| CU just has to put that lousy performance behind them, and focus on righting the ship against the woeful Sooners. From: The Post |
I don't want to call this game a must win; it's far too early for that. Should CU lose Saturday morning, but sweep KU, UT, and A&M at home, all will be forgiven. However, it's best not to have to rely on such a turn of events to make the Tournament. Certainly CU's road to the dance is much smoother with a win @OU than without one. Additionally, a loss here and the bandwagon may just breakdown, and it could be me and 6,000 of my closest KU friends at the game next Tuesday. To be sure, the game Saturday morning isn't season critical, but it's damn important in many respects.
This game will also mark the final time the men's team plays OU in regular season play, and so it will mark my farewell to the Sooners. I touched on my relationship with the other "Big Red" back in October when I wrote my football preview, and I wouldn't want to spoil the vitriol and hatred spewed in that post by re-hashing my history with that school (Although I do have a good story about how I managed to piss their entire basketball band off. Just keep playing "Boomer Sooner" guys, I'm sure it'll eventually change into a song worth hearing.). I will simply say: good riddance OU, I hope you enjoy taking it from UT for the next few years while they plan to unceremoniously dump you at the curb for independent status and buckets of cash.
Click Below for my Preview
Opponents Season so far - In two words: not good. Prior to beating the lowly Texas Tech Red Raiders at home Tuesday night, they had lost to every team from a power conference that they had played. Hell, the Sooners even managed to lose to Div-2 Chaminade in the Maui Invitational (that's not a good sign). To be fair, none of those non-conference losses was at home, but still.
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| If tiny Chaminade can do it, then CU should be able to beat OU |
They don't do too many things well, and are in fact horrible in quite a few. 234th in points/game (66.9), 307th in rebounding (31.7/game), 316th in allowing 3-point shooting (38.8%), and 281st in turnover percentage (22.9%). Outside of being decently effective from inside the arc (52%) they're a whole lot of average with some blaring awful sprinkled in for flavoring. After all, you don't lose to the Silver Swords of Chaminade by accident; well, unless you're Ralph Sampson's #1 Virginia in 1982.
The book on this years Sooners states that they're just waiting til next season when they'll take off. That may very well end up being true, but this season they've fighting with Tech for bottom of the league.
Coaching - The Sooners are coached by Jeff Capel; a man who's coaching skills I have regularly belittled. Since arriving in Norman, Coach Capel has lead OU to a 91-60 record but a sub .500 record in conference (33-35). On the plus side, he has taken them to two tournament appearances and an Elite-8 run in '09; however this was all accomplished while utilizing the services of super-freak Blake Griffin. Blake is a once in a generation talent, and it'd take a true moron to fuck it up. It's of no small note to me that his record sans-Blake Griffin is a paltry 38-42 (11-25). Hey, when talent like that comes along, feel free to ride it; just don't expect for me to give you too much credit for it.
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| Yell and scream at your guys all you want coach, none of them is Blake Griffin. |
Specifically against the Buffs, I've seen his teams crumble and flail meekly against weak-sauce CU teams. In the Jeff Bzdelik era, Capel was 2-2. Coach Bz damn near embarrassed him twice in '08 (CU won the regular season contest, and barely lost in the conference quarters), and in '09 Coach Bz almost pulled the upset of the century off by nearly beating the Sooners (an Elite-8 team) in Norman. Those two years the Buffs combined conference record was 4-28 (!), and the Sooners were enjoying life with Blake Griffin. There is no way that those CU teams should've been in those games, and it absolutely followed form that in Bz's final year (with Griffin injured on the Clippers bench) the Buffs whupped OU in Boulder. The point is: every time I've seen Capel coach his teams have looked like shit, even with massively more talent than CU had. More to the point, I've come away each time thinking Coach Capel woefully over-matched. Those performances have not left a very good impression, and has poisoned my thought-well against him.
Some will say that I'm just not seeing it with Coach Capel; and hey, maybe I'm blind to his brilliance. Up to this point, however, he just hasn't been impressive, and what success he has had I attribute to talent rather than his coaching ability.
Key Players - The lone senior on the roster is 6-5 guard Cade Davis. He does what seniors usually do and puts up some decent numbers. He chips in 13/5 per night, and he's coming off of a career high 25 points which helped lead the Sooners to their Tuesday night victory over Tech.
The big inside threat is 6-8 sophomore forward Andrew Fitzgerald. He throws in 14/5 per night, but can grab a few offensive boards as he leads the team in the category. He's also the team leader in points, free throws, steals, blocks and fouls. He's a big threat, but he's very prone to fouling and he leads the conference in fouls and fouls per game (although, weirdly, he doesn't have a foul-out posted on statsheet.com). I'd be a little concerned, but he's another relatively undersized forward with foul troubles to boot.
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| Baltimore native Fitgerald is a long, athletic forward who could cause damage, if he can manage to stay away from foul trouble. |
Other players to watch out for are Sophomore 6-4 guard Steve Pledger and 6-6 freshman forward Cameron Clark (4-star and #5 swing forward from last year's recruiting class).
Overall, this is another slightly undersized team who don't a contributor over 6-9. They're also very inexperienced as the Sooners signed an astonishing 8 newcomers this past recruiting cycle.
Prediction - CU hasn't beaten Oklahoma in Norman since 1980. Woof. If that's ever going to change not only is this the year to do it, but it has to be the year to do it as CU heads West after this season. I like CU's chances to finally put that painful streak to bed, get back on track, and head into the Kansas game pumped up with a 4-1 conference record and 2 road wins.
OU is just plain lousy this year. Maybe it'll be better for them and Coach Capel in the future, but this isn't their season, and Saturday won't be their day. They're relatively undersized like the other Big XII teams CU has beaten so far, and, while they are athletic, their inexperience combined with some foul issues should pave the way for a CU victory. I especially look for CU's offense to get back on track. Cory Higgins was virtually non-existent Tuesday night, and he has too much pride and talent to stay quiet for long.
For the record, since I went against all-mighty kenpom with my Nebraska pick and got embarrassed, KP gives us a 69% chance to win with a score of 75-69. I'll go a little higher, and say that CU gets back to scoring, rebounding, and playing tenacious defense. Winning on the road in the Big XII is never a given, but if there was ever a time to be headed to Norman, its now. Final score CU 84 - OU 70. (Please God let me be right)
GO BUFFS! BEAT THE SOONERS!
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