Cal Preview

Now that the business of taking little brother back behind the woodshed is over with, it's time to move on with the season. Up next the Buffs travel (along with 7-10,000 of their closest friends) to Bould... I mean Berkley, California to take on the Cal Bears. This is a game that could determine the outlook of the rest of the season. Win, and the schedule suddenly sets up nicely for a 7-8 win season. Lose and .500 could be a tough get. Beyond that it's a 12-Pac preview game, and we don't want to look like idiots in front of our new neighbors...

(There's gonna be a lot of Black and Gold there Saturday)

CU hasn't won a true road game since Texas Tech in 2007. That's a long time. Altogether, Dan Hawkins is 2-20 in games not played in the state of Colorado. That's not good. Can these Buffaloes buck the trend? Can they finally break the Hawk road jinx?

Breaking it in Berkley won't be easy. Sure, Cal's 52-3 drubbing of UC-Davis means essentially dick since the Aggies are a D-1AA school, but they took care of business the same as CU and have a high level of confidence coming into the game.

Offensively, true-freshman Keenan Allen showed a lot of promise in the first game by hauling in 4 catches for 120 yds and a TD, TB Shane Vereen is a great runner and had 2 TD's last week, and QB Kevin Riley (recruited by CU) had a very efficient 14-20-248-3-0 stat line last week. Cal is loaded with speed and talent all over their offense, and will be a tough challenge for a defense that only had to face a one dimensional CSU offense last week. Many football pundits (and Utah and Cal fans) have criticized offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig's play calling, but with a full year with the current players under his belt, I would expect overall offensive consistency.
(Kevin Riley is a solid Sr QB. He'll be a good test of the defense)

Defensively, Cal held UC-Davis to 81 yards last week. I don't care who you play, that's damn impressive. Interestingly, however, they didn't force any turnovers (hrmmm...). Honestly, it's real tough to tell what a defense has when their 1-AA opponent starts a true freshman at QB. I expect them to be a significant upgrade over CSU's D, but that's not exactly hard. They are lead by LB Mike Mohamad. They do have a weakness at DB (which contributed to the team's low preseason Pac-10 ranking. They were typically picked to finish 6th or 7th.) , which may be exploitable by the brand-new receiving corps.

The Buffs come in having a right to feel good about themselves. The win last Saturday was solid. Not necessairly impressive, but solid. In addition, they played well in last years nationally televised loss to Oklahoma St (their last road game). When I hear them talk about this being a "business trip," and having confidence, I don't immediately assume that they're blowing smoke. The Buffs feel that they will win this game. And I sort of agree with them.

Believe me, this legit optimism is rare from me. As I mentioned last week, I am cautiously optimistic about this team. While, I've been burned before, things are going too damn well. How good did Travon Patterson look in a CU uniform last week? His punt returns shortened the offensive playing field and his speed on routes prevents safeties from doubling Scotty and Toney. The running games needs a little work, but Torres was impressive for a freshman. Defensively, Jon Major looks like something fantastic and the corners are allowed to stand "on an island" which frees our safeties to both run support and double the slot receiver. There is a lot of flexibility with this team, and the talent compliments itself in key areas.

(Travon's USC speed makes a ton of difference. From: The BDC)

I honestly think CU will have a good showing this week. Besides the support factor (A full 10th of the stadium could be wearing black and cheering on the Buffs!) CU traditionally does well in western roadtrips. Sure Cal is a major upgrade in speed and size over CSU, but I think CU ends up matching up pretty well against them none-the-less. The Buff WR's should get open, and if Tyler can find them, the ground game should open up, allowing CU to control field position and the clock. On defense, I'm interested to see if the promise shown last week was a factor of CSU's impotence or a sign of good things to come. Cal isn't any where close to being the best team in the Pac-10, and, while they are talented, I think CU should find a way to beat them.

(I'm trying... but it's so hard to be optimistic about a Hawk lead CU team)

This is the first time Hawk has brought the Buffs to his home state, and I think he'll bring back a win. I wouldn't necessairly be surprised with a loss, but I would be with a blowout (either way). Final score CU 24-Cal 20.

Go Buffs!