2013 ASU Basketball Preview #2

Well that was fun.

With numerous regional luminaries in attendance (OMG, JOHN ELWAY! ALEC BURKS!), revenge was served over the course of CU's 71-58 win over #9 Arizona.  It may not have come as much of a bottom-line surprise, but it did come with a court-storming and an over-rated chant.  The Buffs now boost their resume with a second top-50 RPI win in as many weeks, and are back in contention for a first-round bye in the upcoming Pac-12 tournament.

Happy times in Boulder.  From: the BDC

There was no way any Pac-12 team was going to come in a beat CU in that atmosphere.  Backed by a packed house and a C-Unit at the top of it's game, the Buffs couldn't have asked for a better home court advantage.  It was everything I want the CEC to be: hot, sweaty, loud, dark, and hostile.  Given that setup, only a few teams in all of college basketball have a hope in hell of cracking the Buffs at home, and Arizona, as good as they may be, isn't one of them.

The big star of the game was Spencer Dinwiddie.  The young bucket-getter followed up his perfect night in Corvallis with another strong performance leading the team.  21 points on 5-9 shooting (9-9 from the line!) to go along with seven assists (a career high) paced the squad.  More than that, however, many of his second half buckets-gotten were huge.  A three out of a timeout in the second half halted a 6-0 'Zona run.  After the 'Cats had cut the deficit to six with 11 minutes to go, he assisted on one three before notching a layup and another three to balloon the lead back out to 14.

Spencer dropped dimes and buckets all game long. From: BuffStampede.com

Of course the other big story from the stat sheet was the monster games had by everyone named Xavier.  It didn't come as much of a shock, considering how well he's been playing in Pac-12 games, but Xavier Johnson had another monster effort, dropping 19/9 on 7-9 shooting (4-5 from deep).  The freshman forward hit numerous key baskets throughout the game, and showed flashes of just how good he will be in future years.  The bigger surprise was the contributions from freshman guard Xavier Talton.  Infrequently used mostly as a stop-gap, the Sterling, CO native has been playing well of late, and it translated into seven minutes of high energy play that netted him six points and two steals.  Combined, the Xaviers came to ball, and it boosted the Buffs well past the point that 'Zona could be expected to contend.

Xavier was huge for the Buffs.  From: BuffStampede.com

Overall, CU once again lit up Arizona from deep.  In my preview, I openly fretted that CU couldn't possibly match their 9-20 effort from Tucson.  They didn't match it, they in fact improved upon it, attacking the corners to notch 9-17 shooting from behind the arc. On the defensive end, the Buffs muted Arizona stars Solomon Hill and Mark Lyons to a combined 38% shooting from the floor with seven turnovers.

All around, just a solid night from everyone, from players to coaches to fans.

But the journey isn't over yet.  The story of the 2012-13 Buffaloes isn't even close to its final chapter, and is certainly far larger than any one game against Arizona.  There's another huge matchup on the docket for Saturday evening, and I hope both the team and the fans bring the focus an execution that they had against Arizona back into the CEC for their tilt with Arizona State.

Tip-off from the roiling Coors Events Center is set for 7pm tomorrow.  Those not in the area can catch the action on ESPNU.  If you prefer, Mark Johnson will have the call on 850 KOA.

For reference, my preview from the first game can be found here.

Click below for my preview of the rematch...



When last we met - 

From the opening tip, it appeared as if the goings on in Tucson were already behind the Buffs.  They raced out to a quick 13-point lead before the second media timeout, and seemed poised to cruise.  But it wasn't to be as ASU quickly regained composure, forcing doubt into the equation.  By halftime, CU's lead was down to three points, and a seven minute stretch late in the second frame where the Buffs were held scoreless proved decisive.  CU dropped a game they should've been able to win, falling 65-56 in Tempe.

The (*ahem*) big issue was the play of 7-2 Canadian behemoth Jordan Bachynski.  The junior center clogged up the lane, blocking nine shots to go along with his 16/7 performance.  The Buffs, deprived of their dribble-drive slashes at the rim, were suddenly a non-factor on offense, and only scored 23 points in the second half, all but four of which came from jumpers and free throws.

