Pac-10 Move News Reax - UPDATED

UPDATE 9/21, 1:56p - So Yeah, my spidey sense was apparently wrong. I figured the Regents would drag their feet, but it seems we're very close to getting a resolution. This ESPN article talks about the movement. Apparently Oragnebloods is reporting that the Big XII will "let" CU go. Whatever, we're still going to have to forefeit some money (they still seems to be some confusion over forfeit vs pay; I'll trust the CU lawyers and Ringo over Chip Brown and the UT PR machine, but yadda yadda....) and we're dumping their ass on the curb, leaving regardless of the final scenario; if they want to say "let" they can. I still say we hold out til they break on the amount of the revenue forfeiture; they're already talking deferred forfeiture, so why not push it. I have a feeling they want us here less than we want to get out of the Big XII a year early...

--

Exciting news: the regents are meeting tonight to possibly talk about moving to the Pac-10 a year earlier which gives me an opportunity to go over the move.

As has been bemoaned frequently, CU's Regents only agreed to move in 2012 while Nebraska, Utah and Boise St all planned their moves for next year. To many it seems that, while CU was the first out of the gates on BCS conference moves, they're behind everyone else in actually arriving. This is not necessarily the case.

True, CU has been caught in a bind. The Regent's 2012 mandate temporarily binds Mike Bohn and Phil DiStefano's hands (but only to the point that they has to go back to the Regents to get further approval to move the timetable forward), but this wasn't necessarily a mistake. At the time, the Big XII was dissolving with UT and 4 of it's little brothers following CU west. Because of the 2yr language in the Big XII charter, and the possibility of a larger move to the Pac-whatever, the Regents were wise to only officially approve the 2yr route. I can only imagine they didn't afford the Athletic Department follow-up authority on the 1yr route at the time because of the pending discussions both with the Pac-10 and the Big XII over exit fees (or because they're control freaks. either way...).

I say fees, but the reality is that CU will not have to pay one dime to leave the Big XII. That's right. Fuck Chip Brown and his $40 million "straight-cash-homey" ramblings. Don't listen to David Ubben and his ESPN schlock. CU leaves having to pay nothing. The discussions are over revenue not received. The language in the Big XII charter is about revenue with-held from the member institution, not about penalty fees. According to estimates, CU will forfeit anywhere from $9.5 to 14 million in Big XII payouts. Yes, that lost revenue will hurt, but not as much as many outsiders think.

Throughout the summer, CU has gone about taking a few steps to mitigate the effects of the buyout. In addition to the $500k to be received from Coach Bzdelik as a result of his move to Wake Forest, CU will also receive $1.4 mil as a result of the football trip to Ohio St next year. (That number will eventually increase when the game gets picked up on television.) CU has also received assurances from the Pac-10 that they will help us defer the loss in revenues by giving us a cushioning payment and deferring re-payment over a few years-worth of future conference revenues. Remember, with Nebraska leaving next year, there will be no Big XII title game regardless of our conference affiliation; this will decrease potential revenues thus diminishing the "total" financial hit. Once again, Bohn and his staff are smart people, they wouldn't have sought this move if they didn't see financial gain. Not only are the doom-and-gloom stories over-wrought, but the future financial gains will make us entirely forget these discussions.

Finally, I don't expect anything final to come from tonight's meeting. More than likely the Regents will just vote to give Bohn and DiStefano the authority to further explore 2011 options. There is still the possibility of the Bix XII blinking and letting CU walk away with more money than currently thought; why would the Regents end that possibility tonight? Afterall, there will be further consternation with Nebraska over their early exit. The main point is that the efforts of DiStefano and Bohn to make an early move to the Pac-12 more financially pallet-able will be heard and discussed. This will make final approval of the early move more likely. This is just the first step, but I still believe that we will be out west this time next year.