(Corey Higgins and the boys try to nab their first conference road win of the year tonight in Manhattan)
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Opponents Season - I'm beginning with the interesting part. The 'Cats started the season as the #3 team in the nation, and a popular darkhorse pick for the national title. Since then it's been a series of minor to major struggles. A 14 point loss to Duke was to be understood, if not expected, but back to back low-scoring efforts against Florida and UNLV in mid-December began to give K-State fans pause. Two days later, on December 23rd, Santa brought K-State fans the worst Christmas gift ever: Senior stars Jacob Pullen and Curtis Kelly were caught by the NCAA accepting impermissible gifts and suspended for 3 and 6 games respectively.
Since then it's been a rough ride for the 'Cats. While they've won 3 of 4 games (all without Pullen), all 3 wins came against very weak opponents. Last Saturday, with Pullen back for his first game since the suspension was handed down, the 'Cats lost to their first quality opponent played since UNLV as they fell by 14 to Oklahoma State in their Big XII opener.
(Pullen and the 'Cats had a tough time getting on track in Stillwater on Saturday)
Overall, at 12-4 (0-1) on the season, even considering the suspensions, this can't be what the preseason voters thought they'd be getting out of KSU (although many thought that they were overrated). They're turning the ball over at a prodigious pace (18.5 per game in their 4 loses, 21 against OSU), and can't hit free throws to save their life (57.7% on the year). Sure you would expect problems in these areas from a team with so many underclassmen playing significant minutes, but these are Achilles Heel-type numbers.
They're best at defense. Kenpom has them in the top 30 defensive teams in the nation and they hold their opponents to less than 64 points per game and under 40% shooting on the year.
Coaching - Angry Frank Martin has run the K-State program since one-and-done Bob Huggins left after the '07 season. Besides bringing an impressive screaming voice (I dare you to find a picture where he's not screaming) and a spectacular uni-brow to the table, Coach Martin is also a damn fine coach. He's 84-36 (31-18 in conference) in his 3.5 seasons as a head coach, and shows great skill in getting talented young basketball players to decide to ply their trade in Manhattan, KS.
(He's always so... angry)
He gets his players to play very physical. His K-State teams are known for getting up in your face, and making you earn every point and trip to the free throw line. When his 'Cats take the floor, and are involved in a competitive game, expect blood. I'm not going to say his teams is dirty, but they can toe the line every now and then
Key Players - Senior guard Jacob Pullen was named both the Big XII preseason player of the year and a national preseason All-American. He's also back to playing after his 3 game suspension last month. Even while shaking off the rust against OSU he dropped 20 points. He's one of the most dangerous guards in the country, and, besides being the majority of the reason that K-State was so well thought of before the season started, will be a tough challenge for whichever Buffalo ends up guarding him. (Specifically to that point, I'd like to see us put a taller guard, like Corey, on him. Corey's got the quicks to stay with him, and might keep him from getting too many comfortable looks at the basket)
(Pullen is a stellar player, and the Buffs need to contain him if they hope to win)
The rest of the K-State squad is reliant on a infusion of young talent. Sophomores Rodney McGruder, Nick Russell, Martavious Irving, and Wally Judge (6-9 former McDonald's All-American) join freshman Will Spradling to form the backbone of young Wildcat talent. Watch out especially for the 6-4 guard McGruder. He's shown great improvement over his freshman year, and, now that he's getting the minutes, is proving to be a reliable threat. He also gets a high number of rebounds for a guard (6.6 per game).
Jamar Samuels, a bastard of a junior forward at 6-7, rounds out the K-State rotation. His points have dipped a bit since last year, and he still can't hit his free throws (59%), but he should do damage against the Buffs weak interior line.
I'd like to talk about senior forward Curtis Kelly, but I'll save him for the return leg when he will no longer be suspended for breaking NCAA bylaws.
Prediction - The Wildcats may still be undefeated at home, but this is not the same K-State team that was getting all of that preseason hype. There is weakness, at least until Kelly is back (and he wont be for the CU game). In addition, CU's major advantage at the free throw line (78%-57%) could play a large factor. Over the Frank Martin years, CU-KSU matchups have been foul heavy affairs, and I expect no different. If CU can get to the line enough, they'll give the Wildcats fits. I also like the fact that not only does CU cause a lot of turnovers (over 15 per game) but KSU gives up a lot (also over 15 per game). Considering the Buffs propensity to run and gun, this could lead to some much needed easy baskets.
However, while there are a lot of positives for the Buffs, I don't see CU as being able to pull this one off. If it were in Boulder, sure, but this is a big challenge. A tough, physical K-State team, hungry to get back on track, and playing in front of their home crowd, will be a damn tough team to beat tonight. I certainly wouldn't expect to see CU score 90 tonight. Against a defense this feisty, on the road no less, I fear the Buffs will struggle to be their typically explosive selves. Unless Burks plays out of his mind again, the Buffs will fall.
Jacob Pullen wasn't the preseason conference pick for player of the year for nothing, and he wills his team to victory tonight. Final score: KSU 73 CU 69. Hope I'm wrong... again.
GO BUFFS!
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