in victory.


Why thing could be different -

There's been no official word, but if you think Josh Scott is playing tonight (or next week, for that matter), you're nuts.  The combination of Bachynski elbow and hardwood floor probably means his brain is still sloshing around five days later.  As a result, with CU's primary pivot on the sideline, Utah will be able to leverage their already large advantage in the paint to its fullest extent.

Expect the Buffs to turn to a heavy dose of Shane Harris-Tunks to counter Ute star Jason Washburn.  This may be me trying to talk myself into something again, but I don't think this is the worst thing in the world.  Shane can match up well with traditional, bulky centers (remember his strong moments against Colton Iverson in the CSU game), and is coming in off of a decent performance against ASU.  Since I have no choice, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt headed into this one.

Gonna need a big night from Shane to make up for Josh's absence.

You might be thinking that Ben Mills would be on call this evening with post reserves running thin, but I'm pretty sure Coach Boyle will leave the baby giraffe on the bench unless things get really desperate.  If Shane is proving grossly ineffective, Boyle will probably go small, and just try to run Utah out of the gym.

While the Buffs are left scrambling to cover the paint with the loss of Scott, the Utes are enjoying life with Jordan Loveridge back in the fold.  A hyper-extended knee kept him out of the first game, but the freshman power forward has returned after missing only one start.  Since his recovery, he's been averaging 10/4, a little below his season averages, but I haven't heard of any lingering issues.


Prediction -

Were the current standings to hold into the conference tournament, CU would once again be saddled with Utah in the first round.  No one wants another dose of last season's opening round snooze-fest, so best to beat them tonight, and enjoy a nice stretch run to climb out of 6th place.

I expect that a dead crowd, an unfocused team, and a bunch of ugly roster combinations will keep things close, but the Buffs aren't about to start dropping two straight games at home, no matter the circumstances.  Spencer redeems himself for the final minute in SLC, and CU cracks 65 to leave Utah with no path to victory.

CU 66 - Utah 59

GO BUFFS!  PROVE ME RIGHT, AND BEAT UTAH!