Against Cal and in the 1st half against Hawaii CU was beset with short defensive fields and an ineffective running game. Routinely, in both instances, penalties and mistakes by the offense and special teams gave the defense short fields. Against Hawaii the defense was able to hold, against Cal they couldn't (that's the difference between playing a BCS school and a WAC school, btw). This also affected the running game. Against Cal, CU was held to a miserable 1.8 yards per carry (partially because sack yards are counted against you, but even with that taken into consideration the numbers were bad). In the 1st half against Hawaii, CU was held by a poor run defense team to barely over 3 yards per carry. CU couldn't get a hold on the field position battle, continued to put their defense in bad situations, and couldn't keep the other team's offense on the sidelines: that's why the Buffs struggled.
Against CSU and in the 2nd half against Hawaii, the opposite was true. CU was able to give the Buff defense a break by limiting turnovers and mistakes that could lead to poor defensive field position. Additionally, against CSU the Buffs had a deceivingly small 3.3 yards per carry (much of the 2nd half CU ran the ball to kill clock, not necessarily gain yards) and in the second half against Hawaii CU gained 5.8 yards per carry on 33(!) rushes. The Buffs ground down the opponents defense, kept our defense fresh(-ish), and limited big mistakes. It's football 101: run the football and limit mistakes and you'll win.
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Georgia on my mind
(It's a good excuse to play a little Ray)
Hopefully, CU has learned some lessons from their 1st 3 games because a Georgia team with their back up against the wall is coming into town. After an opening win against lowly Louisiana-Laffayette, the Bulldogs have strung up 3 consecutive losses to SEC opponents. For all intents an purposes, if Georgia loses this game their season may well be over (at 1-4, I think it would be very hard for them to scrape up 5 wins in 7 games to make bowl eligibility). Georgia is in a serious funk this season. Team leader A.J. Green was suspended 4 games for selling his game used jersey, the Bulldogs have had 10 players arrested over the past year (including 1 this past weekend) and they just got off losing away to Mississippi State for the first time since the Truman administration (1951).
Offensively, Georgia will get a big boost this week from the return of WR A.J Green. Green is a probable high first round NFL draft pick next April, and will pose a challenge for CU's two outstanding corners. The Bulldog offense is lead by Freshman (RS) QB Aaron Murray who, while carrying the freshman label, hasn't really played like a freshman this year. It's not his fault that the 'dogs are 0-3 in SEC play. RB's Washaun Ealey and Caleb King are young, but talented. Honestly, this is a talented group who will pose match-up problems all over the field; this is a genuine SEC team with SEC talent, and while I may mock them from time to time, they aren't the best conference in the nation for nothing. The key will be locking up Green. If he's hauling down first down catches then the running game will open up and CU is in for a world of hurt.
(Hopefully, we don't see much of this Saturday night)
Defensively, the Bulldogs run the dreaded 3-4 scheme designed to stop the run. This is the same scheme that held the Buffs to 1.8 yards per carry against Cal 3 weeks ago. However, I sat down to watch the MSU game last week and saw a Bulldog defense who couldn't stop the run on short yardage. MSU ran a weird version of the option-read run scheme (one more focused on the inside hand off than an outside sweep) that seemed to get some yards leading me to think that CU's pistol based run schemes could be effective. One primary difference is that MSU's QB was a big dude who could just bulldoze to get a few yards. If Tyler starts to Bulldoze, we'd better get the stretcher ready. Georgia has been vulnerable to the passing game, but they were going up against, particularly in Arkansas, teams who can pass a whole hell of a lot better than CU can. Safety Baccarri Rambo and Linebacker Akeem Dent lead the Bulldog defense, and should be all over the field Saturday night.
Overall, Georgia should get a big boost from having Green back on the field. The offense really struggled last week, only getting things going in garbage time against a bad Mississippi State team. Green will make things easier for them; think of him like a B12 shot to the arm. I expect them to be a team fired up and desperate for a win. They will have a bunch of fans there (although we've seen what that can get you *cough* Cal *cough*) and this is a big game for them as well as us.
Prediction time
If it wasn't for off of the intangibles, I don't think CU would have much of a shot at winning. Not only is Georgia in a 3 week funk, but this is only the 4th time in 75 years that Georgia has played a regular season game west of the Mississippi. Additionally, a night game in Folsom is a thing of beauty. The crowd will be fired up, and maybe some of that 1990 magic will be in the air. The players will be filled with pride and history after being addressed by Coach Mac and other members of that '90 team. They should know by kickoff what this game means to both the history of the program and the fans.
(The crowd should be intense as we remember our national title)
CU is 7th in the nation in stopping the run and 40th in total defense. While the numbers are slightly skewed by Hawaii's insistence on passing, I do feel that CU is in the top 30-45 defenses in the country: good, not great. They will be strongly tested this weekend. With Green back, Georgia has the potential to really get going offensively, and it'll be up to corners Jimmy Smith and Jalil Brown to keep tabs on him. This is a big statement game for those two young men, and they know it. Scouts will be watching and it's time to go earn their future paychecks. If they can keep Green from producing a handful of big plays, CU should stand tall on defense assuming the offense doesn't stab them in the back by giving Georgia short fields all evening.
Offensively, CU will struggle. This is an inconsistent unit beset by mental errors, penalties and a discombobulated offensive scheme. The key to a good Buffs offense with the current talent would be to get Tyler out of the pocket. When Tyler is out of the pocket good things happen: defenses have to respect his legs, the receivers can get open for big plays (see Clemmons, Toney), and big holes can open up in the ground game. Unfortunately, the CU coaching staff want to keep their "Ferrari in the garage" so to speak. They have drilled Tyler into staying in the pocket, essentially turning into half a QB. Were he to get out and pose a dual-threat more often he could be an effective and dangerous weapon. As currently used, however, he is little better than Cody. I expect this trend to continue. Additionally, while CU has increased carries each week (from 35 to 42 to 52) they are only getting a total average of 3.4 yards per rush; that is just not enough for a team that needs to run the ball effectively. It's because of this that I expect Georgia to hold the Buffs offense in check for most of the game.
While I've waffled all week, I think, in the end, it will come down to if the offense can cut the mistakes. I have seen nothing to this point that makes me believe they can. The game will turn into a low scoring grind 'em out slug fest, much like the previous 2 blackouts (FSU in '07 and West Virginia in '08). Unfortunately, CU will fall in the end 17-13. (I feel bad just saying that) Don't get me wrong, CU could win; this is a game that sets up well, after all. I want to think a special teams play or two could save us, I want to believe in the evening game magic, I want to believe that we'll stick with the no huddle and that it will give Georgia headaches; I just have a hard time actually believing in a team that continues to commit so many penalties and give their defense so many short fields. Maybe CU did turn the corner in the 2nd half of the Hawaii game, but I need to see it against a BCS school before I'll believe it's for real. Sorry.
GO BUFFS!
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