CU had no answer for the strutting Lurch... er, Bachynski... in Tempe.

In addition, while the Buffs held the dynamic Jahii Carson to only five points in 38 minutes of play (the only time he's been below double-figures in Pac-12 action), Sun Devil forwards Carrick Felix and Jonathan Gilling knifed the Buffs for a combined 32/18.

For CU, Spencer Dinwiddie had a solid game in defeat, producing 19/2/4.  For the most part, however, it was just an ugly night.  The Buffs shot a woeful 2-19 from deep, and only got to the line eight times.  Not exactly a recipe for success.


Since then... - 

ASU had been shocking the West Coast by roaring out to a 6-2 start to Pac-12 play, including impressive home upsets of CU and UCLA.  Suddenly, a team I thought very little of, was in contention for the league title, and at worst a first round bye in the Pac-12 tournament.  So impressive was their start that I included three Sun Devils - Bachynski, Felix, and Carson - on my mid-season All-Pac-12 team.

The emergence of Carson has been huge for ASU.

The key to their strong start was their league best in-conference eFG (50.3%).  They're still highly efficient, rarely turning over the ball (only 16% turnover rate in Pac-12 play), and hit seemingly everything inside the arc (50% on all two-point shots).  It also helps when your freshman point guard establishes himself as one of the leagues' best.  Carson, who rarely leaves the floor (over 36 min per night, conference leader), brings 17 points and five assists every night.

That whole playing above their heads thing seems to have caught up with them, however, as they've dropped three of their last four, including a deflating loss at Utah Wednesday night, to slip into a four-way tie for 4th place.  The problem seems to be defensive, as they've allowed near 50% shooting in those three defeats.  In addition, they've been seriously struggling from the line, shooting an in-conference worst 59.5% (and you thought the Buffs were bad).

That's a bad way to start off your stretch run... From:  AZCentral.com

What's more, the giant Bachynski seems to be slowing down.  Over the last four games he's only scored 20 points and recorded five blocks.

With a road-heavy end to their regular season schedule (four of their final six are away from home), and a slowing down of their best interior performer, their tenuous hold on a top-4 spot seems to be slipping away.


Why things could be different - 

The biggest difference I see between this matchup and the one from January is that the Buffs will be ready for     the real Sun Devils, the team capable of competing for the Pac-12 title.  I underestimated them opening week.  I think the team did, too.  There will not be a repeat tomorrow.

Make no mistake, the Sun Devils are legit, in as much as they are contenders in an inconsistent Pac-12, but I get the feeling that they've hit a wall.  I expect to see a much different squad from the one that beat CU last month.

Still though, CU's Achilles' heel remains interior height.  If you have a capable/competent big man who is anywhere near seven feet tall, you have a great chance to make the Buffs sweat.  Bachynski still looms like the Colossus of Rhodes in the paint, even though he's slowed down as of late.  The biggest question headed into tomorrow night is whether the Buffs have a plan to deal with the Canadian giant.

One last note, even though I don't think CU is as good of a three point shooting team as they showed last night (9-17), they aren't even close to being as bad as they showed in Tempe (2-19 from deep).  If the Buffs can get any production from beyond the arc, they'll improve over last month's performance.


Prediction - 

Woof, this is a quick turnaround for the Buffs, both emotionally and physically. While ASU was relaxing in Boulder last night, CU was playing their "biggest game of the season" against the UofA.  I'm really scared that the Buffs come out flat in the wake of that emotional high.  They key will be circling the wagons and keeping the crowd in the action while they search for rhythm.

On the flip side, with Bachynski struggling in recent weeks, the Sun Devils look like a completely different squad - a squad CU should be able to handle.  I'll say the Buffs find their groove in the nick of time, and pull ahead down the stretch in a reversal of last month's game in Tempe.

CU 65 - ASU 56

GO BUFFS!  PROVE ME RIGHT, AND BEAT THE SUN DEVILS!